Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Achtung bitte, eine Botschaft aus der Zukunft: https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/themen/coronavirus/besonderehelden-1-1811518

Now I'm mixed up. BJ tests positive back in March, now has to self isolate after coming in to contact with someone who has tested positive.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/15/boris-johnson-told-to-self-isolate-after-coronavirus-contact

Have they proved anyone can catch it twice? Is it possible to pass it on even if you have already had it? As someone who has already had it i'm concerned and puzzled!

Have they proved anyone can catch it twice?

Yes. A handful of people have caught it twice (two positive tests many months apart).

Passing it on will depend from person to person, irregardless of already having been positive (superspreaders vs 'regular' spreaders). People have tested positive twice. Fernando Gaviria for example.

Edit: meant to reply to @paininthe

Being over cautious? 54 million people had it, a handful twice, some we can name.
You can spread it from antibodies? Something i'm not understanding...

With any virus some people will catch it more than once. No different from measles or chickenpox. It's just the vast majority of people don't.

The more useful information (which they probably need a lot more data to be able to answer) is what percentage of people who've had SARS-Cov-2 before get it again, and, whether they're infectious second time round, whether they're symptomatic second time round, what variation in levels of symptoms there are second time round (compared to first), etc.

Remember that the standard PCR test for SARS-Cov-2 is insanely sensitive. Sensitive enough that you could only have virus particles in the lower part of your nostril (because the body's immune system is dealing with any that make it into the body) due to being in close proximity to soemone but have those swabbed and have a positive test result.

So track and trace is just being really, really cautious.

Just wish we "country" had been as cautious in the beginning, masks, lockdowns...

Looking at the current number of infections I don't think we are being nearly cautious enough.

A few years from now we will understand better but for now 'If you have been in contact with a positive case you isolate, no excuses' seems reasonable to me.

Here that's the rules; isolate and after 5 days have a test. If negative, return to your life, if positive, get on the blower to anyone you had contact with.

I reckon probably 20-30% of my colleagues have either been positive or had significant contact with someone who was. We get staff to choose if it's WfH isolation or medical leave (both are fine); for the most part non-positive people WfH, people who test positive rest up. Obviously that's not the case if your work can't be carried out from home.

I think the biggest problem all along has been lack of support for self isolation - Millions can be spent to dodgy mates hastily setup PPE companies but yet no raise in Statutory Sick pay, no efforts to separate infected people from shared households (lot's of empty hotels at the moment that could do with the money...) Issues with food delivery's etc. It's not just a failure of Test and Trace the Isolate component has been useless aswell.

The £500 they started offering late in the day to people on benefits helps but misses the problem of lots of low-paid workers not on benefits who still can't afford to lose two weeks of work...

Where is here?
I think in the UK there is a general problem of people thinking no symptoms = not ill, or not contagious. The fact that you can be asymptomatic and still spread it is not really being pushed hard enough. Imo.

I had chicken pox three times as a kid, but didn’t know anyone else who got it more than once. Wasn’t a sickly kid other than that, just appears that I didn’t build resistance to one disease.

Luxembourg. Small country, extensive network of private labs, relatively comfortable therefore relatively compliant population. I've only had a few tests but I have colleagues who are on 10+ from the government's mass-test policy or contact tracing. Don't get me wrong, we've had huge growth in numbers, but I have a feeling that's mostly down to the fact 3-5% of the population is tested every day.

For me, the interesting take away about Boris' self isolation is what it says about our post vaccine procedures.

Does this approach mean that even vaccinated people will need to self isolate, until we have a handle on their propensity to spread the virus?

Or perhaps, when sufficient people are vaccinated, we just won't mind if it spreads?

The plan seems to be vaccinate all the vulnerable, elderly, people with underlying health issues, care workers etc.

Healthy under 50's left at the end, which may mean you can let it spread as this group are least likely to end up in hospital, and if fewer do, hospitals will be able to cope.

When sufficient people are vaccinated the virus hopefully hits a lot of dead ends for transmission and the R number plummets. Then it’s freedom.

Until the next one.

yet no raise in Statutory Sick pay

SSP is a joke but then that was true before Covid. Why it takes a pandemic for people to realise that a state safety net is there for everyone and not the scroungers the Daily Mail loves to find is beyond me.

I believe there is a hope other vaccines will become available too so more doses available and everyone gets a jab or two (every 12 months?).

When sufficient people are vaccinated the virus hopefully hits a lot of dead ends for transmission

This is the point under question though isn't it?

If we are asking previously infected people to self isolate, presumably because there is a risk that they are not a transmission dead end, then why would vaccinated people be such a dead end?

(Apologies for the unfortunate use of the 0hraae "dead end")

Yes, some will be transmission routes so while R is high they should all still isolate if they have been in contact with a case. The hope is that enough will be immune so the R goes down comfortably below 1 and all isolation ends.

Where's that operation ouch section when you need it?

I'd have assumed it was to avoid muddying public health messaging*; otherwise the danger is anyone who's just had a cold going 'I must have had Covid - I don't need to isolate'?

*Well, there's a first time for everything...

Yes, some will be transmission routes so while R is high they should all still isolate if they have been in contact with a case. The hope is that enough will be immune so the R goes down comfortably below 1 and all isolation ends.

But R isn't some magic number that changes and we just wait for it to be low enough for things to be cool.

R is determined by things such as self isolation, vaccinated transmission dead ends etc.

'd have assumed it was to avoid muddying public health messaging*; otherwise the danger is anyone who's just had a cold going 'I must have had Covid - I don't need to isolate'?

Was at the 2nd injection stage of the Novavax vaccine trial this morning, the Doctor doing my exam was of this exact same opinion.

Yeh I assume our world leading track and trace system probably doesn't have the facility for you to demonstrate and record you have had a positive test previosuly, so easier to just make everyone isolate than risk confusion