Russian invasion of Ukraine

I recently learned that Austria is getting 90% of it's gas from russia through a pipeline that runs through Ukraine!

Edit: seems to be around 60% now.

That´s true. And Austria still gets at least 81% (April 2024) and up to 98% (December 2023)of its gas from Russia. https://energie.gv.at/hintergrund/import-von-russischem-gas

I don't like that Ukraine probably blew that thing, but then it should never have been built anyway. Also don't know if I'd call Nordstream german.?
And while they might not have helped their cause, we at least are way less dependent on russian gas, and renewables are going up.

aided by the Poles

Who have denied it.

Also, "Hanning, who retired from his spy chief job, did not provide any evidence in support of his claim. Some observers noted that he served under former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who went on to work later for Russian state-owned energy companies, including Nord Stream."

https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/polish-leader-urges-nord-stream-patrons-to-keep-quiet-as-pipeline-mystery-returns-to-spotlight/ar-AA1oYlJo

Ok, probably should not have called Nord Stream German. Let me rephrase that to "considered infrastructure of national importance".

The lessened dependency on gas (regardless if from Russia, the US or Norway) is of course great and most important.

Who have denied it.

This only proves that they don't have someone like Arthur Zimmermann in their midst.
The suspected saboteur was the subject of an international arrest warrant, which they ignored for 2 months. Then, after his escape, they blamed it on some bureaucratic mishap.

If that was gross negligence, incompetence or really aiding a criminal on Poland's side and sabotage on Ukraine's side is expectedly shrouded in propaganda from all sides and the truth will probably be revealed only decades from now. Until then and without new and better information, I rather suspect foul play on Poland's part and probably also Ukraine's as both have good reason to do so due to the Russian attack.

All good, it's just that the „oh let's be friends with Russia because cheap energy bullshit" Germany has been doing for so long makes me real angry.

I wonder why Poland wouldn't be so keen on helping Germany... hmm... there must be some reason...

But also, governments and police. They're both fucking useless here, I don't see why that would differ in Poland. There's probably a carrier pigeon with the suspects named tied to its leg flapping around in a storeroom somewhere in Warsaw.

I once had an arrest warrant for me from the Polish police sent to the Luxembourgish Police. I had a senior officer from the part of the police that handles organised crime here come to work to ask what was going on and why was I a subject of an arrest warrant from Poland for a fraud that took place in the early 2000s in the USA. Turns out that Polish police don't know how the internet works, looked up the whois on a domain, did a bit of half arsed googling, found a judge and off we go.

This sounds like the beginnings of a riveting story.

Not quite as cool but I've had a speeding warning sent to me because some blind old arsehole in some stupid Brexit town can't read numberplates. I was in London and hadn't driven a car for months so I made the police ensure my name was removed from their fake speeding drivers list and told them to tell the idiot that false positives do nothing to help their cause.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-dismisses-ukraines-air-force-commander-2024-08-30/

Seems the Ukrainian air force dropped the ball badly and got 1/6 of their F16s destroyed (unconfirmed reports say they only had 6 anyway).

This is a persuasive argument on why Biden should act now to help Ukraine defeat Russia.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/to-be-or-not-to-be

Surprising no one who has been paying attention, reports leak about a Russian weaponised drone factory in China. Meanwhile, the Chinese Govt denies knowledge or involvement, which can reasonably be assessed as a near zero possibility.

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-has-secret-war-drones-project-china-intel-sources-say-2024-09-25/

Best Korea sending officers and troops to get advanced training in Russia and then real world experience on the battlefield in Ukraine is a twist we could and possibly should have seen coming. They’re not stupid so they probably have a mix of military occupations out there, with spec ops, infantry, artillery, electronics and drone specialists probably making up the bulk. That could really up their game back in Asia, so South Korea will be hiring more Russian specialists soon.

An odd silver lining is that Jabba Jung Un’s dictatorial regime has the same weaknesses as his new bestie’s. It’ll be interesting to see how the top brass cover up the inevitable slaughter of their men if they’re sent to the front in Ukraine. Odds are high they’ll do exactly what Putin’s forces did, and lie through their teeth while eliminating anyone whose truthful report might get them in trouble.

Meanwhile South Korea and Japan watch with baited breath.

Odds are high they’ll do exactly what Putin’s forces did, and lie through their teeth while eliminating anyone whose truthful report might get them in trouble.

That's just business as normal. Even compared to Russia, North Korea has a pretty extremely controlled "media"; not even any pretence of an independent media, just state controlled every where.

I remember watching a undercover documentary years ago with north Korean prisoners working in labour camps in Russia and they didn't even know they weren't so in north Korea, so who knows what the soldiers are being told

Agreed, but war fighting poses unique challenges, and groups that fail to understand and act based on reality tend to struggle the most.

Uniquely for them, their version of reality is the most extremely warped among the world stage. How many losses can they take before the cracks start to show? War brings chaos and makes it more difficult to control information flow. What happens when returning soldiers quietly share the reality they saw abroad, despite best efforts to misinform them? Or when a Russian flank fails because their allies flat out made shit up?

On the flip side, war hardening their soldiers on a modern battlefield would give NK a card that SK can’t play.

NK foreign minister in Moscow now. Chubby probably wants reassurance that Russia remains on the same page.

Looks increasingly likely that NK troops will see action against Ukraine. There’s already heated chat from Ukrainian fighters about getting the first kill against NK, and Ukraine might assess that annihilating North Korea’s assets could make their leadership reconsider how hands-on they want to be in this war.

Also, Ukraine aren’t a global power but they are a resourceful bunch. If NK fires on Ukraine, from wherever, Ukraine will find a way to make something go bang in, or at least closer to, NK.

South Korea are a big arms manufacturer and have only donated humanitarian aid so far, or indirect ammunition purchased through intermediaries, North Korea getting involved will potentially change this.

North Korea getting involved will potentially change this.

I'm not sure of your logic there. I don't see much incentive for the South Korean government to effectively be fighting a proxy war with North Korea.

Well it’s been covered by most news channels this last week about how SK might react.
While they have a historical agreement with russia for port visits of warships they officially condemn the annexation of Crimea, Donbas etc and oppose the war.
They also have strong partnerships with Nato countries as well as allies in the region who are not aligned with russia and China.

While they have a historical agreement with russia for port visits of warships they officially condemn the annexation of Crimea, Donbas etc and oppose the war.

They also have strong partnerships with Nato countries as well as allies in the region who are not aligned with russia and China.

None of this contradicts my point. They could keep doing what they've been doing, be in the same position for all the things you describe, and not be giving NK an excuse to raise tension.

What happens when returning soldiers quietly share the reality they saw abroad, despite best efforts to misinform them?

It's widely believed that they won't be allowed back for that very reason.