Russian invasion of Ukraine

Perplexity tells me that the Ukranian word for falcon is Sokil.
Has a nice ring to it, I'll happily welcome some little Sokils into this world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMuKsFeqFv4

classic season or new season?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Np3s8VZsKXc

I wonder if the Kursk invasion is connected to the arrival of the F16s? The US has approved of the Kursk move. Russia will have to respond by moving troops and weapons around to beef up defences of their very long border with Ukraine. Hopefully Nato will track all the equipment movements, especially the air defence hardware, and tell Ukraine everyything. This could provide an opportunity for F16s to zap it while it's on the move.

I'm sure Ukraine would have done this sooner but getting permission from the Biden administration to cross yet another red line is always an excruciatingly slow process.

There are no experienced soldiers to spare in Russia. The experienced ones are assigned to protect vital infrastructure in the likes of Moscow and St Petersburg. Moving soldiers from the front line back to Rusaia is obviously what Ukraine wants and for that reason I don't think Putin will do it. That's why he looks so furious because he has no answer.

It's a clever move by Ukraine. It must be great for their morale. It's particularly impressive that Russia was apparently taken completely by surprise. Ukraine's security must be very tight. I do hope their follow up plan involves doing serious damage inside Russia with long range missiles and F16s. What would it take for Putin to feel threatened by his own people? Medvedev is already seething.

Gerasimov sacked, FSB takin over:

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1821420008292966817

Putin was obviously briefed by the FSB about the reality and he
appears internally livid as Gerasimov lies to his face by claiming
that Ukrainians have been stopped in the Kursk offensive, with
fantastical Ukrainian causality numbers to boot.

There don't seem to be any credible sources for this.

Exit rumors, more accurately:

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-army-chiefs-absence-fuels-exit-rumors-1936958

Let's hope he doesn't accidentally stab himself to death while shaving.

So far there is no evidence that elite troops are being moved out of the Donbas to fight the incursion. This is good because it means things are going to get a lot worse inside Russia. It also corroborates my theory that Putin cares more about Ukraine than he does about Russia.

Deluded Russians.

This is good because it means things are going to get a lot worse inside Russia.

Can you expand more on your view?

Not to be contrarian, but could Ukraine’s forces hold the ground they’ve taken against Russia’s soldier tsunamis? They don’t seem to have loads of capacity to spare, not in men or in materiel. The US doesn’t want them going on the offensive inside Russia, and right now they’re justifying the incursion because Russia’s been launching bombers and missiles from Kursk, so they seem limited that way as well (although they seem more willing to push against those limits now).

Hopefully it’s another miscalculation by the Kremlin but, given the increased frequency of attacks against small chunks of the eastern front, perhaps they believe they can break through before Ukraine does anything major inside Russia?

Surely it's all just about making the war more real for the Russian people. State media cannot avoid reporting about it right? It's symbolic.

It's unbelievably risky for Ukraine, but its a stunning move thats gone well so far. Beyond the obvious success on the battlefield (currently), they've put themselves back on the top of the global news agenda, boosted morale and publicly given Putin a bloody nose.

I have no idea how they're going to get themselves out of it though. Unless they've been hiding a load of troops somewhere.

We desperately need to see Ukraine treat the civilians in the occupied area well though. For example, when the civilians of Kherson staged a march against the Russian occupiers there were soldiers who shot at them. So conversely, I hope Ukraine are able to allow a few Russian babushkas to vent their frustration and show the world that they can take it on the chin.

If they have enough strength to advance to Kursk, sweep south east towards Belgorod and cut off the Russian front line and attack from behind, possibly Ukraine could advance from the border, and have Russia retreat from areas near Kharkiv.

It’s possible that once the line has been broken a Wagner rebellion size force (maybe 10-20k + armour and air support) could steam roll through a whole swathe of Russia.

Ukraine can pick off with Himars munitions any re-supply convoy coming towards Sudzha.
There are claims, in the videos above, that potentially 1000 Russian troops were eliminated in a single convoy.

It’s rumoured that the Russians are using Chechens as Barrier Troops or anti retreat troops behind their own lines. Remove these and there might be a mass desertion.

Germany has frozen military aid to Ukraine, for 'budgetary' reasons, and certainly not because of pressure from the pro-Russian element in Berlin.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/17/germany-freezes-ukraine-military-aid-as-budget-crisis-hits/#comment

Meanwhile Biden is 'considering' sending long range weapons to Ukraine that could be used inside Russia. Biden must be looking to his legacy now that he won't have another 4 years of 'escalation management.'

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/15/biden-missiles-ukraine-russia-00174147

Isn't the broader picture things are going badly in the Donbas and this is Ukraine trying to establish a stronger position ahead of any talks?

Current reporting suggests they have taken troops from areas that were struggling to send them to Kursk and those areas are reporting zero let up from the Russians or signs they are withdrawing troops from those

They appear to be finding mainly conscripts in Kursk who appear to be as ill prepared and willing to fight as youd imagine

Propaganda works.... assuming this is representing the average Russian, they seem fairly detached from reality
https://x.com/BBCSteveR/status/1825103407092494464?t=8LKijyqk_C7vrI10tHkDRA&s=19

Just finished 'The Russo-Ukranian War' by Serhii Plokhy and am halfway into 'Our Enemies Will Vanish' by Yaroslav Trofimov. One thing I struggle to get my head around is how there ever could be pro-Russian Ukranians. I know the standard answers are "they speak Russian at home" and maybe also "they are brainwashed from watching Russian TV". But still... it's really hard to see how a further integration with Russia would bring any significant benefits they didn't already have with their current arrangement.

Isn't the broader picture things are going badly in the Donbas and this is Ukraine trying to establish a stronger position ahead of any talks?

Certainly seems that way to me. They have no wish to occupy that territory in the long run. It's a bargaining chip and PR win.

Well, the fact that published extracts of the ongoing investigation into Nordstream strongly suggest sabotage of German infrastructure by some Ukrainians (aided by the Poles), has definitely not helped the Ukrainian cause in Germany.