Russian invasion of Ukraine

What's the worst that could happen if things escalate?
https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/1502213464965750788?t=OfO2nqn-VTtjoAf0xl580A&s=19

Terrifying. Here’s a link to the article mentioned in the twitter post

https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/blog/2022/03/what-the-science-says-could-humans-survive-a-nuclear-war-between-nato-and-russia/

And yet people still keep asking for the no fly zone or military intervention.

I dont think thats so strange tbh. What if this was "your" people?

When is enough enough even if it has potential dissastrous effects?

Where do you draw the line? Finland, Sweden?

When do u think its viable to call his bluff?

Good question. It's not just Ukranians saying it, although they do have the most viable reason of course.

To me, enough is never enough for nuclear warfare. Happy to disagree with people if they think there is a line where this becomes acceptable.

No its not an easy question. But lets say putin said he wants the uk or hed start firing nukes? Would u then happily vote for the population to move elsewhere? There is a line somewhere, its just not very clear where it is. For Ukraine and some other ppl that line has allrdy been crossed and i guess i dont think that is particularly strange tbh.

I'd let him have the UK if it meant billions of people didn't have to die in horrific circumstances, and I'd probably say the same for other scenarios.

Good job I'm not the leader of any countries!

Haha yeah well its ppl who feel like u that you would want in a perfect world so..

But yeah thats not likely the best way to deal with the situation, or maybe it is. Thats what nobody really knows i guess.

I support the no fly zone. I don’t believe no fly zone equals ww3 nuclear war at all. That’s still a pretty huge jump to get to that point from shooting down planes.

I might be wrong, but as I understand it no fly zone means NATO forces engaging in combat with Russian Forces, which means WW3. I believe that NATO have said as much?

No fly zone also means no humanitarian support, because it's nobody flys, not Russia can't fly.

I'm very much happy to be corrected though. I'm an armchair analyst as much as anyone and piecing it together, and I will admit I've not been following as closely since my friends moved out of Lviv over the border to (relative) safety.

On the no fly zone issue, I caught a bit of an interview with some professor of military history a couple of days ago & he was discussing the potential of the UN to vote through a no fly zone which he thought would be a more viable option than one imposed by NATO. Haven't heard much on this but part of me thinks putin cares not a fuck if it's Russia v NATO or Russia v rest of the world...

New Ezra Kleine is really interesting. But as a heads up the end is super depressing.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7MiRskjwAtOGKFtmUna9xS?si=N5_W5ve7S6uyKZTd0cTSyQ&utm_source=copy-link

I might be wrong, but as I understand it no fly zone means NATO forces engaging in combat with Russian Forces, which means WW3. I believe that NATO have said as much?

That's my understanding. It would involve NATO jets taking on Russian planes and trying to destroy Russian air defence batteries. Basically, bombing ground troops with radar-seeking missiles. It would be a massive escalation.

Inside Putin’s circle — the real Russian elite
As the west focuses on oligarchs, a far smaller group has its grip on true power in Moscow. Who are the siloviki — and what motivates them?
https://www.ft.com/content/503fb110-f91e-4bed-b6dc-0d09582dd007

Paywalled

Paywalled

Yes. Annoying, but here is a workaround: copy link, Google.co.uk, search for FT URL, hit first link.

or search for "Inside Putin’s circle — the real Russian elite"

Or pay.

steady

or put it the internet archive

or use 12ft.io

2022 and people still get stuck by paywalls

I found this 15 minute letter from Ukraine really showed the human impact on everyday life for the ordinary person
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0015h6b

Casually stealing a nuclear powerplant and the Friday all hands
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1502414180208492547

In the link I posted Masha Glessen, notes how isolated Putin has become over covid. Effectively stewing alone in his own thoughts for 2yrs.

And yet people still keep asking for the no fly zone or military intervention.

I'm for military intervention. It wouldn't be the first time NATO intervenes in a war where no NATO countries were involved initially. I'm talking about Yugoslavia and Kosovo war in 1998.

Sadly it literally took a genocide for NATO to intervene.

NATO's intervention was prompted by Yugoslavia's bloodshed and ethnic
cleansing of Albanians, which drove the Albanians into neighbouring
countries and had the potential to destabilize the region.

So yeah, i'm for military intervention as well - how can we act as a free world if the strongest military alliance in the world closes its eyes for all the atrocities the Russians commit in Ukraine.

Or will it take more bloodshed and more dead kids to finally intervene?
Maybe another ethnic cleansing like the soviets did with tatars of Crimea?

The counter argument to a no fly zone
https://twitter.com/defencewithac/status/1502420836376092678