Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

There must be a limit to the percentage of a given population that can be infected at a single point in time - maybe derived from the r number? Does anyone know what that would be for Omicron?

In theory, yes. But apparently the fact that Omicron reinfects (people who have already had Covid) so many people and that it appears that vaccine effectiveness and natural immunity wanes quite strongly, makes it incredibly hard to estimate for this variant.

Edit: The only thing I think we know, is that Omicron can infect more people than Delta could, by way of its increased ability to reinfect people.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/23/hospital-admission-risk-up-to-70-less-with-omicron-than-delta-ukhsa-finds?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

So that's good. Not so good is immunity against infection wanes quickly.

Nothing about long COVID risk from omicron, will that also be reduced? I guess they don't know yet.

Mate of mine still has problems with breathing / dizzy spells.

As an athlete (ha) this is my biggest fear. I think a lot of people overlook it.

Omicron is such a dick

I haven’t ridden a bike (or been able to do any strenuous exercise) since January.

Sorry to hear this dude...

That's terrifying. I hope you're recovered soon.

Sorry to hear that.
I was similar for about 3m after getting Covid in Jan this year.
Covid and post covid pneumonia ravaged my lungs. Also I think it made my very occasional SVTs more regular.

Oh gawd. I feel for you both. I’ll be gutted if I can’t beat my brother up hills after this.

Hopefully for the people who have been vaxxed, you won’t get the full blown horror that was 7-8 days of fever over 39.5 for both myself and my wife at the same time, with a 5 year old and 10 month old both with covid also, all locked down.

I think the pneumonia was what got me the worst, having to take a 30 second rest every 3 steps in our 3 storey townhouse got really distressing.

Yeah thats the nightmare, sorry to hear it. Shit

Ok yeah, that might be worse than losing to cjr.

That really sounds awful man, I hope you’re over the worst of it and it all comes back given enough time.

What are people's opinions on this:

My son went to Spain a few days ago and tested negative on lateral flow before coming back to the UK but then had a positive returned from his 2 day PCR. He then did another (NHS this time) because he didn't believe it and that has just come back negative.

My wife is now pushing for us all to go to her parents for Christmas dinner, I think we shouldn't.

NHS PCR you mean?

what does his LFD show today?

If at all possible avoid any gatherings.
Some unvaxxed carrier can just show up unannounced and you’re screwed.

@edscoble - Yes, Randox was positive, NHS negative (PCR)
@leggy_blonde - Lateral flows have always showed negative

@davidual - I agree, my wife's family are hell bent on getting everyone together though! My concern is which test do you know believe? There will be 14 people in a small house tomorrow for Christmas dinner, one is potentially positive. It is one bloody day for fuck's sake.

I’ll be honest, 14 peoples is a staggering amount at the theshold of the pandemic, vaccinated or not.

LFT may tell you if you’re infectious, PCR tell you if you have it in your system.

Edit as eskay made a point below.

Lateral flow may tell you.

And I agree.

Specificity and sensitivity are key.

If the PCR is 90% sensitive, it is missing 10% of covid infections.

If you find the false positive rate for the randox test, you can work out the likelihood of a true negative infection given both tests, and by proxy, the risk of infecting other people in a family gathering.

Aw, hope you will be OK.

My exes missus got it, but he didn't. Finger crossed you escape it and your partner doesn't get it too bad.

So 3 of the 4 of us are negative.
My wife has a mild cough and is roughly on 5 or 6 since infection.
We are double vaccinated and I had my booster the day before she tested positive.
Second time for her. She’s been more ill at other points in the year with non-Covid.

Yeah, here in France allegedly but seem to be appointent as they run out of vaccine.

The positive PCR over rules the negative.