Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Does it tho?

Does it tho?

Its perfectly possible for more people to have mild illness and more people to have severe illness, if the transmission rate is high enough.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuOzZ7dnPNU

Yeah, if half as many people need to go to hospital but you end up with 4 times as many people getting it then you've got twice as many people in hospital.

Its good news for sure, in terms of observed severity but there's about 5% more beds occupied in the NHS right now compared to this time last year, staff absence is at a high because everybody has Covid, cases are still rising very fast and everybody is about to spend the weekend with Granny.

Fingers crossed that next week, admissions data starts to look VERY positive.

^ Don't agree with that statement.

Doesn't make any sense imo.

Not as severe.

Is not as severe.

No matter how many times u get it imo.

This is a good thread from last year that explains it. @snottyotter is on the money with his explanation though

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1343567425107881986

Simplified but essentially the right idea. On a personal level less severe is great, as you're whatever as much less likely to get seriously ill, but as a population it's only good if pretty much the same amount or less people get it.

Three months later I have managed what I'd call a negative LFT but there is still a very very very faint line if you stare at it.

It's possibly irrelevant in your case but, circling back on our prior discussion on potential LFT 'false positives', I had never really considered the particular manufacturer might be a factor in my own experiences as I'd only used the 'NHS' tests (Innova I think) at that point and was assuming everyone else was using the same.

However, a couple of weeks ago, I got my first box of Flowflex LFTs and tested blatantly positive (as opposed the the faint lines I'd regularly had on the NHS ones) on all of them. I just assumed I'd finally caught it, despite no symptoms, and was surprised when the subsequent PCR came back negative. I tried again over the following days and the same thing happened each time, with another PCR coming back negative again.

At this point I got hold of some 'Orient Gene' LFTs and they have all been negative - yet the Flowflex ones were still showing positive nearly two weeks later. On the other hand, my wife has always tested negative with both types - and I had friends who definitely did have Covid who tested negative on Flowflex throughout. My own experience seems to be consistently repeatable though..

I don't like to disappear down Twitter rabbit holes but there seems to be quite a lot of discussion about this, specifically relating to Flowflex, including amongst healthcare professionals, at the moment.

Thankfully I'm borderline isolating anyway, but this is likely to start getting tricky for me if Flowflex becomes the only available brand..

Looking at South Africa, I am leaning towards a more favourable outcome.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/safrican-province-epicentre-omicron-outbreak-passes-peak-infections-scientists-2021-12-22/

Peak of hospitalisations and deaths seems well below prior waves, and they have only introduced light restrictions. I know they have a younger population, but they had a younger population in prior waves as well.

Good news, but this is winter times where we also get seasonal viruses on top of this.

Hospital shouldn’t be at the theshold of being overwhelmed.

Peak of hospitalisations and deaths seems well below prior waves

~2% of recorded Omicron cases are leading to admissions in SA, and excess deaths are way up. Don't forget that South Africans don't have the same level of access to healthcare that we enjoy and their data is not as complete.

Even if we saw 1% of yesterday's 106k, thats still 1,000 extra admissions per day and there might be a few more doublings yet to come.

I share your optimism, but a lot of epidemiologists think that it might be a mistake to draw too many conclusions from South Africa at this stage.

Fuck yeah. Managed to keep wife and I, + 2 uni students and 1 school kid all clear so we can go away tomorrow. Worse than waiting for exam results. Can't quite believe we're all clear. Big relief.
(apols to those who haven't had such luck)

Magic??

Some people are quoting that graph as if every infection follows that graph perfectly. Each infection is unique.

An infection may last a very short period if the body's defences act on it quickly (you're immune system can only deal with the virus when it is in your body, immunity isn't some magic forcefield that prevents you being infected). An infection may also last a lot longer than the graph suggests, even asymptomatically.

That's all.

There's a sense of a reverse ferret going on with Sage due to the Spectator digging into how the cabinet meetings work with the reports provided and how they are interpreted. The JP Morgan client note seems to have had a real impact on the cabinet at the start of this week.

I’ve not seen anyone do that, as it’s quite obviously not the case.
In the context of changing of the rules with regards to isolation, referring to that graph seems sensible. If there is a better one feel free to share it….?

Partner tested positive today. Yesterday, I tested negative and opened our Crisis shelter, welcoming in the first 150-odd guests. We had about 40% dropout rate in our volunteers (COVID among the causes), and just about made things work by the skin of our teeth.

So I’m having to stay home to do childcare, and leave the shelter short of experienced management and also hope I don’t have brewing Cov that I’ve spread to a bunch of vulnerable people (tho I’ve tested negative today).

Fuck this shit.

Eugh, that sucks. Sorry to hear that.

Hope your partner gets through it without feeling too bad, and that you manage to avoid it.

It’s so bloody stressful trying to juggle work and home life with covid testing at this time of year, I almost wish that we had locked down (not really), at least there would have been certainty. I had (what I thought was) a +ve LFT a week ago. Very faint line, you could barely even see it unless you squinted at it under a light, but I did what I thought was the right thing - phoned in sick to work, went for a PCR, and camped out in the attic away from my family. The PCR came back -ve, and I felt like a twat for inconveniencing everyone.

The PCR came back -ve, and I felt like a twat for inconveniencing everyone.

Better than inconveniencing everyone by giving them Covid I guess. But yeah, we had a similar issue just before a funeral. Turned out to be fine, but it was stressful.

My Mum's had exactly the same happen since Monday of this week.
She's in a care home.
Their procedure is to keep her isolated and to repeat the PCR.

Most of my friends in UK, one of the couple is positive. Mad times.

Happened with me. My girlfriend is resolutely testing negative and I am now coming out the other side so hopefully she stays that way!

Happened to me last week as well, certainly not guaranteed to get it if your partner/ family has it.

Had our first positive at the office (we had a few cases during the lockdown but not since) Had to call around to notify people who were at the office including those with vulnerable family members they were expecting to come in.

119,789 cases today. The SPI-M chairs posted a statement earlier indicating that they suspect that the testing system and/or testing data system, might be struggling to keep up.

Latest ONS says 1 in 20 Londoners (in their random sample) tested positive for Covid in the week up to 16th. Crazy!