Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Fair enough, however you'd expect Spiegelhalter not to find it remarkable though.

Isn't it something like 30 blood clots out of 5 million doses?

30-something out of 17 million, I read. And of course correlation is not causation.

does it not just mean that people got ill while on the trial? ie. unrelated to the placebo

Nope. Just as taking a placebo - something you think will make you better but has no actual effect - may well make you feel better due to the placebo effect, if you take something which will have no physiological effect but which you believe may cause side effects, you may well experience side effects. Physiological belief can have physical effects - the placebo effect works both ways. It's known as the nocebo effect.

(30 a week compared to expected 100 a week in 5 million) to a bit worse than normal (still 30 but now expected 20)

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Probability+x+%3E+29+where+x+%7E+BinomialDistribution%5B1000000%2C+0.00002%5D

To my surprise, that is statistically significant

that's a good point which I hadn't considered. And I guess there can be real physical side effects too like a sore arm.

The risk of a Covid infection is also statistically significant

"France’s decision to suspend temporarily the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine was taken in co-ordination with other European countries, French industry minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher told France Info radio on Tuesday." (From guardian news ticker)

I'd like to know a bit more about this. Isn't the EMA the EU body which would facilitate this? They've said keep using it. Why are there coordinated moves to suspend the vaccine at the international level?

If 30 VS 20 blood clots is statistically significant, I guess my question would also be: "How BAD are those clots"

Are they ones you can keep an eye on and quickly go to A&E if symptom xyz develops, get blood thinners, you will be ok?
Or the ones that can give you a horrible stroke/embolism?

As at the moment mostly older people get the vaccine and aged is linked to all sorts of health issues, it is maybe also possible younger vaccinated don't see the effect?

Huel makes me burpy so not for me but it's a powdered vegan protein rich meal shake maybe a quick food fix?

That’s actually a pretty good shout. I hadn’t considered boosting things up with supplements like protein shakes.

I thought it was 37 occurrences in 17millions vaccines:

“ AstraZeneca said 17 million people had so far received the jab and the 15 incidences of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and 22 events of pulmonary embolism recorded were “much lower than would be expected to occur naturally in a general population” and “similar across other licensed Covid-19 vaccines”.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/15/germany-suspends-oxford-vaccine-over-blood-clot-fears

Also says there that phizer has had 30 instances, so seems to be an issue no matter what vaccine.

Are we just living in a UK media bubble? What are European news agencies saying to the public?

They also said that they would expect 1,500 instances of clots just by chance alone so to me, currently, it seems like an over reaction and likely a political one. Fully happy to be proven wrong, however. But if I am right, it's shit as it just fuels the anti-vax rhetoric. My sister in law is already in a panic sharing instagram "news" articles about it asking how she can make sure she only gets the Pfizer one (a healthy 29 year old).

I thought it was 37 occurrences in 17millions vaccines

That's the total number of AstraZeneca vaccinations. There is some suggestion it might just be a bad batch of 1 million vaccines.

it seems like an over reaction and likely a political one

Given that the EMA and the WHO have both said there's no reason to suspend AZ use, it does seem that way. It's getting increasingly difficult to see this other than as a post-Brexit anti-Britain backlash, particularly given previous ill-advised statements on the AZ vaccine from senior European politicians.

Some of what they are picking up is pretty bad, and it’s probably more helpful to look at it as clotting abnormalities rather than just blood clots. They are reporting various different blood clots (including a cluster of cases with venous sinus thrombosis which is a blood clot in the veins draining the brain - very serious of left untreated), along with thrombocytopaenia (not enough platelets, which usually causes you to bleed more) and disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) which is where your body’s clotting cascades go completely haywire and you simultaneously clot a lot and also bleed a lot. That last one usually only occurs when someone is critically unwell (eg often found when a patient is on ITU) so it is concerning if this is happening out of the blue in previously young and well patients. However it seems we don’t yet have enough information about causation, the background of the patients who these possible complications occurred in, and whether there is an actual statistically significant difference to draw firm conclusions about whether these potential risks outweigh the benefits of having a vaccinated population.

If 30 VS 20 blood clots is statistically significant, I guess my question would also be: "How BAD are those clots"

Ostensibly not as bad as the covid complications that are expected to arise in those people that are susceptible to clots should they develop covid.

Medical stats are bonkers complex though.

There are more anti vaxxers in some mainland EU countries, I think in this case it's mostly (can't rule it out 100%) nothing to do with a backlash.

Rep of Ireland is also suspending it ATM.

Some countries also choose to be extra careful to try to counter the anti vaxxers (look! we are doing extra checks) but not sure that is actually helpful...it may make people more scared?

Tx! :)

An acquaintance of a mate if mine said her parents got really ill after vaccination, both in their 80s

But she said they had no idea where to report neither had hospital staff, I thought if true that's a serious training oversight.

One year on since bangface

Someone needs to do a long form piece of investigative journalism on how Bangface and not the Cheltenham Festival was actually the epicentre of the UK coronavirus pandemic.

Ideally on Vice.

Aren't the clots all associated with a single batch?

No, there's absolutely zero evidence of that AFAIK and I'd be very surprised if C4 reported that.

Don't forget a lot of people in their 80s get really ill for all sorts of reasons that have nothing to do with vaccinations.

How to Vaccinate the World is worth a listen, annoyingly I can't remember which episode dealt with the number of people you would expect to die shortly after receiving the vaccine. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000py6s/episodes/downloads

Totally but can also understand the daughter is well freaked out now.

It's all statistics until you become the statistic then it feels totally different.

My exes missus was delighted her 70ish year old dad got his first jab as he already was unhealthy. He had no side effects luckily.

Not sure that's the case; or not entirely anyway. The first countries to suspend AstraZeneca were Norway, Denmark and Iceland. The latest two are Sweden and Latvia. None of those countries have shown themselves to be anti-Britain, even post-brexit

They 100% reported it as I heard them say it, European press seems to refer the batch in question:
https://pharmaphorum.com/news/eu-regulators-probe-safety-of-az-vaccine-batch/

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/France-issues-statement-on-AstraZeneca-and-batch-ABV5300

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2021-03-12/some-spanish-regions-halt-injections-of-astrazeneca-batch-under-eu-investigation.html

Not sure that's the case

I honestly can't imagine it being the case either (that it's politically motivated). Just too bizarre. However, I'm still sketched out that a French Industry minister has said the move was co-ordinated between nations, and that AstraZeneca is “on a hot seat and knows it.”

We'll see what happens in France after the EMA announcement just now which reiterated its position that it should continue to be used.