General Election 2019

thanks dad

Interesting points, hopefully they'll compound to something tangible tomorrow!

I agree. I think there will be small elements that will make it closer than perhaps the polls suggest, but not that big a swing. Hopeful to get a hung parliament but expecting a circa 10 seat tory majority.

Rain always affects the labour vote more than the Tory vote was the anecdata I just heard

Sunshine socialism

Mrs GB was talking to a Labour activist yesterday on the train, he was going to our constituency (Putney) to do some canvassing. They had 700 people out on the streets yesterday and they claim they've knocked on every door at least once.

Latest YouGov poll has it going marginally to Labour too.

Putney
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/08/remain-disunity-seal-brexit-putney-labour-lib-dems

Oh you live in Putney too :)

Yeah there were some Labour people out and about two weeks ago already, saw them in our building. And LibDem have been pelting my girlfriend and the 3rd person in our household (i.e. the people actually eligible to vote) with material, clearly this is a hotly contested area.

4 days old that news. That's a very long time in politics.

Data 2 days old: https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/ has Putney as "Lean Labour"

It seems Labour have made a huge effort locally to persuade LD voters in Putney to vote Labour to avoid splitting the anti-Tory vote.

Most of the LibDem stuff in the post is just general stuff about the party, since it doesn't have (the candidate) Sue Wixley's name on it it isn't part of their General Election budget.

Lib Dems have literally no chance in Putney. All they are doing is taking votes off labour and giving the Tories the chance to reatin the seat.

Labour canvassing game is strong - that can make a big difference. What I am hearing from well connected sources is they feel the Tories can be stopped and it is on a knife edge.

I hope you are right...

Dear Hugo7

Thank you for contacting us.

As the BBC’s Political Editor, a significant part of Laura Kuenssberg’s role is to keep our audience up to date with political events and stories as they happen. A key tool for doing this is social media, which allows her to report on breaking stories quickly. As is common journalistic practice, Laura often gains information from off the record sources, as was the case in this instance.

Once the video footage of this incident was available, Laura shared it on her Twitter so that people could see for themselves what had actually happened. She also reflected the Labour Party’s response to this story. Once it became apparent that the information she had been briefed was inaccurate, Laura deleted the initial tweet, clarified what had happened and apologised, as you can see below:
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1204110491242643457

Thank you again for contacting us.

BBC Complaints Team

Dear Hugo7

Please go fuck yourself.

Thank you again for contacting us.

BBC Complaints Team

... more or less, right?

https://evolvepolitics.com/bbcs-laura-kuenssberg-accused-of-breaking-electoral-law-after-revealing-confidential-postal-vote-information/

A key tool for doing this is social media

Ah right, so the new landscape of (dis)information justifies a completely new level of diligence of behalf of one of the best paid and highest profile journalists in the country? "I read it on the internet..."

My constituency (Ealing) is solid Labour. I'm wondering if that's why I've hardly any noticed any canvassing/ material (from any party). All parties now just focus resources on marginals.

Whatever one thinks of Laura Kuenssberg, quite generally journalists should not become the story. I realise that senior BBC journalists often enjoy a high profile, but I think she has failed that test.

Not voting because it's raining is probably worse than hitler telling you you've got incurable anus cancer

Oh dear. That really seems to be a major journalistic blunder.

My constituency (Chipping Barnet) is marginal Tory (~300 votes). We have had massive amounts of campaigning from all parties. Labour would probably have won it if it wasn't for the antisemitism. Add in the Lib Dem splitting the votes and I suspect Ms Villers will be on the front bench of a Johnson government on Friday morning.

How do I place a bet on that so I can at least have some beer money to numb the pain of the next 5* years?

Ealing (And Central Acton - my constituency also) was a Tory seat and then a swing seat in 2015 - Rupa won it by a couple of hundred votes then I think. There was a big Lib Dem vote for Clegg there as well at one point.

It's Labour now, but the Lib Dems tried to have it as one of their 'stretch' targets early on in this election. I like Rupa and don't get the feeling that the Tories will win or the Lib Dems have managed to split the anti tory vote, but I still worry about those Tories votes around the place.

My polling of the four people I know in Putney suggests one Tory, one labour, one lib dem and one tory / lib dem on the fence. It's all to play for.

Laura K excelling herself today by illegally announcing that the postal vote results look grim for Labour. The postal vote is confidential. No one is allowed to sample. Everyone involved is sworn to absolute secrecy. That Raab and Keunsberg are announcing a win for the Tories on the PV before the actual vote is a gross irregularity.

Fact is that in just about every election in the past 10 or more years, the Tories have managed to get more of their supporters to register for PVs than any other party. They always do better on the PV and so if they have done so now is to be expected. The PV accounts for around 10% or less of total.

Another reason to GOTV for tomorrow.

Up to 20% of votes may already have been cast by post so late swings to Labour might be too late for some.