General Election 2019

trend in polling points to a hung parliament as base case. that's only looking at the yougov MRP which has lots of dubious assumptions. correct for those assumptions and picture looks a lot rosier.

then throw in massive tactical voting + electoral map a lot better in 2019 than it was in 2017 + a lot bigger/more offensive ground game + a more canny and well-resourced momentum + HQ not actively working against the campaign this time + tories' electoral map has some severe structural weaknesses. I was optimistic at the beginning of the campaign; I'm even more optimistic now. as mike pence said on the eve of poll (during 2016 US election): "this doesn't feel like second place."

happy for you to take receipts and throw them in my face as we descend into the hard brexit hellscape at 10pm tomorrow, if you like

Rain, though.

mate... it's britain

I've been doing it for the last 7 years for a fucking takeaway.

Fingers crossed. I'm optimistic as well from all the data points and anecdotes I'm encountering.

My worry is the late and intensive digital ad spend that the Tories are pumping out. Cummings replicating the approach from the referendum.

No need to apologise, just an observation.

This isn't helpful either
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-labour-party-jeremy-corbyn-vote-mps-a9241411.html%3famp

we're going to win

Sure - as long as by 'win' you mean come second by a small enough margin.

Yeah. We went out to a gig the other night in SE London instead of the usual North of the River venues - saved almost £30 in babysitting just by not having to do the long ass to/from the venue.

Whats a good night for Labour? Overall majority seems unikely, surely?

I'm hoping for something better !

It’s the hope that kills you

Anything close to 2017 no of seats is about as good as it's going to get IMO. Whether that is seen as good I don't know. Not sure Corbyn can really spin losing 2 elections as a winning.

If it's a hung parliament who knows what will happen. CON/LD on condition of 2nd ref? LAB/LIB/SNP supply and demand?

I'd say being able to form a coalition would be a good night. Being able to form one without the lib dems (thus strengthening Corbyn's position) would be a really good night.

I'm optimistic as well from all the data points and anecdotes I'm encountering.

Not trying to be a dick, but which data points? All I see looks like a small, but still sizeable enough Tory majority. And anecdotes are not worth much in a situation like this unfortunately, there is never any guarantee that they'll be in any way representative.

I'll gladly let myself be surprised of course, but currently I'm not seeing much pointing in that direction.

If Labour and Conservatives both are unable to form a government, and the smaller parties are unwilling to join in a formal coalition, who can propose a policy for the whole Parliament to vote on? The largest party only, or would the second largest also be able to put forward votes, if the speaker agrees?

have you been following the red centrist telephone's analyses of the polls and their underlying data?

I have not. Is there reason to believe that person specifically knows something more though? I mean I've seen a lot of analysis of polls and a lot of back and forth about different polling methods etc., but nothing that would have made me think the poll average is significantly wrong.

They make a few good points that the Labour vote may be underestimated in polls due to the weighting of the turnout of labour voters.

I suspect it's a bit too far the other way but they may have a point. I always find the "everybody else has got it wrong apart from me" type of things a bit difficult though.

I agree with villa-ru on this one, a good result for Labour is to keep their current number of seats, or only to lose a few.

A few things:

1). Polls are giving a clear lead to Conservatives, but they are also showing a late and significant swing to Labour.
2). There are good reasons to think the polls are overstating the Tory lead due to weightings and methodologies, none to think vice versa. Pre vote polls have a pretty poor recent record.
3). Two core Labour messages (you can't trust the Tories with NHS and Boris is a liar who is not fit for office) have gained traction in the media and dominated final days of the campaign.
4). Labour canvassing game is strong - that can make a big difference. What I am hearing from well connected sources is they feel the Tories can be stopped and it is on a knife edge.
5). This is nothing but a personal sense, but my gut is that long-established Labour voters in 'Red Wall' seats won't be able to bring themselves to vote for the Tories on the day, and will stay home.

and will stay home.

Pray for rain?

I hope rain will be enough of an excuse for people who want Brexit but have no love for Boris to stay at home.

Yeah these things are always possible of course, but I'd be sceptical that this makes for a truly significant difference. Just my opinion! But then I also tend to be a pessimist anyway.

That's five, not two.