US Politics

One small win in this otherwise terrifying ordeal: it appears Oregon is the first place in the world to legalise psilocybin therapy.

Sarf Efrika

well that makes perfect sense.

All-nighter update: Made it to about 4am this morning before the minutiae of county-level voting data became too much. Woke up to Farage shouting about bleach.

This is Trump's isn't it?

Biden is behind in most of the states still to declare from this graphic linked below - for example he's behind 3% in wisconsin with 94% of their vote counted.

I don't really understand the late counting of postal votes that we've been hearing about - does that mean that those last 6% are all postal votes left to be counted till the end (and possibly / possibly not more likely to favour Biden)?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat

Had a tab open cycing randomly through youtube in the background I forgot about from last night. Just watching this:

She had gone from tabulator to tabulator and then headed out. pic.twitter.com/XIjVSFe7NP

— Alison Dirr (@AlisonDirr) November 4, 2020

and this played at 2:11 in the background at the same moment as she went out of sight into the elevator. Hallucinating a bit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIvzKJTqrbg

Interesting read on how ISP, website owners, etc. use nudging techniques to influence our behaviour, and by extension our opinions. https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-10/uoia-cdo102920.php

I wonder what secret machinations @velocio does around here 🤔

isn't that we we all have new gravel bikes?

It depends state by state how and when absentee/postal votes get counted; in PA there's 5.2m votes counted and 1m not even started postal votes to be counted and yes, Democratic votes should dominate as Republicans encouraged on the day voting to engineer this situation.

Same kinda person that would tell anyone willing to hear it that the country has gone to hell when they're living abroad. The good old "shit like that didn't happen during apartheid" excuse has been heard too many times.

After Kenosha trump about 93k down in Wisconsin. The missing absentee ballots are from the major urban areas and expected to be heavily blue ~ 170k ballots to be counted I believe. Hence no projection.

You should have led with that, never met a nice one.

I don't really understand the late counting of postal votes that we've been hearing about - does that mean that those last 6% are all postal votes left to be counted till the end (and possibly / possibly not more likely to favour Biden)?

Yes. In some states they pre-count the postal ballots (eg Ohio), so Biden led early there, but Trump overtook him from the later counts of in-person voting. In others (eg Pennsylvania), it works the other way round - they count in-person first (Trump lead) and then start on the postal votes which are likely to favour Biden. As the majority of postal votes are from people affiliated to a party, they have a good idea of the weighting towards each candidate.

I wonder what secret machinations @velocio does around here 🤔

None at all.

This site is designed to be engaging by being the antithesis of all those dark patterns. It is what it is and there isn't an incentive for me to create any dark patterns as the financial basis for the site is donations... and it lives and dies by how valuable you feel it is.

That and the fact that I've made no changes in 6 years.

This is Trump's isn't it?

More than likely, yes.

Georgia and North Carolina are the closest two left and therefore they'll determine the winner.

That Grauniad link currently has it Biden 238 - 213 Trump with Biden taking Maine and Arizona.

If Biden does take Nevada and Wisconsin that's only another 16 electoral college votes giving him 254 (he needs 270).

That means he'd need Georgia (16) which is slipping away, 2% behind with 94% counted.
NC is only 15. Biden is 1.4% behind with 94% counted.
In PA (20) there's very little chance. 12% behind but only 64% counted.
MI is 16 but he's 5% behind with 81% counted.

Still baffled that a country that prides itself on 'freedom' also has a voting system that can be actively manipulated to stop people having their vote counted.

Decision Desk now reporting Biden lead in Wisconsin with Green Bay still to report.

Oh fuck

I hear comments like this constantly from (some) expat saffas over here in NZ. It's terrifying.

Yes - that was how I read it as well - he doesn't seem to have the numbers. It seems to conflict somewhat with the Graun's tone that Biden is doing ok (I guess their approach is predictable / understandable mind you).

I don't know what I'm looking at though, so hopefully I'm wrong.

Suggest you do a bit more reading into how US elections work, with particular regards to gerrymandering, eligibility and manipulation. Use Republicans as a case study, as it’s pretty much universally them.

Some states postal votes were weighted >70% Dem; the impact on PA result could be massive

in this case read 'freedom' as freedom to have existing power structures unchallenged in perpetuity

Considering we've spent weeks talking about mail-in ballots affecting the state swings dramatically, it seems everyone has forgotten this on election day.

There's a reason Trump wants counting to stop; we're expecting a heavy Democrat vote in those uncounted ballots; some in the region of 10:1 in favour of Biden.

I think it will be incredibly close but I think Biden might sneak it.

Horrible that Trump has increased his actual vote count over 2016 though. America is truly fucked.

Go back to VA bring called for Biden on a 32% count when he was 20% down. Their models were right, based on the areas and types of vote which had been counted.

Admittedly, my views are clouded by alcohol, sleep deprivation and desperation.