EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

I know it's not scientific but I hate Jo Swinson's face.

Inexplicably hard to look at without grimacing, and it's not for aesthetic ideals of womanhood either, it's more some kind of character trait emanating out from the gapped teeth, beady, screwed up eyes and culminating in that oh-so Milngavie accent that speaks of a certain caste of Scot.

It's like she's the distillation of every goody goody but viciously competitive head girl at school that's ever existed.

.

Someone's got a bit of a crush.

Idiot Tory MP Daniel Kawczynski

One of the worst cunts in a crowded market.

You'd need to know the rep of Milngavie as a place in Scotland. Even the pronunciation of the name has it's own status that serves as a kind of class differentiation. My brother in law is also from there, so it's definitely tainted, but yeah. goody goody, dob you in, holier than thou, self righteous hypocrisy is the kind of behaviour I'd associate with the place.

Jo personifies this extremely well.

As ever, Billy Connolly nails it. (also just a fucking funny monologue that demonstrates that folk from glasgow generally are quite cracked, myself included...)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=da1PodDYfL8

Shame that, as he got richer and older, he went on to do routines about how his new aristo/royal friends are just the salt of the earth and it's all those middle class people who are the problem. His whole tobogganist routine is just dreary worship of the upper classes.

haha. yeah, I know a guy that went out wi his daughter. Suppose it's inevitable when you've had decades of unquestioning arselickery from your fans and more money than you can ever spend.

Still, his early stuff is just phenomenal and I have a lot of love for him-i put his recent class revisionism stuff down to the alzheimers.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1169577165681254402?s=19

watching Sky News live - Lucy Harris Brexit Party MEP arguing with Femi Oluwole

She's fucking batshit.....

It took more than a few reads of this line to work out what the lords are doing, too many double negatives.

Drops opposition to legislation against no...

so that’s not unagainst No Dealn’t?

Crystal

I too would like to condemn the vindictive treatment of dropped opposition to no-deal.

the first victim of fascism is the proper use of language...

These last few days have been rather exciting even for a passive remainer like myself.
There are still some things I don't quite get (being a forrins).
First of all, why wouldn't Labour jump at the chance of an early election? Even one set for BEFORE Halloween?
The latest seems to indicate that they have raised another excuse for not going for it.
And might consider instead a November date etc.
Wtf? For 2 years JC has been saying to TM "you gave no mandate, give us a GE ".
Now Bojo is offering it, JC is saying "not good enough ".

Second rhetorical question. Will the ERG manage to get some sense onto Bojo's head?
Or will they leave the sinking ship that is this government one after the other?

Last. More a Crystal ball Moment. Is the next GE going to see both Labour and the Conservatives lose out to Farage and Lib Dems? Isn't Bojo ringing (involuntarily) the death knell for the Tories?

Labour, and others do not trust Johnson, so fear they’d agree to an election only for him to move the date to after Oct 31st to allow the UK to crash out of the EU with no deal.

By delaying an election they put Johnson under huge pressure as he’ll have to request an extension to the EU if the Benn bill is passed.

The ERG and sense are unhappy bedfellows, despite the name they are the group most keen on No Deal. Think of them as the Brexit Party wing of the Conservative party.

On a General Election- no-one knows how it will play out. The situation is very volatile. I assume the Tories think they can muster enough leave voters to form a majority, although I find that hard to believe, even with our winner takes all electoral system.

so fear they’d agree to an election only for him to move the date to after Oct 31st to allow the UK to crash out of the EU with no deal.

Which he can do without anyone agreeing to it.

Once an election is called, parliament is dissolved and the rules allow the PM to change the date of the election. He could then move it to a time when parliament would not be reconvened before Brexit day, ensuring a default position of no deal.

Basically, he has cried wolf too many times and now no one believes a single spittle-flecked syllable that he utters.

As my tiny brain understands it (so I could be wrong):-

If the Tories really wanted an election right now they could get one by introducing a one line bill of the form "Notwithstanding the FTPA there will be a general election on 15th October." This would be easier for them to get through Parliament as it would only require a simple majority in the house, not 2/3 of MPs to vote for it if it was done via the FTPA. The FTPA does not prevent this from happening. More importantly, the SNP would be really up for an election as they'd wipe the floor with the Tories in Scotland, so getting that simple majority should be quite simple for the Tories despite being in a minority (even propped up by 10 DUP).

However, they wouldn't be able to move that election to after October 31st themselves, as that would require another bill which everyone other than the Tories would block.

AIUI, there's nothing stopping Labour seizing control of the order of business (as they did earlier this week) and introducing a bill to do exactly the same thing.

The difference with an election called via the FTPA (which requires getting 2/3 of MPs to agree) is that there is no law passed, so the date is at the whim of the ruling party (i.e. with the PM). So BJ could bait-and-switch by suggesting October 15th, getting the OK, then moving it past October 31st.

I'm not sure if there is anything formal that can be done to force the election to be on a specific date and, more importantly, only movable by 2/3 agreement via the FTPA.

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As for the GE itself. Who knows.

Labour are worried that the Tories and the Brexit party will agree not to compete in specific constituencies which would increase the chance that the Tories would be returned with a majority and then BJ can do what he likes (including repealing the bill which prevents No-Deal) and then leading the way to crashing out on the 31st.

Tories are worried that the Brexit Party won't play ball, or Labour and LD/PC/etc agree not to compete in order to oust the Tories from many seats and return a straight Labour or coalition Government.

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As a remainer I'm still clinging to the hope that it Brexit gets cancelled somehow, ideally with another vote that returns a 'Remain' majority, possibly with a promise of another referendum in 2-5 years (to kick that can down the road a fair amount).

Again, who knows.

This thread has had better memes than the meme thread recently. This was my favourite today

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What I'm worried about is BoJo just not asking for the extension. He would be in contempt of Parliament but as we saw with TM that has absolutely no consequences. I feel like they should have attached a "...if the PM does not comply, he will be sent to prison for a year" or something to it.

I wanted to understand the facts behind the Raab/BJ claims that delaying Brexit will cost the UK £1 billion a month (as I suspect we're going to hear it quite a lot over the coming weeks).

https://fullfact.org/europe/brexit-extension-1-billion/

So as I suspected its spin and not entirely as clear cut as their (unchallenged) claims would have you believe. Firstly we'd get about 1/4 back in EU subsidies and secondly if they got what they claimed they're using the no deal threat to get (a deal) then we'd still have to pay the same amount anyway as part of the divorce arrangement. Feels a lot like a Cummings ploy that if repeated often enough it will get them the election result they want (£350m a week anyone?)

Also call me a cynic but did anyone else notice that the deluge of (angry looking) immigrant news stories at the time of the referendum and then again at the 2017 GE suddenly ceased to exist as soon as the votes were cast? And look at what appeared on the news feed on my phone this evening... Any coincidence with a GE clearly looming?

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🤣

So cruel (for 'blue on blue').

When even the supposedly friendly papers start mocking on their Front Page, could it be a sign of the beginning of the end for Bojo?

Scottish sun