EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Jesus wept. I’m not defending No Deal. I’m illustrating why we got here and suggesting how it might have been avoided. How did you not grasp this?

Not sure what Johnson is trying to achieve here.

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Shut up you illiterate bastard! Where did you learn to read? Brussels!?

You lost.getoveritm8

He's giving Macron a whiff of honest English cheese production

Dominic Cummings, yesterday. On the right, miro_o. On the left, BleakRefs. Or, on the right, BleakRefs. On the left, miro_o.

If I understand your point it is that Corbyns Labour should have voted through the withdrawal bill, supporting May in order to overcome the DUP and the ERG, as this presents the least worst exit that could be achieved.

That this would be required for May to get the WA through was dictated by Nick Timothy once he’d convinced May to call the snap election and announce her red lines at the Lancaster House speech.

Do you think (even whipped) that Labour MP’s would have done as instructed?

Would Change UK have formed earlier, and taken many more Labour MP’s perhaps?

What remain have lacked is a leader to coalesce around, and a simple message- I think Corbyn might have had a chance to be this leader, but now he has totally fucked it and would lose a third GE if when it’s called.

I’m not sure which way things are going to go now, I still think Johnson will call an early election and I also think he’ll have to put a referendum in it to get an extension- if it’s November onward. What I can’t model in my head is how the votes will split. Maybe we’d end up with another Tory/LD coalition, a referendum and a narrow remain victory, who knows.

I think the Tories will beat Labour in the coming GE, but I don’t know what share of the vote will go to BXP and LD. I think the SNP will sweep Scotland, and they’ll offer a coalition in return for a Scottish Independence referendum- maybe a Lib/Lab/SNP coalition? But I think the price of that would be Corbyn goes.

If I understand...

Totally correct.

Corbyn was somewhat quiet about his position because it was massively unpopular in his own party. Plus it’s his style. Most MPs and the vast majority of the membership are still hanging on to remain at all costs. He’s only managed to keep them on-side by championing his policy of ‘avoiding No Deal at all costs’ and the ambiguity around a second ref. He didn’t have the authority to effectively whip, plus it’s not his style ... and yeah, it could very easily have torn Labour apart.

So the push for remain has reduced the likelihood of a soft Brexit imho.

It's important to remember that Brexit is a Tory construct and Labour need to distance themselves from any damage caused by it. Corbyn knows that backing any kind of Tory led 'deal' makes him equally culpable.

For his and (arguably) his political party’s survival ... sure.

How would this have played if the WA had been framed properly, put into it’s true context - as just the first step in agreements with Europe? If that messaging has been strong ... I wonder if Labour could have passed the agreement and survived.

It's important to remember that Brexit is a Tory construct and Labour need to distance themselves from any damage caused by it. Corbyn knows that backing any kind of Tory led 'deal' makes him equally culpable.

.

I was thinking of long running polls of attitudes of Remain VS Leave.

Problem is however that if you vote Conservatives you may get a no-deal anyway, so then you have to go to LibDems, and Labour last time took any Labour votes as Leave votes.

So in reality, we are stuck with the parties and only Labour/Libdems are willing to give something now.

Abour the Conservatives, it seems they don't care. You are right they are for the Leavers, and only for the English leavers too.

Of course the WA was really just a path to get a deal, with an economic hit inbetween and several options left afterwards.

The "backstop" now has become some sort of symbol, whereas in reality with time and money and some alignment it can be -mostly- solved.

But not if the political will is not there and the hardliners refuse to accept the UK will have to ask now, and cannot demand.

In the meantime not a word is spoken anymore about the criminal investigation about leave campaign money which the police is sitting on.

There's little said about how the 'remain' side intends to placate the unhappy 50% of the country that voted leave too, there is still no positive persuasion of how the EU can help those in the UK that feel they're being left behind. Just a return to a status quo that was great for some, but obviously not for the others.

And in this is the entirety of the problem.

Both sides moving further apart and becoming ever more entrenched.

It would be hard to forgive those who voted away the rights of my family.

Guess this will be the new normal for the next several generations.

Even if Brexit was reversed I'd still be owed three years of my life back.

Some of these areas have gotten EU funding which will then be gone. (ironically, developing regions funding was a tory idea!)

There was funding available for flood defense/food banks, Cameron turned it down. It would not surprise me if there are more pots that can be accessed if the UK would only...ask. So Remain can definitely point that out, though some people just shrugged when the nice new business park paid for with EU money was mentioned. No idea what to do there...

Why is nobody talking about rich leave voters btw? And well off pensioners? It is always the "left behind" that are seen as the leave causers... :)

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/priti-patel-and-3-million-eu-citizens-1-6228744

So this article, written by a group that stands up for EU citizen rights (working with Brits abroad) up one day and then gets the Home Office "asking" to change it...

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1164609467473911808.html

If only Leave BS was held to the same scrutiny. Salient line: "Since the referendum, we have been told by Patel, Gove and Johnson that they were unable to deliver on the citizens' rights referendum pledge, because they were not in charge to deliver on that promise. Now that they are in government, instead of delivering, they are doing the opposite. "

Just give them blue passports

That’s all they wanted

Guess this will be the new normal for the next several generations.

Really? I was hoping the miro/bleakrefs thing would die down sooner than that.

I'm not saying the reasons aren't there, just that the message is no where to be seen. Actually the labour party (shock!) has loads of great policy ideas too, but they seldom get any press.
We need to move forward, not back, whether that is back to the UK pre-brexit vote, or back 60 years to post war rationing is a redundant argument.

We need to move forward, not back

Any excuse

The best post on this thread in ages

I dunno I thought the Astrix one was pretty good

Why is nobody talking about rich leave voters btw? And well off pensioners? It is always the "left behind" that are seen as the leave causers... :)

This. Haven't loads of studies confirmed that lots of leavers are actually pretty well off and the stereotype of poor vote leave, wealthy vote remain isn't accurate?

Rich may come out of Brexit well- income tax slashed to “super charge” the economy, tax haven status preserved. Why would they change? The old are probably going to die before you can convince them to change, and they may have a big enough asset and £ pool to get to death before being hit by Brexit - again, they may be fine.

Nissan line worker in the factory who voted leave, has a young family? You my friend are absolutely fucked, and may be fucked for the next 40 years. Changing your mind would be both possible and productive.

Of course, you’re still fucked now, but hey ho- you voted for all manufacturing to leave the UK so that’s on you unfortunately.