EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Isn't G basically what'd happen anyway? Except that I don't see May choosing, she'll take a bee-line for No Deal.

Yeah, that would be the expectation, and that's roughly what happened preceding the 29th.

May doesn't want No Deal though IMO. I'm 95% sure of that. She's had an opportunity to take us out with No Deal and she acted pretty rapidly to prevent it. She knows how damaging it'd be to (in order of the importance she places on them) her own legacy, to her party's popularity/electoral prospects and to the country. Scotland would leave, NI would leave, economy would divebomb. She'd cement herself as worst PM maybe of all time.

She likes having it as a big scary cliff-edge to scare people into doing what she wants but that's all.

Oh I agree that she doesn't want it. She wants to be the one to 'deliver Brexit' with her deal.

But do I think she'll choose no deal over revocation? I'm convinced of it. She might fuck off Cameron-style and get some ERG person to lead the country into no deal to avoid causing it directly, but I really don't see her advocating revocation (which she'd had to do publicly as it would need to be confirmed by Parliament at the very least).

Naked climate protest in the public gallery...never a dull day at the moment.

2 Attachments

Right, yeah. I'm not sure how she'd come down on a revoke/no deal decision - sad to say you might be right that she'd go down the party unity route and go for no deal.

Equally she could revoke and blame MPs, she has no problem doing that apparently.

I fear that the motion is too sensible to pass anyway so we might never find out...

I’ve generally been impressed by the guardian’s live blogging over the past few months (and years..!)

Regarding the motion/amendment nomenclature - is it not that within the confines of the indicative votes they’re motions, but should one be successful it would (potentially, if accepted) become an amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement?

Yeah I like the Guardian live blog too. I mean I barely understand parliamentary procedure but I would hope their politics journalists understand the machinations better than me...

Some of them relate to the WA and ought to become amendments or specify that the WA should be amended, yes. But some of them such as today's motion G don't strictly relate to the WA - in fact if added as amendments to the WA it would defeat the purpose, because it wouldn't be necessary in the event the WA passed, and if the WA doesn't pass it won't be law, in which case it doesn't prevent No Deal!

Govt. preparing for Euro elections (aka long extension)

Government authorises spending on contingency planning for UK to hold European elections

an amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement

... which I thought can't be amended without those on the other side of the negotiating table?

They're not even naked, just topless. The problem with the climate can't be that bad, then.

good point; well made! :)

by ‘other side’ do you mean May’s government, or the EU (or both..!)?

Debate was pretty boring today. Votes have started.

My predictions:

C barely passes
D barely fails
E barely passes
G fails

Debate was pretty boring today. Votes have started.

My predictions:

C, Customs Union, barely passes
D, Common Market 2.0, barely fails
E, Confirmatory Public Vote, barely passes
G, failure cascade ending in revoke, fails

No no no no

Quoting me in case I try to sneakily change them? Haha

Debate was pretty boring today.

At least there was a debate and a genuine attempt at compromise and consensus. Pretty riveting anomalous session.

Prediction:
C fail
D pass
E pass
G fail

Shame labour choking over G.

C pass (not enough for NI border though... so more hassle/talking/going back to come)
D fail
E pass
G fail

E fail
P fail
I fail
C fail

Shit

Fuckity fuck.

Wat now?

in the first round of indicative votes, the second/confirmatory referendum had 295 votes in its favour, but today only 280 (defeated by 12)... curious as to what happened to those 15...

We take back control!

resignation