EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

They vote yes/no to each option and have proposed to set aside Monday for the same again (with fewer options and maybe some sort of knockout voting system) assuming that today's outcomes aren't clear

Astonishing statement by Mark Francois on World At One where he described Jacob Rees-Mogg as “his boss”.

It reminded me of a comment by James Naughtie last week where he talked about the problems within the Conservative party that grew more pronounced after the (misguided) efforts to keep the party together when it was threatened by a strengthening UKIP. He suggested that in other countries that renegade group (i.e. the ERG) might otherwise have separated into its own party, and it would be a kind of National Front.

So you might see JRM as running an NF party within the Conservative group...

Oh dear.

Pardon my ignorance here, but where are we with the extension now?
Has it been decisively been granted by the EU, or are they still waiting for a reason?

i think its 12th april if nothing happens or 22nd May if May's withdraws agreement is approved by Parliament.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47660019

if May's withdrawn agreement is not agreed in Parliament by 12th April, the British Govt will have to indicate a way forward to EU to avoid a leave with no deal scenario -
at the moment the way forward options look like:

(i) a longer extension of Art 50 to allow for a confirmatory vote on whatever consensus parliament reaches
(ii) a longer extension of Art 50 to allow for a general election if no consensus is reached or if one is but there is no majority in parliament for a confirmatory vote; or if there is one and the government simply refuse to acknowledge it (likely given their position to date which is Brexit means the governments definition of brexit and their refusal to break any manifesto promises from the last election).

Any Tooting ward residents here?

Dr Rosena is asking her constituents which version of Brexit (or not) we want:

https://www.drrosena.co.uk/brexitoptions.html

Seriously lucky to have such a good MP.

Yeah, its now the 12th of April at the earliest.

The Statutory Instrument being debated tonight is to chnage elements of UK law to match - without it, there would be a legislative black hole in loads of laws between the end of March and the actual exit date. The SI up for debate is a technical fix rather than substantive SI and realistically will pass easily.

Labour are only after a referendum on the Tory deal it seems. If it's their deal then it will be so good that it won't need a referendum

https://mobile.twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1110895020209516544

Utter fantasy land there. "A better Brexit" has now become Labour's version of "Brexit means Brexit".

there seem to be conflicting accounts about that...lots of reports that labour will be whipping to support the Becket amendment unconditionally (i.e. confirmatory vote)

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-vote-labour-corbyn-whip-commons-a8841901.html

I think (but now can't actually find it) that the Margret Becket amendment is limited to this sitting of parliament.

As a 'labour deal' would require them first to win a general election, we would then be in another sitting and the amendment would not apply.

Edit - found it - "That this House will not allow in this Parliament the implementation and ratification of any withdrawal agreement and any framework for the future relationship unless and until they have been approved by the people of the United Kingdom in a confirmatory public vote."

does that mean that if that there is a general election then all bets are off in respect of any 2nd referendum / confirmatory vote? makes sense i suppose.

Rees-Mogg, that salt of the earth man of the people, has just been tearing strips off his fellow Conservative MPs because they went to the wrong school, i.e. Winchester rather than Eton.

He really knows how to stick it to the elite, doesn’t he?

Corbyn/McClusky [Unite ignores his members too on Brexit]/etc: We just get a better (eg less shit) deal and forget about the 6 tests cos they can't apply in any Brexit cos it's a "better Brexit"
Starmer/others: Em, going for a GE failed, so referendum on WA VS Remain right? You know, cos our members are mostly Remain, so are our voters and this was voted in on the Labour conference???

Oh, it's only been going on for months now. Deep sigh, maybe we know next week.

Oh lol.

2 Attachments

does that mean that if that there is a general election then all bets are off in respect of any 2nd referendum / confirmatory vote?

Yes - this suggest labours support for a confirmation vote is only in respect of a tory brexit and not a labour brexit (or any other brexit after a GE)

makes sense i suppose.

Does it? i think its mad - you either support putting it back to the people or you don't. A softer Brexit is many ways more pointless than a hard Brexit.

i meant that it makes sense that the opportunity for democratic expression in a general election would be preferable in one sense to a 2nd referendum as it avoids the criticism of "asking as many time as it takes to get an answer you like" -
my personal preference would be for a discrete vote on brexit since it would allow the next general election to be decided on other important issues

I see your point. I do wonder what campaigns would be like if we had another GE before brexit gets decided. Fuck knows what any one party would stand for.

Bahahahahahahhahahaha...

Yes, but as much as May is trying to make the argument of "80-something % of people voted for a party that wants to uphold the referendum result" and therefore turn a GE into a vote on Brexit, it just really isn't. Not only are there plenty of other important issues (as you say), but also the specifics of FPTP make it famously unwise to vote for anything but the two major parties. Which both said the outcome of the referendum would be 'upheld', with just as little detail on what that really means as the referendum itself contained.

have we had this yet?
https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1110811956678742016?s=07

i agree entirely - a GE without the brexit issue being resolved will make many if not most people feeling very conflicted and could result in awkward results...

For those not following these are the options selected by Bercow. B has no hope. L would be hilarious and completely obliterate any prospects of no deal (but as a side effect pushing ERG towards a more realistic option such as May's deal unfortunately). M might be close as Labour are whipping for it - depends on the number of rebels (on both sides). O has been ruled out by the EU for being a unicorn and only ERG nutters want it anyway. Not sure which of the others has a chance... they're not all that different

B - John Baron’s - No deal

Backed by Conservative MPs John Baron, David Amess, Martin Vickers and Stephen Metcalfe, the motion proposes leaving the European Union without a deal on April 12.

D - Nick Boles’s - common market 2.0

Tabled by Conservatives Nick Boles, Robert Halfon and Andrew Percy and Labour’s Stephen Kinnock, Lucy Powell and Diana Johnson. The motion proposes UK membership of the European free trade association and European Economic Area. It allows continued participation in the single market and a “comprehensive customs arrangement” with the EU after Brexit, which would remain in place until the agreement of a wider trade deal which guarantees frictionless movement of goods and an open border in Ireland.

H - George Eustice’s - Efta and EEA

A motion tabled by Conservative MP George Eustice – who quit as agriculture minister this month to fight for Brexit – proposes remaining within the EEA and rejoining Efta, but remaining outside a customs union with the EU. The motion was also signed by Conservative MPs including former minister Nicky Morgan and head of the Brexit Delivery Group Simon Hart.

J - Ken Clarke’s - Customs union

Requires a commitment to negotiate a “permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union with the EU” in any Brexit deal. Tabled by veteran Conservative Europhile Ken Clarke, backed by Labour’s Yvette Cooper, Helen Goodman and chair of the Commons Brexit committee Hilary Benn and Tory former ministers Sir Oliver Letwin and Sarah Newton.

K - Labour’s - Customs union and alignment with single market

Labour has tabled a motion proposing its plan for a close economic relationship with the EU. The plan includes a comprehensive customs union with a UK say on future trade deals; close alignment with the single market; matching new EU rights and protections; participation in EU agencies and funding programmes; and agreement on future security arrangements, including access to the European arrest warrant

L - Joanna Cherry’s - Revocation to avoid no deal

Under this plan, if the government has not passed its withdrawal agreement, it would have to stage a vote on a no-deal Brexit two sitting days before the scheduled date of departure. If MPs refuse to authorise no-deal, the prime minister would be required to halt Brexit by revoking article 50. The motion, tabled by the SNP’s Joanna Cherry, has been signed by 33 MPs including the Conservative former attorney general Dominic Grieve, the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Vince Cable, Labour’s Ben Bradshaw and all 11 members of the Independent Group.

M - Dame Margaret Beckett’s - Confirmatory public vote

Drawn up by Labour MPs Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson and tabled by former foreign secretary Dame Margaret Beckett with the backing of scores of MPs across the House, this motion would require a public vote to confirm any Brexit deal passed by parliament before its ratification.

O - Marcus Fysh’s - Contingent preferential arrangements

A group of Conservative MPs, including Marcus Fysh, Steve Baker and Priti Patel, have signed a motion that calls for the government to seek to agree preferential trade arrangements with the EU, in case the UK is unable to implement a withdrawal agreement with the bloc.

Imagine this had been done at the start of the whole process - I wonder how many votes for an arrangement similar to TM's red lines would have garnered....

May should probably have done this two years ago.

Daily reminder this is for the exit/transition agreement ... the easy bit.