EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

It's going to be interesting to say the least.

If there is no extension from the EU, and there's no other deal in place (or likely to be in place which would let the EU grant us a shorter extension to thrash out), then the house will be forced to make a decision prior to 11pm March 29th. Either:

• it does nothing and we Hard Brexit(+), or
  

• the only other option is to revoke A50 and repeal the EU Withdrawal Act

• If we get to that position then you have to remember that the majority of MPs voted against exiting with no deal in a very recent vote.

Either way it'll have profound consequences for the Government and Parliament.

Keep reading that if she gets a short extension, May will try to bring her deal back for a third time. Since that's been stopped by Bercow, why is it still on the cards? Are people predicting if she gets the extension, she'll use constitutional skullduggery to overrule Bercow, or is there some more conventional way of doing it?

bring her deal back for a third time

It is all she's got.
Parliament has voted against 'No Deal'.
Then it is either the TMWA, A50 extension, or A50 revocation.

It could be argued that the agreement of an extension would be a material change to the bill being put before the house and it could get in that way.

Bercow didn't rule it out of ever coming back, he just said it currently can't come back unchanged (for MV2 there had been big enough changes from the EU in the associated legal assurances to warrant a second attempt).

May could get her deal back in a number of ways (in order of increasing skullduggery):-

a) Get the EU to agree to some other changes to the associated legal assurances such that it would pass as being different enough to warrant a third vote. The EU might be up for this as it would help resolve some of the uncertainty. (The EU, despite saying they wouldn't make changes, will almost certainly make changes. They said they weren't making changes last time and then made some). It's unclear exactly how much and what has to change, which puts Bercow in a tricky position.

b) Have a vote in Parliament to change the conventions/rules/etc that two motions cannot be debated more than once in the same session. As Bercow himself said, if things don't change they just stay the same. Nothing procedurally wrong with this.

c) Prorogue Parliament so it is in a new session.

d) Some other as yet unknown loophole to force the motion onto the order papers with the same deal.

She's got to be pretty confident that the deal will pass (i.e. she's bunged enough money to the DUP/ERG MPs) otherwise she/it is completely fux0red.

Thanks for that link.
I'm calling bullshit.
I distinctly remember Teresa Villiers, who had been a Northern Ireland minister for Cameron,
being asked on tv about the repercussions of brexit on the British border on the island of Ireland,
and,
she brushed away the question, doubting that the border could in any way be a hindrance to the 'one true brexit' and wondered at the temerity of the interviewer for even raising the topic.

I detect a Gove-ist thread to brexit thinking, about the land border between the UK & the EU27, where the GFA is invalid as it started with John Major (traitorously in their view), condoning secret talks with the IRA.

Re (a) The DUP still seems to want a time limited backstop, the EU won't give them that. They really have talked themselves into a corner as they kept insisting on that from the start.

The cynical person in me says that even if they budge it won't matter, you can stick a rosetta on a goat in NI and they vote for the goat if it is the right colour rosetta. [clearly not everyone votes like that, but the tribalism is very strong] Because their voters definitely won't go to SF, and the race in most areas is between the DUP and SF...or there is no race at all.

They may lose Belfast South but that's it.

An extension with a GE may get rid of them, but I've not heard that one mentioned yet.

She was another useless Sectretary of State, kissing up to the Tories but not doing anything useful for NI.

Smarties are doing a Unicorn flavoured Easter egg. It tastes of sovereignty with free trade and no added immigrants.

https://groceries.asda.com/product/coming-soon-for-easter/smarties-unicorn-giant-egg/1000107572051

Translation: everyone on the left wants a second Ref, and Remain, except Corbyn.

Erm, I certainly wouldn't call any of the other parties other than the Greens 'on the left'.

He's so incredibly duplicitous

If you were to pick one thing that Corbyn absolutely is not, it would probably have to be this.

Sorry Oliver, your view is totally at odds with his behaviour.

Answer me this - what does he stand for, on this question? What is his stance?

It's known that only Smarties have the answer. We should have consulted them earlier.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/03/25/the-chaotic-triumph-of-arron-banks-the-bad-boy-of-brexit?fbclid=IwAR1SEwe1WlFez1vU9vexl3jcK1UkERaYkK9LAFnz5KmW_X78g2VbXSL2ndA

The new yorker, as always, gives a fair and indepth hearing and nuanced view. But I really still can't rate him as other than a scumbag.

What about the SNP? And Plaid Cymru?

No, not at all. The apparent lack of consistency with his behaviour is simply because since the referendum he has had to say that Labour 'respects the result of the referendum'.

Answer me this - what does he stand for, on this question? What is his stance?

I think it's useful to look at what he said before the referendum, e.g. in the Labour leadership contest:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jul/28/jeremy-corbyn-backs-british-membership-of-eu

As he also said several times after the referendum, he is (personally) in favour of 'remain and reform'. I've seen nothing to suggest that this has changed.

I've argued here before that I think he is right, however, that his party should 'respect the result of the referendum' and it also has to have a '"Brexit" plan' at the moment--perfunctory though it is, and probably unworkable, too, while less unworkable than May's 'red lines' conundrum--as the referendum result still hovers around in the ether of its poor definition (no clear idea on whether it's binding (strictly speaking it isn't, of course, it was only ever advisory, but because no threshold was set at which its advice should be followed, its subject matter nonetheless has a divisive power that if ignored threatens trust in democracy)).

Corbyn's strategy is definitely to eventually force Theresa May to revoke Article 50, so that the Tories would be saddled with this 'betrayal', as an ardent 'Brexiteer' might put it. This is a game of chicken and it's completely unclear who will win it. Thrills and spills galore guaranteed, hold on to your seats as we come to the final cliffhanger.

(I obviously don't want the UK to leave the EU, in case people read this who haven't seen me say it before.)

https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1108340506537459712/photo/1

May officially requests extension to June 30th.

Response will be fun.

Both are nationalist parties who have some broadly left wing, but also some right wing policies. I see them both as mixed. Plaid Cymru is certainly more left than the SNP, which seems to have gone more rightwing particularly in the last ten years or so, and that is probably because one party is in government and the other isn't.

Have we had this yet?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/18/thousands-of-children-could-become-undocumented-after-brexit-new-windrush-generation

I wrote, (well emailed) my MP last night.
My main intention was to counter the oft repeated brexitty claim that
'my constituents keep telling me to just Get In With It'.
I doubt my MP, Nick Hurd, a junior minister, will even see my email,
but hopefully his spad/assitant is keeping a tally of for/against.

I would urge everyone who contributes here to ensure their MP hears
of their opinion,
otherwise, typically, the MP's view will only be based upon their
(likely) kippy local Conservative association.

EU have allegedly already turned down anything but a long delay according to The Independent

Which is the sensible thing. What can we achieve in another 3 months that could have been done since the referendum is negligible.

It seems every time May invokes “because will of the people” or other bollocks it could just be replaced with “because I wish to stall and prevaricate to stay in power for as long as possible”. She clearly doesn’t have the interest of the UK at heart.

She could argue that she has: by not letting the right wing of the party dominate the tory party it stops those whoppers like JRM getting in.

While we teeter on the precipice of a JRM endorses no deal Brexit.

And in the meantime she has requested a short extension which the EU are reluctant to grant, and if they say no it plays right into the gammons trotters.