EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

TM live, still ignoring those who voted Remain.
'Get on with it' is now the voice of the people.

She's a horrible creepy fantasist

I enjoyed the large yellow bollocks to brexit bus that casually slid past in the background of the BBC correspondent earlier

I saw a bollocks to Brexit fully wrapped black cab from Pimlico Plumbers tonight

Someone please explain to me the point of repeat VoC motions as threatened by Corbyn.
It is getting quite clear that no-one within the Tory party has got the guts to push for leadership just yet.
On the other hand it doesn't look like Labour will ever get their GE (before 2022 obvs.).
To me it looks more and more like the EU will have to offer some concessions in order to come out of the current deadlock.
And then there's the small matter of European elections in May. Hmmmm....

To me it looks more and more like the EU will have to offer some concessions in order to come out of the current deadlock.

They won't. They haven't for the last two years, they're not going to now.

offer some concessions

The EU27 have offered the only Withdrawal Agreement that is possible with May's Red Lines from her Lancaster House speech,
no Customs Union, no Freedom of Movement, no membership of the Single Market and withdraw from the European Court of Justice.

While May is a hostage to her kippy fringe =ERG, and has to maintain those Red Lines,
there is no point 'senior Parliamentarians' meeting with her,
because no amount of explanation can get her Withdrawal Agreement through the House of Parliament.

Don't forget the lying Leavers were promising 'just as it is now but better'
https://www.lfgss.com/comments/14577150/

I personally wouldn't be surprised if May's Red Lines were to shift over the next few days in order to get others behind her deal.
Meanwhile that clock is ticking...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jan/16/brexit-vote-theresa-may-faces-no-confidence-vote-after-crushing-defeat

Guardian reports Telegraph story that Phil Hammond has just said 'No Deal' will be 'off the table' in a couple of days ......

Leavers disagree with you.

There are sufficient Tory Leavers who fervently believe in each Red Line.
They will claim that allowing any Red Line to be ignored or crossed will be
BiNO/'Brexit in Name Only',
(and they would be correct).
But, the EU27, have been clear the Four Freedoms are indissoluble,
you cannot have the 'bits' of membership that suit you without all the others.

They won't. They haven't for the last two years, they're not going to now.

Although the original EU position was that the UK would need to pick an off-the-shelf deal and no bespoke deal would be possible. Yet May's WA is a bespoke deal. The EU does soften, but glacially, certainly not fast enough for the rejigging of deals required now.

Of course the EU are going to state that they're not going to negotiate any more on May's WA, to say otherwise would be inherently foolish. But that doesn't mean they won't (I don't think they will).

I'm guessing that May is just going to keep pushing minor variations of her deal (rolling the turd in glitter or adding cherries on top as required) in a horrible game of chicken with the EU believing that the EU won't let us go out without a deal in place. If the EU doesn't blink (I don't think it will) then she'll be left scrabbling around for an extension.

Various quotes today about a 2nd ref taking a minimum of 22 weeks from start to finish, not enough time to get it done by the EU elections in May (22 weeks from today is 19th June). This is why the calls for a second referendum (without revoking A50 first) are essentially doomed.

I'd quite enjoy it if she was actually still clinging to her pre-referendum Remain beliefs and is purposely dithering in order to end up with no choice (her deal, and successive deals, all voted down; no deal not an option thanks to Parliament; out of extension time; not enough time for a 2nd ref; etc) but revoke A50, take the wrath and toddle off out of politics (2nd PM in a row to disappear leaving someone else to sort out a steaming pile of shit).

My predictions:-

• 30th March 2019 we'll still be in the EU
  
• A50 will be revoked at some point, however...
  
• another referendum will be called, somehow worded to give people more choice in the type of Brexit they want and using some form of STV or preference system
  
• If there is a form of Brexit then it'll effectively be BRINO (retain freedoms, still in customs union, etc)
  
• Next GE (whenever that is) will be a hung parliament
  
  

Other than staying in the customs union there hasn't been a permanent solution proposed for the NI/Eire border problem that doesn't shit all over the GFA.

Other than staying in the customs union there hasn't been a permanent solution proposed for the NI/Eire border problem that doesn't shit all over the GFA.

The solution there seems to be to just ignore the border. The issue with the border is really whether some other WTO nation complains that we're giving Eire/EU favourable treatment. That would take a while to resolve so would give further opportunity to actually find a solution.

To me it looks more and more like the EU will have to offer some concessions in order to come out of the current deadlock.

There is no point in offering concessions to a government that has no ability to deliver on its side of the bargain. It would only weaken the EU leadership to no gain.

Britain is the alcoholic on your street asking for money so he can travel into town and get some cash from his bank branch. When you give him a note and he staggers back round the corner with four cans of Special Brew, people look on you as an unreliable idiot. They already knew what he is.

I've had heated words with a few people that voted remain (at work in London) who now say we should just get on with it and leave. They believe that we would look weak if we tried to stay now. Im of the opinion that it looks weaker to dig our heels in and be stubborn and STILL leave despite knowing its like shooting ourselves in the knees. both of them. with a cannon.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46891186

Green cards needed to prove your insurance for driving abroad. Oh and IDP will probably be required too.

(If no deal)

The issue with the border is really whether some other WTO nation complains that we're giving Eire/EU favourable treatment.

BBC article upthread suggested that exemptions are possible for instances of National Security - presumably intended to allow much harder borders than WTO normal - and that it could be argued that maintaining the GFA is a National Security issue so could defend a non WTO border between NI/RoI

Yep, there are various arguments that could be used to draw it out. No one knows whether they'd work but it would take plenty of time before a definitive judgement could be reached.

Not just that. The BBC is piss poor in details.

There are also goods checks to be done to prevent NI becoming a way to get non EU compliant goods into ROI.

Even with mature borders like Zwitserland / Norway physical checks get done. ANPR won't work with such a messy undefined border.

The erg admitted there is currently no technical solution.

Various quotes today about a 2nd ref taking a minimum of 22 weeks from start to finish, not enough time to get it done by the EU elections in May (22 weeks from today is 19th June). This is why the calls for a second referendum (without revoking A50 first) are essentially doomed.

Actually, someone has come up with a cunning way to do it since MEPs don't take their place until July.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46894544

The new MEPs don't start work until July so the UK could just not participate in the EU elections in May.

However it does create a big problem if the 2nd ref then says "remain" as we'd have no MEPs. But that's much less of a problem than the current fuckup.

Alternatively we could have EWexit: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/17/semi-brexit-england-wales-leaving-eu-solution

I don't think a semi is going to satisfy those who wanted a really hard one.

I don't think a semi is going to satisfy those who wanted a really hard one.

/thread ends

/thread ends

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