EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Weren't the opinion polls prior to the referendum mainly showing remain as more popular than leave? Obviously that wasn't reflected in the referendum result.

Outside of the echo chambers of LFGSS and the like there is still plenty of appetite for leave, and still a surprisingly large appetite for a no-deal. I'm even aware of people who have moved from remain to leave as they've not been happy with the EU's attitude during the process (refusing any future trade talks for instance).

I wouldn't be overly surprised if May's deal did somehow get through at the last minute, just a gut feeling.

Weren't the opinion polls prior to the referendum mainly showing remain as more popular than leave?

For some time, yes, but it was showing it as being extremely close either way. The polls were really not far off at all, people just didn't take them seriously it seems.

I'm even aware of people who have moved from remain to leave as they've not been happy with the EU's attitude during the process

Now that really is a special type of 'head up their own ass' though.

Yes of course but she is comparing apples and pears here.

I didn't know she was against the assembly. In that case FFS some hypocrisy!

You sound surprised?

some of the boys in the data witchcraft department where i earn a crust have put together one of their sentiment analysis bits on all this nonsense. So far they've correctly predicted the outcome of:

brexit round 1
most recent GE
trump

https://sentiment.bjss.io/

The factors driving this swing, according to pollsters, are the state of the economy and the perceived consequence of a ‘hard Brexit’.

Basically gammons are worried about the value of their houses

and if houses are cheap, brown people might be able to afford them hrrumphrumphrumph.

And most of the polls are still showing it as extremely close, a second referendum wouldn't necessarily end up with leave being overturned as many assume (and would arguably give more of a mandate for a hard brexit).

That's not to say they're happy with the UK attitude either but I don't think many could argue that the EU have been flawless in this shitstorm.

but I don't think many could argue that the EU have been flawless in this shitstorm.

My biggest issue here is that a lot of people were going into this process with the attitude of "we have the upper hand, we'll just have to wait and call their bluff and they'll fold", indicating they were in favour of aggressive negotiating, pressing any advantage the UK has. Then when this turned out to be a total fantasy and the EU was clearly more in control of the whole thing (as you would expect, seeing as it is the local superpower), suddenly there was much crying and whining about the evil EU and their dastardly tactics.

https://sentiment.bjss.io/

interesting

"The engine then processes each of these Tweets in real-time using a general NLP (natural language processing) classifier to determine the Tweet’s tone – either positive or negative - towards Brexit."

Magnets?

Magnets?

Just a computer program looking for words and word combinations. Similar kind of thing powers Siri and Hey Google and whatnot.

This end date amendment to the WA is worrying me.

I wonder how many Brexiteers on the Costa Del Incontinence are prepared to retake their driving test in Spanish?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46865094

A brexit dividend ..... that is a surcharge!

as the company expects increasing demand for shipping services to the UK.

Surge pricing for container vessels...

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/gavin-williamson-suggests-firing-paintballs-at-spanish-ships-in-gibraltar/?fbclid=IwAR0lCUyB00OZnZIC5HkZ4g83-Oi9MM7teZqV4mM4zsVTcjYFR6aB9dAtbZg

"The Defence Secretary has suggested firing paintballs to deter Spanish ships from trespassing in Gibraltar’s waters. Gavin Williamson raised eyebrows by making the unusual recommendation during a regular Ministry of Defence meeting with senior armed forces staff."

ok...

Yep, anyone that runs a Shipping company is pretty good at running a Shipping company.
Ministers, MPs, and Civil Servants are not.
Grayling has opened the Brexit wallet and shown companies over £100m.
Who wouldn't want to dip their bread in that gravy?

Possibly inspire by Spike Milligan:
'Spike himself became 'Gunner' Milligan with the Royal Artillery during World War II.
In training he said the gun crews had to shout bang in unison as they had no shells.'

Hahahaha. Yeah if only this Brexit was some post-modern farce play eh?

Something that either Tate Modern or Putin would snap up in a jiffy.

Most striking contribution in Cabinet came from Brandon Lewis, someone in the room tells me. Tory chairman came down very hard on opening talks with Labour: “The party wouldn’t wear it,” he said.

The entire balls up right there. If May (or anyone) had had the balls to set up a proper cross-party Brexit team they might have been able to negotiate a compromise that would have brought people together rather than drove them apart.
Would still have been some frothers on the margins, but straight after the ref the language and expectations were far softer and could have got far more of a 'mandate'.

Assuming TM loses the vote tonight, what is the chance of her "doing a David" and leaving the sinking ship?
It's not like she's been very open about her future plan or The Plan B, is it?

Any cross party consensus would have been nullified by the
Nick Timothy-written Lancaster House speech with all its red lines.

Bercow didn't select the Murrison amendment!

Mega japes.

Stealing from /u/RoyalHelicopter on reddit:

Here are my predictions

• May pulls the fire alarm in an attempt to delay the vote

• Jacob Rees-Mogg will demand a duel with Boris Johnson over who will replace May.

• Jean-Claude Juncker will enter the House of Commons bearing arms and riding horseback, declaring that Belgium has taken control over the United Kingdom.

• Banksy will trigger a hidden shredder that will turn the maze to bits

• Corbyn will state his opinion on Brexit

As The Guardian's John Crace constantly reiterates,
May's short term plan is simply to survive day-by-day.

She has already agreed not to lead the Tories into the next General Election,
so,
she could quite easily just think:
'Fuck it.
This rabble, (the internecine squabbling amongst the Tories),
are ungovernable. Let someone waste their life'.
Let's hope so.