EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1044532574255636480

Or an AV style, where you list your 1st, 2nd and 3rd preference. But either way, my point was I don't think there is going to be a landslide vote for remain.

See the poll @aggi posted above. So many people are not following the negotiations and just want to get on with it.

Sorry Oliver, you can’t accuse me of fantasies whilst floating the idea of a British car maker post Brexit.

You reckon Morgan will fold?

Depends, really - they're very low volume and don't rely on JIT, but they are also totally dependent on external suppliers for the engines, transmissions, suspension system, engine management etc - all of which will be much more expensive. If they can stay afloat in a recession whilst also charging higher prices then they'll be ok.

So yes, I reckon they'll fold.

They should fold. Made of wood ain't they?

A large part of the population, roughly 48% at the last count, have not had representation for the past 27 months.

But a large number of them thought that they did - in Labour. That's part of the reason that May lost her majority, as floating voters went to Labour as they were perceived as opposing Brexit.

So what if large corporations can't constantly roll their lorries out of their Amazon warehouses easily or export cars across borders any more? We'll rebuild a British car industry. We'll have more local businesses again that employ more people. So what if we can't get tomatoes from Holland easily again? We'll make British farming great again. If the Dutch can build hydroponic greenhouses, so can we. Oh, of course, there may be a period of adjustment, but we'll fill that vacuum. 'We have to start somewhere' instead of continuing further down the rabbit hole, don't we?

This is the "destroy everything and rebuild from the ashes" approach.

I do not think that the people who work in the industries which will be destroyed will agree that this is the way forward. It will take time, and that period of time will be longer than one parliament. It will let the Tories back in.

As I said, it's not what I think. I certainly think the idea of a new British car maker is fanciful, but we're obviously just trying to talk down Britishness.

I wouldn't describe the approach in that way, but I certainly agree that it would be fraught with, erm, difficulties. I was just trying to summarise views that have been expressed.

It would be easier if you said what you believe, Oliver, rather than repeat the views of others whilst distancing yourself from them.

"These are my views, well - views I have heard. If you don't like them I have others"

The general point is that people are very unhappy with 'the economy', illustrated by what some think.

Brexit is the ultimate game of Political Chicken. Whoever blinks first can lose, and nit just for a solitary parliamentary term.
Excepting the wellknown Labour leavers, Brexit is a Tory shitshow for the last 40 years. The 'willofthepeople' press will castigate Labour for even mild support for Remain/2nd Referendum. Labour will do well to push their innovative policies and let the Tories implode, maybe at next weeks party conference, maybe as negotiations show the Chequers fudge now has no backers except May, maybe in the run in to March 2019. The big bucket of shit attached to brexit is nearly overbalancing onto the Tory party. Labour in Keir Starmer have the intellect to see what is going on.
They just the orgainsational balls to wait.

So far Labour is hinting at cakeism (Corbyn and his visa for baristas, lel) and Starmer is somewhat more intelligent.

But they won't get a better deal either, are they will to roll the thing back? Or just say in the CU and SM and lose euro clearance to France?

So far the Brexit TV season has been nail biting ;)

The problem with playing chicken is that you run the very real risk of running out of time to do anything that can actually change direction (i.e. some form of organised legislative intervention) when you eventually decide to act.

BTW I agree with Schicky in that if / when it comes to a GE pre-brexit, labour voting remain folks will vote for Labour even if they are pissed that Corbyn won't do what they want, should they agree with the manifesto and be able to stomach Corbyn.

If they don't, it will be more antipathy to Corbyn and his crew than their policy on Brexit.

Really? I won't do that; I won't vote for labour unless they grow a spine and oppose.

I'm sure I'm not alone.

It's a very shitty system, and it does depend on your constituency, but if you don't vote for Labour, the Tories will get in for another term.

Considering this is 100% the Tories mess, could you vote for that to happen?

^^Exactly - this is too important to fall along partisan lines.

The coming election has (for me) to be country before party, rather than the direct opposite which is what we are seeing from both the Tories and Labour currently.

so you're not going to vote / spoil your ballot / vote (shudder) lib dem?

BTW I agree with Schicky in that if / when it comes to a GE pre-brexit, labour voting remain folks will vote for Labour even if they are pissed that Corbyn won't do what they want, should they agree with the manifesto and be able to stomach Corbyn.

If they don't, it will be more antipathy to Corbyn and his crew than their policy on Brexit.

Again, one of those things that it would be fascinating to watch happen in another country.

Cakeism keeps the rabid brexit daily papers off their back.
Labour can afford to be vague while waiting for the Tories to implode.

I agree, but with the pre-& post-Salzburg posturing from the Tories, so far any leaving in March 2019 will be a brexit in name only.

so you're not going to vote / spoil your ballot?

If the Tories sack May and re-cast themselves as a Remain party, with Corbyn staying as Leave - then I'd go against my entire voting record and personal beliefs and vote Tory, as the least worst choice.

If it was Tory vs Labour with both advocating Brexit then it's easy to vote Labour, unless something astonishing happens and a third choice appears.