That Corbyn fella...

To try to revive a 'centrist' party would be a mistake as it would fail to acknowledge those evolving circumstances.

But with the divisions, and general mess, in the Conservatives, a Labour Party led by the likes of a Tony Blair would walk the next election.

Many people do keep saying this (a shift in public opinion) but I'm not sure it's true. I think that view is why the electorate are cleaving into divides - because those on the left think that people have shifted to the left, but yet there don't seem to be enough people doing so to actually make a majority.

People like me (and a great number of people I know) haven't shifted more to the left. We've just become more polarised and those on the left (and right) are each shouting louder...

This.

UK politicians in not realising compromise is a solution shocker

I agree. If there is a shift in public opinion it is a recognition that the economics of austerity were pretty personal. Underwhelming at best. Devastating at worst.

I don’t see any appetite for Socialsm or massive spending, but I do think people are open to solutions to some of the bigger problems incoming.

Whoever is in power taxes are going to have to rise. Labour should look into using VAT instead of income and corporation tax (as these are now dodged). VAT actually tracks wealth quite well.

Labour are at least not ideologicaly at odds with tax rises. Any tax rises are politically more painful for the Conservatives. So that’s good.

Programs that actually save money long-term are the low hanging fruit. Chronic underfunding now means these exist all over. Solid plans to rebuilding these could be a vote winner if communicated well.

Yes, I think I'd agree with all of the above. I don't doubt that a centrist party would be successful - and far better than anything that we have currently - but I do think that such a party would fail to solve the deeper problems that have come into public recognition in more recent times. As @miro_o says that includes things like austerity. Similarly, there appears to be greater support for some degree of nationalisation (which would most likely not have been a 'centrist' policy in previous times). Based on the assumption that a 'centrist' party might not prioritise tackling those kinds of issues, then I think it might only be a short-term fix (i.e. possibly get us out of the current crisis, but possibly not have the type of support required to solve that much more...)

I thought VAT unfairly affects people on lower incomes, given a basic level of spending required to function in society?

A raise on income tax across the board is not dodgable by the vast majority of people. Easier to plan for all round too...

Simon Wren-Lewis has written quite interestingly on this kind of stuff.

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2017/07/was-neoliberal-overreach-inevitable.html

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2018/03/the-three-mistakes-of-centrism.html

I wouldn't say that I agree with all of his views, but I find them thought-provoking, and they have encouraged me to reflect on the need for something other than "more of the same" (i.e. a Blair-like Labour party that sits in the middle).

I thought VAT unfairly affects people on lower incomes, given a basic level of spending required to function in society?

Everything I've ever read says this. As does my gut instinct.

I don't really get why you seem to (and apologies if I've misunderstood) think centrism implies accepting and not fixing the issues caused by austerity.

I think austerity - which I'd broadly use to mean a pro-cyclical tightening of public expenditure - is a right wing and ideological policy. It isn't supported by evidence (which suggests that counter-cyclical spending policies are better) so it's hard to see how it can be a centrist (i.e. compromise) position...

Andrew Yang has made pretty convincing arguments for use of VAT.

The number of people due to pay the top rates of tax is increasing rapidly. Accountancy is changing quick too, getting better at marketing these dodges so increasingly high earning individuals pretty much take themselves out of tax. Except VAT.

I'm not really saying that centrism wouldn't seek to address austerity, but perhaps more that by virtue of a centrist party's necessary political spread - i.e. it sits in the middle and soaks up positions both further left and further right - that it probably wouldn't have the mandate to change all that much. For example, those on the right of its group might be expected to resist any attempts to reverse the dismantling of the state during the coalition years. My sense is that the country needs a more dramatic correction than a centrist party could be expected to achieve. That said, I do think a centrist party would be better than what we have at the moment, but I don't believe it would be the long-term solution that we really need. I appreciate that might all sound a bit contradictory, and maybe confusing, and if so, that probably just reflects my state of mind in the current chaotic political environment :)

^^ Ease of collection is a very different argument than fairness of application. The poor are hit harder by raises in VAT than the wealthy because a larger portion of their income ends up going to VAT. It is the opposite of progressive taxation. What was Yang's argument against this?

The number of people due to pay the top rates of tax is increasing rapidly. Accountancy is changing quick too, getting better at marketing these dodges so increasingly high earring individuals pretty much take themselves out of tax. Except VAT.

Taxes on the middle classes need to rise, so increases in Income Tax on the lower and mid bands, with a further increase in exemptions at the lower end. But no party will go into an election with a manifesto that promises tax increases "for the many, not the few".

The poor are hit harder by raises in VAT than the wealthy because a larger portion of their income ends up going to VAT.

I see your point. As percentage of income any taxation other than income tax at current rates will hit low incomes. But the current number out of tax is not desirable because we need the revenue and it does nothing for societal engagement (people can’t contribute). So you could instead roll back Cameron’s raising of the tax threshold, but it won’t raise much revenue. Or you could tax #buyers

Arguments against corporation tax are that it isn’t collected except for small to medium businesses - therefore damaging innovation and revenue is low. Arguments against income tax is it won’t be collected much soon from the largest payers because tech is allowing untaxed accountancy with no geographic location.

tl:dr

VAT paid in the country of goods received may soon be the only workable tax.

But no party will go into an election with a manifesto that promises tax increases "for the many, not the few".

It’s almost as if we need a leader who is willing to make the case for realistic taxation, in order to move past these perceived political-problems.

I hoped this was the right thread for that 🤔

It’s almost as if we need a leader who is willing to make the case for realistic taxation, in order to move past these perceived political-problems.

Yes, but when the Conservatives went into the last election with a policy of taking old peoples homes to pay for care*, it was a disaster, and was partly to blame for the collapse in the lead they had over Labour.

• it was a bit more nuanced than that
  

Was it a good policy, well communicated?

Was it a good policy,

I thought it was a good way of raising money to pay for social care.

well communicated?

What is these days? And as soon as Corbyn said he wouldn't do it, the policy lost any remote chance it had of being a vote winner...

I think it's a mistake to frame the choice as between Corbyn or the EDL

Those aren't the choices - those EDL buffoons will never get anywhere near Westminster. It's between Corbyn and the right of the far more insidious Conservative party.

VAT is a shitter and contributes to the growing gap between rich and poor, more effort should be put into collecting tax properly from those who can afford it most, including wealthy cunts and big business cunts, not loading the burden onto those who are already struggling. Unless you're suggesting VAT exemptions for stuff you need, like food, beer and flat screen tellies, and higher VAT rates on golf related paraphernalia, caviar and Pinnarellos, which would interest me.

500% VAT on super yachts

I get this sentiment but do you think it's not being?

There have been absolutely loads of efforts to prevent avoidance and collect more tax, and justifiably so. Whenever people say "we need to do more" I always wonder if they know anything about what is being done...

Food is exempt.