Yearly Distance Record Attempt (Tommy Godwin - 75,065mi/120,000k)

is not enough sadly, has to be 220's

Thanks. He's DTM now.

Does it? I'm getting 206.5 a day.

41 days he's done 8,160 miles.
Target is 75,065.
Needs to do 66,905 miles in 324 days is giving me 206.5 a day.

true, that'd be enough to eclipse the original record, but if he wants the HAMR(?) then he's got kurt to contend with.

plus, that 206.5 assumes 100% output every day, a greater figure allows for inevitable delays due to mechanicals, sickness, etc.

This is one where I've been struggling with how to work out an estimate of how far they can go. The best I have at the moment it the vs target pages, but Kurt seems to have given up on his targets (lower overall mileage, and no rest days), and Steve's got blown out of the water, and there's been no new plan.

It's also worth noting that Kurt has blown through his buffer over Tommy, and is now not going to be able to tail off as much as he seemed to have planned to do. If he only manages planned mileage from now on (and he's not been doing that recently) He'll be about 730 miles up on the current record.

I think that I need to chat with someone who's a lot better at stats that I am, as I'm sure that there's a way to do this based on what they've completed previously. Any suggestions?

Yes, I was just looking at an absolute rather than trying to anticipate what could happen.

Steve's current plan just seems to be to slog through doing a bit more than is necessary each day on a straight line basis. Whether that will work as winter is coming up is another issue.

I think the problem with trying to do any stats based analysis is that there is very little to base the analysis on. No-one really knows how riding 200 miles a day, every day, for a year will affect the body. As such, past performance may not be an indicator of future performance.

jo at gicentre.org really has the visualisations of this nailed - https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=87407.700#msg1920805

@aggi
I was thinking that Bayesian stats may be the way forward, but I've never quite been able to get my head around how the calculations for them work, but I think that they should be able to give something for this, given that we have both past data, and predicted data for both current runners, and the data from Tommy too.

@rive_gauche
I find it interesting that jo and I have different distances for Kurt, I think that this may be something to do with jo just using the Strava data, and not updating the distances once the UMCA have verified them. I initially use Strava data, but update it with the official data when it is available.
This is really visible at the moment but a little tricky to work out, but I think that Steve day 260/41 is Kurt day 251, where I have Kurt 80+ miles under the record, but jo only shows him at 20 miles under.

jo's also not really done anything that I've been able to see around predictions which is a shame.

--edit--

Looking at http://www.gicentre.net/ I see why jo's work looks nicer than mine :)

Friday 18th Sep - 220.4 mi, 14:52:00 h, 3,875 ft

new attempt cumulative - 8,380.5 mi, 26:04:26:57 d, 200,944 ft

2015 attempt cumulative - 44,058.5 mi, 144:20:57:50 d, 1,135,117 ft

Saturday 19th Sep - 234.9 mi, 14:29:14 h, 4,344 ft

new attempt cumulative - 8,615.4 mi, 26:18:56:11 d, 205,288 ft

2015 attempt cumulative -44,293.4 mi, 145:11:27:04 d, 1,139,461 ft

Sunday 20th Sep - 234.8 mi, 14:36:43 h, 4,692 ft

new attempt cumulative - 8,850.2 mi, 27:09:32:54 d, 209,980 ft

2015 attempt cumulative - 44,528.2 mi, 146:02:03:47 d, 1,144,153 ft

Its like Steve's been reading this thread the way he's just upped the ante. Crazy distances over the weekend. I'll have whatever he had...

he's now only 0.3 of a mile behind where Kurt was at this point, as I read it...

https://goo.gl/RBHtiS

Steve has dropped back to 10.4 miles behind Kurt today, but looking like if he can manage a 200 mile day tomorrow, he should be able to regain the lead.

Monday 21st Sep - 214.1 mi, 14:21:39 h, 3,133 ft

new attempt cumulative - 9,064.3 mi, 27:23:54:33 d, 213,113 ft

2015 attempt cumulative - 44,742.3 mi, 146:16:25:26 d, 1,147,286 ft

I wouldn't be fancying 200+ miles today. But then I'm a bit mimsy.

Tuesday 22nd Sep - 229.7 mi, 16:20:08 h, 2,694 ft

new attempt cumulative - 9,294.0 mi, 28:16:14:41 d, 215,807 ft

2015 attempt cumulative - 44,972.0 mi, 147:08:45:34 d, 1,149,980 ft

He hit 229.7, which is pretty good going, and I think gives him the lead by about 40 miles. now to keep it up.

curtailed lunch stopping, that seems to be doing the trick, more on yacf

Yeah, I signed up there a couple of days ago so that I could ask jo about the differences in our data.

Wednesday 23rd Sep - 207.8 mi, 14:12:04 h, 5,095 ft

new attempt cumulative - 9,501.8 mi, 29:06:26:45 d, 220,902 ft

2015 attempt cumulative - 45,179.8 mi, 147:22:57:38 d, 1,155,075 ft

I've never been on yacf before. Disappointed to learn what the first three letters actually stand for. :(

There's a bit of history on that. A very abridged version:-

ACF came about because some people on the Cycling Plus forum got annoyed by the moderators/admins and so they split off and ACF was created.

ACF ran for many years until the 'benevolent dictator' (who occasionally posts on here) that ran it banned smileys (yes, at times, it is was of those graphics heavy forums with some people listing every bike they've ever owned/etc in a big signature), then started banning some people, and then closed the entire thing.

Some ex-ACFers then created yacf (named in a geek joke style). It hasn't disappeared up its arse (yet).

yet another c***ing forum

n,t,u may be replaced with c,l,y if you wish

I've always had it down as the your a cunt forum.