American football

Thanks! Added to my watch later list.

Now the firing/hiring season is over, time to look at my semi annual state of the Black NFL Head Coach.

New Hires
Raheem Morris - Falcons
Antonio Pierce - Raiders
Jerod Mayo - Patriots
Dave Canales - Panthers

Still There
DeMeco Ryans - Texans
Todd Bowles - Buccaneers
Mike Tomlin - Steelers

Not Black, but Not White either
Mike McDaniels - Dolphins
Robert Saleh - Jets

Some improvement on the hiring front and I'm really hoping Raheem Morris follows in DeMeco Ryans footsteps and rapidly improves the Falcons, as winning is the only way to secure that coaching position. Todd Bowles getting the Buccaneers into the playoffs should give him another season or two, when it was looking rocky after Brady's retirement.
I'm hoping Pierce gets his co-ordinators right, not liking the look of them hiring either Kliff Kingsbury or Luke Getsy (current front runner and ex bears OC) for OC, as if he keeps the Raiders competitive he could actually get enough rope and patience from Davis to be in it long term, and then the chance to rebuild that roster (also not super high on Telesco as the new GM)
Also pray for Saleh, after that warts and all piece came out about the Jets implosion after Rodgers went down, if they don't get the playoffs next season, I fear he could be gone..

edit:

After only have 1 black HC at the end of 22 (Mike Tomlin raise your hand), we're now upto 6 which should realistically be the new baseline..

Edit/Edit:
added Dave Canales who is Mexican American to the New Hires

Mike McDaniel is half Black and Robert Saleh is of Lebanese origin.

But your point stands.

I know McDaniel identifies as black, and I'm doing him a bit of a disservice putting him in that category alongside Saleh, which Canales in all honesty should be in as well.
But trying to make some distinction between the african american ranks and those who may have been cut a bit more slack for not being as black, if that makes any sense at all..
Anyway all for more ethnicities getting the big chair, and hoping that this cycle of hirings doesn't dent the confidence or chances of some of the up and coming OC's and DC's of colour out there..

So I have a favour to ask the hivemid...

I am learning some new tech and have built something with data around NFL coaching trees. I find most representations of coaching trees to be a bit bland and non-informative.

I have built this to be really flexible and I plan on adding in a ton of other information (team records, ranking, etc.)

But for now I basically have every coach at every position for every team from 1920-2023.

So...what would you like to know about coaching relationships? I am trying to work out some intelligent ways to query all of this to get some actual insights.

Thinking of @cornelius_blackfoot 's recent posts and tracking the % of minority staff members over time. Or tracking what franchises develop the most head coaches, etc.

Any suggestions would be welcome.

Isn’t the obvious one the Belicheck tree? And proving that he’s a chancer that only succeeded because of Brady 🙂

On the list! Although I think that has been done to death and 6 rings is 6 rings.

I'd like to know what's the average time (seasons) it takes for white coaches (from starting coaching in the NFL) to get head coaching jobs vs black coaches.
I may have some more questions, but currently can't think of them.

I don't have immediate access to minority status data. So I would need a lot of info and I am not sure even if that information exists anywhere or could even be compiled.

I mean, Jim Thorpe (1920 head coach and one of the most remarkable athletes of the 20th century) was Native American. So even a blanket - "everyone before 1965 was white" would not be entirely accurate. But focused on the post AFL/NFL merger would be more attainable.

There are minority coaching fellowships though. It would be interesting to track to see if those have ever translated into NFL careers.

Yeah, can see it might be difficult. See what you can do (if anything), if other questions comes up that's easier to answer with the data you have at hand, jump on them...

On a side note, really interested to see where Eric Bienemy ends up, if anywhere? Feels like his time in Washington has taken him further away from getting a HC job, rather than closer, through what seems like no fault of his..

I’d be interested to see to what degree people actually are part of their accepted tree - and the relationship between the head (root?) of their tree vs other coaches they have been on a staff with. i.e how many/what proportion of games did, say, McVay play under Shanahan vs on the same staff as McDaniels, vs under a/each Gruden etc

through what seems like no fault of his..

if not his then whose?

Yeah. This is mostly driving my thinking around this. The idea of a "tree" is inherently hierarchical whereas the spread of ideas in a copycat league is much more through diffusion. I think my approach might yield some interesting insights

if not his then whose?

Gotta agree with some of this. Not sure his approach works for all organisations and cultures.

Given the huge prevalence of head coaches under 40, we are seeing the biggest cultural shift in coaching styles the league has probably ever seen. There may be some guys that just remain coordinators.

Vic Fangio and every ex-Patriot coordinator are good examples of why being a good coordinator does not guarantee success as a HC. Look at the coordinators who turned down HC roles this year - Slowik and Johnson - simply because they do not feel ready.

Also teams look at the Eagles and think, fuck it, pay the coordinators more to keep them around because they are as important as the head coach.

New owner, wants his own hires in. From what I could see bienemy did a decent job calling plays for Sam Howell and that offense, before Howell got trigger happy, but I’ll defer to those who study that sort of thing more. As an OC, you can do more with less, put your qb in positions to win and then they may not be capable/experienced enough to do what is required. Howell looked good for the first half of the season, then did not. How much of Howell’s regression was to do with Bienemy’s play calls, his own lack of experience/consistency or the quality of the rest of the offense is up for debate.

As @Aroogah states maybe his personality/coaching style doesn’t work for all organisations,but the majority of players play hard for him, defend his way of working, and feel they improved with him as their coach, whether that’s enough to get him a HC gig, or currently even a Co-ordination gig is up for grabs.

Of course - but Josh Harris isn't the reason that Bienemy is less attractive as a HC now than on leaving KC.

I'm a Washington fan so I have my own opinions about Howell, and the fall off in the second half of the season was something which happened to the entire team, so as you say, is really tough to gauge in a vacuum, and 6 people will probably have half a dozen opinions over whos at 'fault'.

I skew more towards EB being responsible for not realising he didn't have Patrick Mahomes any more - ultimately if your OC can't get the most out of a young/rookie QB then they are in a tough spot.

It's really hard to discern why someone who led (or close to it) the league in a number of (albeit volume based) metrics through the front end of the season followed it with such a precipitous fall off. I don't think it is EBs fault but I do think it is on the OC to find a way to cope/steady the ship, which EB didn't - even if you accept other factors at play. Clearly there is talent there somewhere with Howell, which wasn't fully realised.

This ties in really nicely with the coaching tree discussion - how do you separate Bienemy the OC from Mahomes before this season? Their successes are inextricably linked, but what VAR (if you will) was Bienemy doing, and what was just a magical offence. If you looked at the front of Washington's season you'd say - more of the same, but then...

You make good points. But I think it’s hard for EB as he was bashed for not calling plays in KC and now is hit for the quality of his play calling in Washington, when there’s so much variance in the play he got from Howell. I was a believer in Howell early doors but the drop off the second half of the season, made the fact that Rivera and the Washington brain trust didn’t go get Lamar almost inexcusable.

Anyway I’m biased as I want every black coach to get the job regardless of whether media/fan opinion thinks they are good or not..

Relevant snippet in this about owners complaining about 49ers compensatory picks… insane.

Saw that. A bit rich TBH. Few teams do a good job of bringing in and nurturing talent off the field. Why moan at the 49ers,? Instead look at why they are so good, on and off the field, and try and emulate that.

"owners have complained to the league office about the sheer number of compensatory picks the 49ers have received for serving as a pipeline for coaches and executives of color. "

WTAF!

Maybe if other teams as @Aroogah mentions nurtured more talent off the field, in their coaching ranks and the executive suites, they would get as many compensatory picks.
Despite how much I've grown to dislike this team (have special special memories of loving Jerry Rice and Montana and Young growing up to offset that) shanahan does a good job of having a diverse coaching staff, see here..
https://www.49ers.com/team/coaches-roster/

and judging by some of the surnames in their front office staff, they're doing a decent job back there as well..
https://www.49ers.com/team/front-office-roster/

I like Seth Wickersham's work, but Shanahan comes out looking like a bit of a dick in this piece, despite the overcoming adversity throughline.

Andre Johnson to the HOF
Stroud OROTY
Anderson DROTY
A nice rebuttal to the talking head draftniks who flayed us for moving up to 3rd overall pick.

Demeco getting robbed of COTY by one first place vote and losing to the guy he outcoached in the playoffs. In fairness Stefanski worked miracles with no QBs to even be there.

What a great, great end to the year. Great season.

We'll be expected to be good next year and have a ton on cap space. Let's not fuck it up by signing expensive over the hill vets in the off season.

Do you think your Texans, will be looking at how Detroit built their roster? Does Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell's decisions on draft choices - picking ready now young players at positions of need, and not to chasing expensive ageing free agent signings provide a template for you guys on how to take the next step, and how to deal with the external expectation from the media/hot take talking heads nation?
Texans did in a season what it took Detroit 3 to do, would have been two if they hadn't had that 1-6 start, get to the playoffs and show how competitive they are with a roster full of young up and coming players, and a few all pros in the making..

Lots of Texans chat around signing Saquon and Mike Evans (Galveston Ball High School) which is insanity. We are more than 2 pieces away from going deeper in the playoffs and that assumes we retain the same large group of players that just became Free Agents.

Volunteers, not Hostages as Tomlin says.

But also no Mercenaries.

I would rather build around draftees and smart FA signings.

But unlike most people on t'Internet, I am aware I am not the GM. The last couple of years has taught me to trust the process. Our most recent draft classes (away from Stroud and Anderson) is a vindication of the process.

yeah it's kinda where the Raiders went wrong with McDaniels/Ziegler and that disconnect between the roster you have, where you finished in the standings, and thinking that either the coaching or the team is better than they actually are and going all in on winning now, rather than honestly assessing where you are and building a roster accordingly.
Pretty sure DeMeco doesn't think you're two FA signings away from being long term competitive.

Anyone else watching? Never count Mahomes out but there was only one team in the first half.