That Starmer fella...

Labour will win at least 20 seats in Scotland, probably more. Majority of 260 if Keith and Sue (too) don't fuck it up.

lib dem leaflet?

Can't be there's no bar chart.

Private eye

Tories suffer two by-election defeats with big swings to Labour

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68277176

Its bizarre that this is just baked in now, nothing to see here move on, Labour in crisis etc.

The only real interest is that reform have this time matched, ish there polling performance at around 10%

These are revealing

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That Starmer fella keeps winning elections.

Handy that for a politician.

Is that really the case or is the Rishi fella just really good at losing?

The only real interest is that reform have this time matched, ish there polling performance at around 10%

I can only see this pushing the Tories further to the right.

What does that even mean in 2024? Culture war grift, statist clientelism and solipsistic gnomism, or a red trousered claret fueled long walk home after driving the Landie into a ditch after village evensong.

That's how they'll spin it. Or gaslight the public into thinking Labour didn't mean to win, and that's proof they shouldn't be in charge

What does that even mean in 2024?

This is an excellent question that needs exploring.

My sense is the general UK public don't really buy into the culture war narrative. And definitely not in the way the US has.

Take something like trans rights - while there may be a range of views on policy specifics like sports, ages, etc. the general view is let people be who they want to be.

You're seeing a jockeying for the future of the Conservatives - Liz Trusses popular (lol) conservativism, trad Conservativism, etc.

Is that really the case or is the Rishi fella just really good at losing?

I think it's both, but I'd always rather a lucky general than a good one. Theresa May wasn't exactly setting the world on fire with her charisma and ability but we still managed to trail her for most of her premiership.

I think the real thing that's changed is that we as a society have undergone a shift. We've realised, for the most part, that political parties based on the idea of making things worse for people we don't like improve our lives much less than parties based on the idea of making things better for everyone. It's one of those epochal shifts.

I was there in 1997, first election I could vote in. The country feels the same. We're sick of it. We may not be excited about Starmer the way some of us were about Blair, but we are actively scared of / hostile to Sunak and his pals, and as a country we are just tired and bored and exhausted by it.

This is very UK centric. An outlier in the general trend to righty

Increasingly desperate anti-immigration, anti-trans, anti-woke, anti-disadvantaged, anti-whatever they can think of stuff I reckon.

They're not going to be able to do anything about the big issues like cost of living (whether due to practical or ideological reasons) so they've convinced themselves this is the way to go and if they're losing votes to reform they have to do it harder

We've realised, for the most part, that political parties based on the idea of making things worse for people we don't like don't improve our lives much less than parties based on the idea of making things better for everyone.

I don't think I understand this, could you please explain?

In my completely unscientific way think that most people are, "Live and Let Live" so other than bits of the internet or to a few activists there's not much cut through;pay rises, prices, taxes, housing, schools access to healthcare matter much more to the average Jo. If the Royal Marines are learning Pro Nounes, so what?

I know they are only By Elections a few months away from a General Election. Labour are doing it, they are winning in Tory heartlands, often, not a one off, not the Lib Dem, not a good showing and heading in the right(yeah I know) direction but turning Poll results into actual vote. Actually WINNING! After a shit week too!

This makes me happy!

Well (and this goes to @hurricane_run's point too) in the UK our leaders since Cameron have focussed on making things worse for ideological enemies - 'benefit scroungers', immigrants, asylum seekers, the EU, people on long term sick, remoaners, metropolitan liberal elites, the national trust, etc.

What these kinds of politicians offer is not a positive offer: "we will make your life better". It's it's a negative offer: "we will punish the people you don't like". For leaders like Trump and Johnson, that comes with a side order of 'especially if you let me get away with pursuing my own grim personal agenda in the meantime' but that's not a necessary component.

But the key bit is that because we were so early doors on a lot of this right wing flood the zone culture war shit, I think we've collectively begun to realise that while it might be an entertaining diversion to have a two minute hate when you're comfortable, it's scant consolation when you can't get a doctors appointment, your kids can't afford their mortgage if they're lucky enough to have one, and your elderly parents are dying in a drafty NHS corridor. I wonder if the US would be considering giving Trump another term if he'd managed to win another one the first time and presided over the kind of recession we've ended up with.

I wouldn't say we'd woken up and smelt the coffee. But there does seem to be a bit of a feeling in the air that the people who spearheaded this kind of stuff and seemed to have some momentum a few years ago, don't really anymore. They have a hardcore following that's getting harder, but it's also shrinking - there's no novelty in it, it's just Reform supporting swivel eyed pub bores who'll never be satisfied with any concession.

Shame we had to leave the EU to realise it tho.

We've realised, for the most part, that political parties based on the idea of making things worse for people we don't like don't improve our lives much less than parties based on the idea of making things better for everyone.

I don't think I understand this, could you please explain?

I think the second "don't" is probably erroneous - hangover from changing draft between "don't improve our lives" and "improve our lives much less" if I had to guess.

you're right! Completely missed that. i'll edit.

Not that you can trust a word coming out his mouth but Farage on the radio earlier saying they did a pact with the conservatives to stand down running in many constituencies in 2019 to get Boris in to get Brexit done and the conservatives have let them down, so this time around they will do no deals and field as many candidates as they can and try to send a message to the conservatives that the public need more on immigration, less net zero, less benefits etc. Be good for labour if that is the case.

You are right, can't trust him at all, but everyone can see the writing on the wall this time round. What's the point of standing aside if the Tories still end up losing.

Richard Tice actually suggested the Tories should stand aside and let Reform take on Labour, which I think shows where they are aiming.

Johnson and Farage duplicitous?

Huge if true