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Presumably not much to Ukraine, but that's what Putin wants isn't it? To avoid NATO encroaching on 'his patch'

Fuck me, that’s tone deaf at very best

Like @sumo said, Putin has wanted NATO to confirm Ukraine would never be allowed join from the start of all of this. Any grip he could possibly have would effectively disappear if Ukraine was a full NATO member.

Given there is no route to Ukraine's NATO membership that wouldn't involve Russia invading first, it seems like an obvious concession.

Seems like an obvious route out, but it would implicitly acknowledge that Ukraine cannot do anything as a sovereign nation that Russia doesn’t approve of. Next time Ukraine wants to sign a free trade agreement with the EU, Putin will start dusting off his T-72s again.

I guess unfortunately that is the de facto position? Recognising the position to avoid war seems reasonable.

I freely admit I know little about the situation, but I hope it would also creates time and space to try and develop a plan for Ukraine that can provide peace, democracy and prosperity. And I guess that plan would need to involve both the EU and Russia.

Thinking that this is purely about NATO is to miss the economic angle- Putin can’t have a European state bordering Russia that is outperforming Russia economically, most especially a state that many Russians consider to be made of other Russians.

And no amount of sacrificing Ukraine’s ability to choose its own fate is going to “fix” that unless it’s turned into a version of Belarus.

Norway and Finland have a border with Russia....

Nah, but I get what you are saying. But your argument would be more precise if you think of it as a post-Soviet state that is outperforming Russia economically. But even that framing would highlight how the Baltics are doing pretty well after the break up.

And here I thought my MP was just a party lacky

https://www.google.com/amp/s/inews.co.uk/news/politics/woke-psychodrama-threatens-western-values-tory-chairman-oliver-dowden-tells-pro-trump-think-tank-1460913/amp

Recognising the position to avoid war seems reasonable.

Can’t imagine Ukrainians see it that way, or Poland, the Baltic states and Finland.

Norway and Finland have a border with Russia....

Nah, but I get what you are saying. But your argument would be more precise if you think of it as a post-Soviet state that is outperforming Russia economically. But even that framing would highlight how the Baltics are doing pretty well after the break up.

Sure - agree with everything you say. A quick post on my phone whilst cooking dinner was not a great way of articulating that thought.

Gary Kasparov gets it.

Do you mean outperform economically in the future by becoming more integrated in to Europe - because it is doing far worse than Russia at the moment?
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-68-putins-challenge-to#:~:text=What%20makes%20Ukraine,majority%20in%20Ukraine.

I think your argument about the supposed kinship hits the nail on the head though. That a bunch of almost-Russians can get on with life perfectly well without the oversight of the Kremlin must seem like a genuine existential threat.

If you read Will's link you will see that Ukraine has done far worse than Russia since 1990, and the weakness of Ukrainian growth and ineffectiveness of Ukrainian politics is what enables Putin's position vis-a-vis Ukraine. I don't really see an analysis that supports an argument that Putin wants to invade in case Ukraine out performs Russia economically.

To quote the article:

What makes Ukraine into the object of Russian power is not just its geography, but the division of its politics, the factional quality of its elite and its economic failure.

On @rodan s point, at present there aren't really any effective deterrents other than the threat of military counter action. Who is willing to take that?

Perhaps Gavin Williamson was right.

Just putting up my hands to say I have no idea what the solution is, just interested to talk about it and learn about it. I hope they avoid war.

I don't think the EU is interested in a prosperous Ukraine in the near future. As far as I remember from the time around the Maidan protests it was said the big prize in the Ukraine for the west is the farm land and that seems to be going ahead as planned. Once a country is under the control of the IMF it will not get out that quickly.

Ukraine has officially ended a 20-year moratorium on the sale of farmland, hoping to unleash productivity and investment in the agricultural sector.

The land market opened on July 1, more than a year after Ukrainian lawmakers passed a law lifting the ban on sales, as required to receive a loan from the International Monetary Fund.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-agriculture-farmland-economy-/31336984.html

I’m not sure there is much that can or should be done by NATO to deter Russia militarily, but we definitely shouldn’t just hand Putin what he wants - he’ll only be back for more, all across Eastern Europe. I don’t think Ukraine should be admitted to NATO, but that definitely shouldn’t be offered in appeasement just now.

Invasion isn’t a good outcome for Putin either. The best outcome all round is that he deescalates, and persuades himself that having held everyone’s attention for a few weeks is enough of a win.

Putin can’t have a European state bordering Russia that is outperforming Russia economically

Surprising stat of the week : California's GDP, at 2.448 trillion dollars is 80% larger that Russia's GDP, at 1.3 trillion dollars.

Ukraine's GDP is 156 billion dollars. I imagine your comment about out performing is related to growth and per capita earnings?

I don’t think they are there yet by a long chalk, but what the accession agreement bound them to in terms of reform, what the population wants, and continuing integration into the EU market pulls them away from Russia, the Oligarch/state enterprise model and promises them Poland as a goal.

If only Gavin was in charge, this would be sorted before breakfast.

I don’t think Ukraine should be admitted to NATO, but that definitely shouldn’t be offered in appeasement just now.

+1

I heard a theory that seems plausible. After Kremlin poisoned Navalny the United Statesians threatened to kick Russia out of the SWIFT system, arguably the strongest non-violent reaction they can come up with. But now, with troops on the border, the SWIFT threat has shifted to become the thing that will happen if they invade Ukraine. Meaning as long as Russia doesn't invade they have in effect walked away from the poison incident scot free.

Johnson still saying doesn’t think he’s done anything wrong 🤦🏼‍♂️