Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

On going I believe.

Ongoing near me in Lambeth.

The viespeuken! ;)

Glad to see some people made no effort the last 18 months and don't intend to start now: lol :D

@lynx @Eseman - thanks. I got my second in the local Asda this morning (Asda-Zeneca!)

So now the 19th of July reopening date is "dates not data" and won't shift... Em, we are nearly in July.

UK cases are going exponential at the moment.. deaths and hospitalisation going up as well.

It seems premature to me, it may all be ok in a few weeks as vaccination rate us picking back up. Or not...

I don't see deaths going up

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You just posted a graph showing that they are.

Did they? Deaths are literally down today on the seven day average. And the numbers are so low that it'll be hard to distinguish noise from anything else anyway.

There's no guarantee they won't go up again, but there is not really clear evidence they are going up. And it is very, very, good news if they continue to stay flat while cases go up.

Did they?

Am I the only person that can see the bottom graph?

Yes it looks like there are more instances where there are three pixels instead of two stacked if you zoom in. But you know that this needs to be viewed in tandem with cases. So either you're being pedantic for internet points or trying to make a point I don't get.

OP states deaths are not rising - to support this, they add a graph showing that daily deaths have doubled in the last month. And pointing that out is internet pedantry. Right.

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Bollocks, wife's tested positive, she was isolating after seeing a friend last week who then tested positive, she feels rubbish but isn't very good at being ill, means I can't go get the £20 beer money I've got at work for football beers tomorrow.

Oof. Bad luck. Hope it's a mild case.

This shower of a Government are basically testing a herd immunity strategy on the youth of the country.

Sucky, bud. Also hoping it's a quick and easy one.

I am known for being quick and easy.

Was a tiny rise on the guardian this morning.

But looks like that was just a bit of noise.

I'm still not so positive about the increase...

I guess the message is: Few deaths it will be fine! But long Covid and hospital for younger people will still happen.

I get you can't lockdown forever etc etc... Just don't like the complete lack of caution in the message.

Aw :(

Hope she won't be too badly ill from it.

Erk, hope all ok asap.

We both had first dose Pfizer about 6 weeks ago so hoping I'm mega immune by now, she tends to pick up every cold knocking about and feel bad with them whereas I usually feel a bit off for a day if I even get it. The person she got it off was double jabbed as nurse, but had recently had a treatment that affects her immune system.

Hope she recovers soon!

All good thank you!

And thanks to everyone else.

8 days of fever but now it's broke. I'm feeling much better.

I don't see deaths going up

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

7 day total of deaths up 64.9% on the 7 days previous. They are going up. (Monday's death toll is always low.)

As I said a few days ago (5 days ago: https://www.lfgss.com/comments/16057160/), if they're going up 50% every 7 days (which is still exponential growth) they should be somewhere around 200 in the last 7 days by ~6th July.

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50% every 7 days is a daily growth factor of 1.06, so that gives a doubling rate of about 12 days.

1.5^(12/7)=2.004 (3dp)

Caveat the "Deaths within 28 days of positive test" metric and the high sensitivity of such low numbers but, as I said in the earlier post, we'll have a bit more confidence in the figures by ~6th July.

Personally I'm starting to wonder if July 19th won't need to be delayed. I think the Government are banking on the numbers still being quite low (despite undergoing exponential growth) and opening up regardless.

Not sure if people really understand what "being double jabbed is 95% effective against a new variant" actually means. I know it's not binary effective/ineffective (and this is a gross simplification) but 5% of 50mm adults double jabbed is still a lot of people (2.5mm) and if 1% (25,000) of those require hospitalisation then the NHS is in for a really big shitty 3rd wave.

Marr had a piece recently about his recent serious Covid infection despite being double jabbed: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57640550