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Also, the number of people hospitalised seems to have at the very least stagnated in the London area. If that is true, making the lockdown stricter would not seem indicated.
SwissChap-
Also, the number of people hospitalised seems to have at the very least stagnated in the London area. If that is true, making the lockdown stricter would not seem indicated.
My prediction is that as the news of stagnation grows (and the Government wait for a few more days data to ensure that the stagnation isn't a blip due to Easter holidays) people will go out more and socialise more thinking that the worst of it is over and the light at the end of the tunnel is visible.
This will lead, after a couple of weeks, to a significant increase in cases in a couple of weeks despite the lockdown not being officially lifted/modified and the Government left in a tricky position on how to react. Reiterating the same old message won't work as people will have already started to ignore it and/or decide it doesn't really apply to them. So their choices would be to:-
a) lift the restrictions (and reignite the flame and, when the history books are written the choices of the Government's actions will be looked upon very unfavourably amongst the >100,000 deaths [we're already 1/5 of the way there])
b) impose stricter restrictions in order to get us back to where we should really be right now.
c) some other fuckwittery I can't even begin to think ofWho knows. Maybe they'll do (a), then throw Hancock and Witty/Vallance under the bus, and then secretly congratulate themselves on saving the UK economy (at the expense of hundreds of thousands of people).
The inbuilt hysteresis is a huge problem, that and the majority of the UK population being self-centered gibbering fucknuggets of the first order.
Greenbank
I’m surprised to hear people still suggesting there’s going to be a further lock down. Have you seen the front page of the mail and the times this morning. “Schools open in 3 weeks” and “Get Britain moving again!” As much as the government says it’s being lead by the experts (lol) it’s being lead by the mood of the great unwashed, and the great unwashed are bored and want to get back to normal.
A Month ago everybody was panic buying bog roll and pasta and screaming for the lockdown now they want to get back to normal. perhaps that mood could change, a couple of 1000 plus deaths a day could do that, but right now the government want to keep the people on side and, the people want to get back to normal ish.
We all know people in general are idiots, see Brexit etc, but right now we have a government thats happy to give the people what they want, weather its good for them or not.
We’re probably due an update on the @Stonehedge All cycling to be banned rolling prediction right a about now too aren’t we.