Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

It's odd how cavalier people are being with their health. Just because the average 30 year old is going to be ok it doesn't mean you will.

Avoid the fuck out of this and if you get it hope it spares you.

Trudeau’s wife has tested positive.

Poor advice. Children at school are not a high-risk category.

The staffs, however, may be.

China has had it for 3 months now, and 3100 odd deaths in China.

It’s been in Italy for what, a month now, with 1000 deaths.

Why will the U.K. have up to 497,000 more deaths?

Seems like quite the jump...

Id avoid watching his vlog for those who only relied on captioning, which that person didn’t add.

Why will the U.K. have up to 497,000 more deaths?

Speaking of long term perhaps? I.e. end of the year estimate.

In the actual press conference the CMO basically said that 80% is the absolute worst case scenario that their modelling has predicted as possible but it's a meaningless figure because it's too early doors to have even a general inclination how things will pan out.

But he did confirm that 80% is the absolute worst case scenario that they have in their minds.

It came up because he was asked whether he agreed with Germany's estimate of 70%. He replied that their perfect storm figure was actually 80 but these are utterly meaningless figures so early on.

It's absolute worst infection(80%) numbers with best mortality (1%).

They completely locked down China, which won't happen here.

We might not - that's very much worst case.

China might not be completely honest about their numbers.
China will probably have a second wave once restrictions on Hubei are lifted.
Italy's deaths are going up exponentially still.

But no-one really knows how bad its going to be.

Article in the Chinese press today saying that China identified first 250 cases in November.

We've closed our Milan office but all the others remain open (incl HK, Singapore and Tokyo). We had a bunch of people attend a tech conference, QCon about a week ago. Apparently a couple of people attending (not our lot) tested positive on weds so we sent our QCon attendees home although they'd obviously been back in the office for a week.
Yesterday they announced that anyone can work from home without needing permission from their manager.
Our share price is down 30% over the last month.

Also the video put out by the Vietnam health authority is very catchy:
https://youtu.be/V9YirNgAzXI

Anyone up for some lunchtime riding next week? Weather looks nice.

The president of Brazil has tested positive.

He had dinner on Saturday with the president of the USA.

Fingers crossed.

Yeah, I definitely do not want to end up in hospital in the middle of a pandemic.

Yeah fair enough.

Is anyone else also getting the annual beginning of hayfever? This time of year, I always wake up with a slight shortness of breath and a tickly cough. That will get progressively worse, such that on high pollen days I will wake up being close to completely unable to breathe.

False positive fun times ahead.

and the first fatalities didn’t get reported until mid January right. You do the math.

China numbers are not to be the trusted.

The population of Hubei is similar to that of Italy however a third smaller in size. I’d hate to think of the actual numbers there.

I've had a low grade runny nose and sore throat in the mornings for about three weeks, entirely consistent with my cat fur allergy and hayfever.

Same, but since January.

I'm self isolating, but just to get me out of doing any childcare.

Stay home for a week, fully paid obvs - 15c is perfect weather for a long ride too!

I need to buy a thermometer.

Is it just the UK doing f all? Even the US has banned sports events

It’s all about delaying the sombrero effect apparently.

Football will be called off today I imagine.

For those interested in how the figures stated by our CMO were arrived at:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30144-4/fulltext

For those interested in the paediatric cases:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2003717

Conjecture:
This highlights some interesting case-identification/data-gathering errors in the overall stats it is gathered from (and suggests that we may be seeing a combination of C19 and other infections in the data-set- and looking for C19).

[

Among the 366 children, the most frequently detected pathogens were
influenza A virus (in 23 patients [6.3%]) and influenza B virus (in 20
[5.5%]). SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, was detected in 6
patients (1.6%).

From memory this is about the date China added detection based on CT and radiological evidence
]

This is the WHO sit-rep- updated daily:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/
(please note the definitions: https://www.who.int/publications-detail/global-surveillance-for-human-infection-with-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov) )

I would highly urge you to read as much primary source as possible.

Children are always an at-risk group in respiratory illnesses.

We are looking at a manageable pandemic. Effects will be widespread, and you will know someone who has been directly affected.
The UK government's approach is different to how I anticipated it would be, but as pointed out in the first paper- it is difficult to see how the spread could have been more expediently curtailed given the efflux out of Hubei when travel restrictions were announced. This pattern undoubtedly repeats itself throughout countries with similar restrictions
. It is therefore a difficult political choice as to attempt to shut down a population used to freedoms, or to assume inevitable widespread disease load and educate the public to recognise the cases that need medical attention- with the intention of reducing health-care load, and attempting to stabilise the fallout from an economic standpoint.