EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

But it a 52% majority sufficient, for the purposes of an advisory referendum, for the member states of the EU to infer a mandate and enact Article 50, shortcutting the UK's implied constitutional process?

Comparing a referendum of this type to a general (or other) election (particularly our own FPTP-style elections) looks like apples and oranges.

Is there anyone left in the Shadow cabinet part from Tom Watson and Diane Abbott? There can be no way for Corbyn to hang on shirley.

Shirley's gone too.

Oh piss off.

Touche good sir, I have no retort to such well reasoned and thoughtful conjecture.

There's a winny the poo meme about forgiveness and friends between brexit / bremain voters going around.

Not there yet unfortunately.

waka waka waka

remembers that article where someone did spectral analysis of apples and oranges. JUST FOR THE LOLZ.

I've seen that. "let's get pissed"

Statement from HoP on EU Referendum due at 3.30pm...

more...................

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I'm wondering:

• will the Tory election expenses scandal come home to roost any time soon?

• how will UKIP do if we have a general election soon?

As long as UKIP are associated with Britain First, they'll never really be taken seriously.

I'm mostly pissed OFF now.

Hopefully the future destroyed predictions are wrong. Could be. Perhaps too pessimistic.

I'm fucked off with people voting for things its clear they won't get (a normal thing in elections obv.) but having done irrevocable damage with it.

Expect more backpedaling and if pessimism predictions are right regret (which shows personal insight) or more denial in a few years. It's human to err, it's human to dig your heels in, it's human to be stupid but I'm just not there yet.

Seeing someone with a child with asd fall for the immigrantion restriction promise they already backpedaled on does not make my day. What benefits will they have when older from the brexit era? As the nhs promise is from brexit ones that give you a destroyed nhs too.

All this cos some arseholes had a power struggle. It's ok to fuck yourself up (free country) but fucking up others with it, less so. End of rant 😠

In the end we are all now in a leaky boat fighting over who hit the rock first won't help. But just ... not there yet. Still in the "you idiot you were told there were cliffs in that mist bank!!!" stage.

Anyways ❤ for this thread

A new Guardian/ICM poll released. Polling took place after the referendum result and initial financial shock and before the complete shadow cabinet implosion - Tory lead up two points to four percent. That makes sense.

linky link?

I'm wondering where they've nabbed them from. UKIP?

It suggests a small Brexit boost for the Tories, who are on 36%, up two from the last ICM online survey reported in the Guardian a fortnight ago. Labour, meanwhile, slip back one from 33% to 32%. Ukip climbs one point, to 15%, while the pro-European Liberal Democrats slip back two to 7%. The SNP, which campaigned successfully for the strong remain vote in Scotland, climbs one to 5%. The Greens are unchanged on 5%, Plaid Cymru unchanged on 1%.

From the Guardian Brexit live blog. The ICM website isn't letting me play at the moment.

All margin of error stuff except SNP.

I just read a rumour that Cameron will soon announce No to the petition and No to a referendum for Scotland independent. And the the new Tory leader will be on within the 2nd September.

source?

I'm afraid that needs to be kept secret for now, we will soon enough to know if it's true.

Kept secret? It's on the Independent online. It's not a rumour, it's his spokesperson on the record.

are you, in fact, david cameron?

According to HuffPost Cameron's refusing to invoke it because he knows when Boris (presumably) does, he'll be the one who gets the blame for the shipwreck that follows. Thus pyrrhic victory or something.