The fall of the Tory party

I'd argue that because the Conservatives offer fuck all to young people, and actively piss them off, that is the major factor in them not wanting to vote for them.

I'd argue they were never going to vote for anyone, and at the very least attempting to engage with them means a slightly increased youth vote, 18-24 & 25-34 had an increased turnout in 2017 & 19, unfortunately boomers went from high to higher in 2017 too, and everyone except the younger lot dipped in 2019, having more under 35s (fuck I'm old now) involved is a good thing, although it obviously wasn't enough and turnout is still way lower than the older lots and I reckon it'll dip again when we finally get to oust these arseholes.

That was it

The papers which only old people read, stirring up a load of shit that only old people would believe/care about drives them to vote more and coincidentally they have the most free time to go and vote. Younger people just aren't as engaged with politics but the worse the Torys make the country the more people will realise they need to be less apathetic.

Greens and independents.

I would posit that what Heathrow needs is less planes rather than a 3rd runway.

As an engineer I look for less rather than adding a thing.

A third runway wouldn't solve shit youd just have more planes sitting burning fuel due to capitalism.

So a new Tory government then, right

👌

I can’t see why the new are saying it’s a surprise mp’s are defecting. Going from the party in govenerment to the new party in government seems like a no brainer

They're all going to defect and give Labour a nice blue new logo and maybe a new name

Read and enjoy:

https://www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk/p/freefall

Good piece

Eventually we can merge this and Starmer thread.

Edit: Joxley explains it better in the blog post linked by @andyp

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/10/more-tory-mps-considering-defection-to-labour-wes-streeting

Just to even things up, can you defect to them please, Wes?

Once that generation passes on and so does their wealth will the younger generation look to protect it from the taxman and vote more conservative or will labour just have to shift more centrist every election cycle?

Hmm, this graph continuing this trend would lead to a GE call that was out of their hands (loss of a confidence vote in the current Government)...

(attached screenshot as hotlinking from Grauniad was just a raw graph with no text...)

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The major factor in how that plays out it how the boomer windfall is split among society X voting boundaries.

Extreme egs to illustrate:

• 1% of young get boomer windfall distributed evenly
  
• 50% of young get boomer windfall distributed over swing seats/key seats
  

The better economic news of the last few days also helps the Conservatives to make their planned argument - that the country has turned a corner, and that Labour would put that at risk. And of course the Conservatives are looking for any Labour vulnerabilities to push.

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:)

ah, good old tory spokesperson, laura kuenssberg

Yeah nah, makes sense - it's his to lose.

Inversely, not much can go wrong for the Tories; it's all gone wrong already.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/13/coaxing-cats-crime-pet-abduction-bill/#:~:text=Anyone%20who%20attempts%20to%20%E2%80%9Cinduce,prison%2C%20a%20fine%20or%20both.

Well fuck me with a chainsaw. Tory legislation that actually improves something.

The problem with Laura K's analysis is not that she's a Tory it's that it's just bad.

https://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3ksad2mhyrc2q

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/four-tory-mps-who-made-32793408?

Four Tory MPs who made huge £6m selling taxpayer-funded 2nd homes won't say whether they paid tax
The Tories were accused of ­hypocrisy after pushing for police to probe deputy Labour leader Ms Angela Rayner over a £48,000 profit she made selling a former council house before she became an MP and an alleged capital gains tax bill of a mere £1,500