Russian invasion of Ukraine

I dont think anyone really believes thats what putin thinks but rather that this type of rethoric is what he thinks will work persuading the population that this war is a necessary act.

Chasing nazis sounds good to russians and well to most ppl in the world tbh.

Putin may be a lot of things but he is not dumb enough to surround himself with military personal that bring thousands of tanks but forgot to bring the fuel.

Russia’s defence budget is about the same as ours, as doubt many of their 800,000 troops are effective at any one time.

Putin may be a lot of things but he is not dumb enough to surround himself with military personal that brings thousands of tanks but forgot the fuel.

Are we sure about this? That televised meeting where all the national security leaders were terrified of them and he humiliated them in front of the nation suggests he has surrounded himself with yes men. Are his advisors telling him anything other than what he wants to hear? You can quickly get detached from reality if you don't have anyone that will tell you the truth.

The easy win didn't happen, but Russia can surely escalate in ways Ukraine can't.

Yes. For one thing, Russia still has a fully functioning economy and supply chain, while Ukraine's is being torn apart. Zelenskyy probably had this very much on his mind when he said "I need ammunition, not a ride". If Putin's resolve holds, time and logistics are on his side.

In the next few days German Panzerfausts will be used against Russian tanks on European soil. This is amazing:

The Russian invasion marks a turning point. It is our duty to support
#Ukraine to the best of our ability in defending against #Putin's invading army. That is why we are supplying 1000 anti-tank weapons and
500 Stinger missiles to our friends in #Ukraine.“

• Chancellor Scholz
  

It's this isn't it. The easy win didn't happen, but Russia can surely escalate in ways Ukraine can't.

TOS-1 with thermobaric warheads are apparently waiting to be deployed. There's no way to fire those near civilian populations without causing huge numbers of casualties apparently.

A tank literally turned and intentionally trampled over a car with a Ukrainian in yesterday.

There seems to be a of a lot of stretching for optimistic narratives going on. Which is understandable given the bleak reality. But I find it hard to fathom how people can latch onto this idea that Russia have miscalculated because they haven’t finished their objective in 2 days. Or that they forgot to bring enough fuel?!

Nothing is for certain i guess but id wager a lot that the reason the tanks have not advanced as far as the west thought they would has little to do with fuel supply at this point in time.

Its not like they thought there would be an abundance of fuel once they got into ukraine either and are / were likely planning to use them tanks for a while even after they had taken control of ukraine. I doubt they thought that just armed forces without vehicles would be sufficient to keep ukrainians in check once they are there.

The easy win didn't happen, but Russia can surely escalate in ways Ukraine can't.

The fact pictures of these :
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497513126924853259
and TOS-1 being deployed to the field suggests the potential for a horrific escalation
https://twitter.com/theragex/status/1497532898412572672

Until now it does seem they have been trying to limit civilian casualties, presumably in the miscalculation they could inflict regime change and people be indifferent and not wanting pictures at home of atrocities. Hard to see how they retreat without losing face or escalate without creating a large insurgency and creating public unrest domestically. Maybe some re-agreement of Minsk 2 and taking the land bridge to Crimea but who knows what Putin's ego will accept.

And I'm out. Not here for the "This is like watching somebody play Call of Duty on Twitch, rockets go bang" stuff. /unsubscribe

Which is where severe economic sanctions will hopefully start to bite.
Russia has oil and resources, but if funding dries out, and soldiers run out, and China are hesitant to help, then it’s Putin’s time and logistics vs the ROTW feeding supplies through South-West Ukraine.

Hopefully thats where its heading. To some kind of consessions by the west to let putin let go without loosing to much face in the process. Lets hope for something like that at least.

Also Russia borders a large number of ‘hostile’ countries, so troops would be spread across a fairly wide area, and would need to in the face of international hostilities.

A little old lady. She was pulled out of the car trampled car and survived. Video was on IG

I can’t disagree about the bleakness of it all. And it’s pretty pointless making conclusions based on videos we’ve seen on social media. However, it’s clear that invading Ukraine does not have support from many Russians and it’s not like there aren’t plenty of examples of a better funded and better equipped invading armies completely underestimating the resolve of the native military.

it’s clear that invading Ukraine does not have support from many Russians

So much disinformation going on online but according to social media, Russian state broadcasters are still just reporting that their is special operations going on in The Donbass

TOS-1 being deployed

Reading about these weapons made my whole body shiver. I hope somebody from close circle puts a bullet in Putin's head before those are getting used. Even if it means sacrifice. It's brotherly nation after all.

I hope somebody from close circle puts a bullet in Putin's head

Surely some people are having these conversations? Does anyone want this war apart from Putin?

By the by, I didn’t know this either until today…

Calling it Kiev is pro-FSU, in line with Russian. We should be calling it Kyiv.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/how-to-pronounce-and-spell-kyiv-kiev-ukraine-and-why-it-matters

Propaganda is strong

And Russia’s state-run news channel on Saturday showed footage of a peaceful day in Kyiv to try to counter the videos of violence spreading on the social network Telegram.
“As you can see, the situation in the cities is calm,” the anchor said. “No explosions, no bombings, unlike what some of the Telegram channels are writing.”

.....

“The propaganda is working very well,” said Anastasia Nikolskaya, a Moscow sociologist. “It’s not that anyone is welcoming the war, but it is being seen as a last-ditch measure that is necessary.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/26/world/europe/russian-economy-ukraine-war.html

That is the thing, who will the sanctions hurt?

Why were there no sanctions when Russia enter Crimea?

Maybe Boris, as he can spin the war in to didn't we do well. Similar to the falklands.

Propaganda is strong

I was thinking about the delusion of Putin - maybe all the news he consumes also come from their own outlets? Just like with this chief guy that was trembling while talking to him and saying what Putin wanted to hear.

I always imagined even the most ruthless dictators would be quite educated and aware of how the world actually looks outside their fenced kingdom but maybe it's not the case here?

I saw RT showing a "live" video of Kiev where nothing happened and life went on as usual. I wonder what goes in their head when they see this on official outlets and all those videos of explosions and dead soldiers in all other outlets.

Why were there no sanctions when Russia enter Crimea?

There were huge sanctions, many of which are still in place since 2014
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War