Russian invasion of Ukraine

Common sense would have it they want the grain deal back on track and not a bag with presents.

There are probably a couple of individuals in country that would really appreciate those presents though.

50,000 tons of grain sounds like a lot but it’s really not much.
I see several trains a day in harvest season carrying more than that.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/30/russia-hurricane-campsite-dead-injured

Ukraine claims they planted them, etc and so on.

Russia’s landmines have made a significant stretch of Ukraine basically unfit for mammalian life. Reports of explosives and traps rigged everywhere along the front, even in Russian corpses and in children’s toys. The generalised resentment caused by this war won’t fade easily or soon.

Mari El is the home of the Mari people, some of whom are as fed up with the Russians as the Ukranians are. I can't find it now, but I remember seeing a short video about a small unit of Mari fighters serving under Ukranian command in the Ukranian battle field. Their leader, a guy in his 50s, spoke to the camera and called for an uprising of non-Russian people's inside Russia.

Wow. Peskov actually told the truth.

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I cleared with Velocio beforehand, but I hope it’s ok with folks in the thread to mention a fundraiser for Ukraine.

A friend has severe Crohn’s and is having his 5th major surgery to shorten his intestinal tract. He’s trying to raise funds for the Red Cross to give medical treatment to people in Ukraine. He’s a UK diplomat, father, runner, and founder of several benevolent social programmes overseas, basically a stand-up guy, which is apparent in his message on his fundraising page linked below.

If you’d like to help Ukrainians get more medical treatment and are in a position to donate a couple of quid, please consider doing so via his initiative: the money would reach the Red Cross all the same and you’d be helping a good guy feel he’s living an impactful life helping others.

Here’s his message:

Hi there! I may look a little daft but it’s all in a good cause.

Please have a look at my justgiving page and amplify with your contacts who might be interested in the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦.

https://www.justgiving.com/page/medicala­id4ukrainethegutlessdiplomat?newPage=tru­e

I am trying to raise funds for medical aid in Ukraine through the International Red Cross ICRC by dyeing my hair 🇺🇦 as I have today another intestinal operation.

And please look at my social media @thegutlessdiplomat on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter/ X and Olly Evans on Facebook.

Thank you and take good care.

Olly

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Zelensky autographing French cruise missiles

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Scary:

https://twitter.com/maksymeristavi/status/1689937878413910016

in the context of US sentiment about the counteroffensive’s slow progress, Politico quoted a US General saying that, along a section of the front, the Ukrainians are encountering ‘5 or 6 mines per square meter”.

Science needs to discover a new material so we can describe what these guys’ nerves are made of.

Russia is also targeting the deminers with rockets etc. I don't see how Ukraine can recover territory from Russia. If they had unlimited ordnance maybe they could saturate a small corridor and blow up all the mines in it. But their progress will be so slow that they will have to accept Russia's new borders and negotiate a cease fire. I hope I'm wrong and they can come up with a creative demining solution. They've been so clever with drones you'd think they could find a way to tackle such an old problem.

They are recovering territory and wearing down Russian reserves in the mean time. I Still believe they'll get a breakthrough at some point on the front line.

The Ukrainians sure aren't at the point they 'should just accept' some random borders on sovereign land the Russians declared!

I read somewhere that the Russians have planted troop mines under the tank mines. If you defuse the tank mine and remove it, the troop mine blows up.

I don’t know why you would be surprised or shocked by this, war involves trying to kill your enemies.
Minefields are always a mixture of Anti-Tank and AntiPersonel and are covered by artillery/machine guns etc otherwise your enemy would just disassemble them.
The Russians also have the ability to resow them with special artillery round mines.
The moral question (other than the use of AP mines)is are they making maps of where the mines are so they can eventually be removed.

they'll get a breakthrough at some point

My personal guess is that the war won't be won inch by inch on the battle field, but rather following a societal collapse in Russia of some sort. A large number of dead and injured would most likely hasten this collapse so it's just a matter of grinding them down until things finally take a momentous turn all of a sudden. In my opinion looking a the battle maps for results is failing to see the (potentially) bigger picture.

They don't need many troops to defend fortified positions. IIRC you need at least 4 times as many troops if you want to gain territory. Perhaps more, given the density of mines and the lack of air support.

More than probing, Ukraine is going to continue hammering away at scores of spots along the front until they punch through, like the sea against a bulwark. If they lose too much of their force and western support, they’ll have to dig in and we’ll have a WW1 style trench stand-off. Fortunately they still have upwards of 80% of their new kit, with more on the way including F16s.

I have literally zero info to back it up, but I have the conjecture that a thinking brain in Russia is afraid of an amphibious assault, hence the sudden extra harshness of Russia’s threatened response against any ship going towards Ukraine. They’ve hardened the approach by land to E. Ukraine and to Russia, and they have ample dominance in the air, so a miraculous assault from the sea could be the one way Ukraine could ruinously surprise them.

I’m seeing the current situation like the British sector after D-Day slowly crumbling the enemy while trying not to take casualties . The problem is in the victory Russia is most proud of, against the Germans, they accepted casualties of up to 7:1. They see this suffering as admirable.

I’ve done an Exercise that started with an amphibious landing. When the ramp goes down you look at the hills around and realise everyone for miles around would be shooting at you.

And your feet get wet

The opening scene from 'Saving Private Ryan' enters the chat.

My personal guess is that the war won't be won inch by inch on the battle field, but rather following a societal collapse in Russia of some sort. A large number of dead and injured would most likely hasten this collapse

One thing you may not be aware of is that Russia is quite big and has quite a lot of different peoples. They’ll choose the cannon fodder. They can bleed the Tuvans, Siberians, Chechens, whoever, all day long, it’ll be no threat to Moscow.

Also, what history of success have we seen in Putin resistance?

There is growing tensions inside young people in Ruzzia. Old farts will die soon and young ones have access to internet. Unlike in the 90s changes can be really rapid. It just needs to gain a critical mass. The whole mutiny affair showed that it just takes somebody strong enough and people will rally behind him. The sad thing is that Putler might not be the worse leader

How many revolutions have there been?
Everyone shrugs their shoulders up to a certain point…

A new leader might be worse, they might hate Ukraine even more than Putin does, but their number one priority would be to shore up their own security. And that means pulling troops out of Ukraine.

The economic situation is getting interesting. It has taken a long time but rhe ruble is finally worth toilet paper. This may not have any immediate impact on the war but it puts more pressure on Putin, as do the attacks on Moscow's business district and the Russian ports.