Russian invasion of Ukraine

I agree that the rate of attrition will be disgusting atm.

I know that casualty figures are obviously very hard to estimate, but there hasn't been anything published by foreign intelligence services for ages. They seemed to be doing it monthly at the beginning of the war. Any thoughts on why that could be?

Another article I can't find the link to right now was an anonymous interview with a Ukranian fighter at the Bakhmut front. He claimed the current Russian tactic was to send waves of clueless infantry straight into the Ukranian front lines. These men on foot would predictably be mowed down, but the benefit was that the shooting at close range forced the Ukranians to give away their hiding spots. Drones and scouts would spot this and the Russian artillery could then pinpoint the Ukranian positions. The Ukrainian admitted this was a pretty effective tactic, as long as you didn't count the piles of Russian bodies lying right in front of the Ukranians.

Read this too. Grim.

A drone video showed a bunch of mobniks standing around a rural crossroads.
A Ukrainian apc drove towards them and the troops dismounted guns blazing.
The Russians had no idea what to do. They didn’t shoot back or take cover, and took precious time before running away.
These guys are going to get slaughtered.

Clown.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/04/world/europe/macron-security-guarantees-russia.html

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I don't know if this is true but my friend who is a history professor reckons that this would be the first time in history that a country with an intact sitting government surrenders unconditionally or withdraws without security guarantees. As I understand it, if Russia agreed to withdraw from Ukraine without security guarantees, this would be a global first.

In all seriousness though, why shouldn’t we promise them to not invade them?

Given his recent actions, since Georgia in 2008, who would trust anything Putin signs?

Very few people, but the guarantees wouldn't be valid if he didn't hold up his end of the deal, so it doesn't matter too much how much you trust him if it stops the war.

This. They know we play by the rules yet they don't care about it.

Speaking of any assurances - what about Budapest Memorandum ? It worked out well.

It's Ukraine that needs all the assurances, not the aggressor.

The only security assurance war criminals can have is assurance to reach Hague tribunal.

It's Ukraine that needs all the assurances, not the aggressor.

Well, hopefully Ukraine can topple Putin and the Russian government so that Russia doesn't insist on security protections.

The only security assurance war criminals can have is assurance to reach Hague tribunal.

The British soldier who tortured and executrd PoWs didn't end up in the Hague.

I know I'm being massively contratian here. Of course I don't think Russia should have anything other than an unprotected and humiliating defeat. I just don't think we live in that world unfortunately.

if he didn't hold up his end of the deal,

Could easily be a mechanised artillery strike due south from Belarus into Kyiv.
By the time ambassadors are summoned to admonitory meetings in western capitals,
Ukraine would be in (administrative) chaos.

The only guarantees Putin or any futher Russian leader is given is that the lines of ATACMs armed Himars along NATOs eastern border, from Finland to Ukraine, are not first strike, but any troop movements into the buffer zone, entirely in Russian and Belarus soil, will be neutralised.

Not me but that's not the point

Two ways out of this war.

1) Collapse of Putin and the Russian government.

2) Withdrawal under a withdrawal agreement

If it's the latter, it won't be like the Berlin Declaration. It will probably have to recognise Russia's sovereignty if they will sign it. I assume they will try to hang on to annexed land...one would assume Ukraine will not budge on this.

In reality, I expect the assurances to be along the lines of "more more NATO aggression" and "no attacks in Russian soil". and that sort of meaningless bullshit. Something Outin can wave as a sign that he hasn't just had his ass handed to him.

Something Outin can wave as a sign that he hasn't just had his ass handed to him.

This shit mainly, but the security assurances would likely also have big ol' caveats saying that if he does more cunty stuff he'll also be starting on everyone else, and there will be retaliation, and if he doesn't then everyone else won't start on him while he's slowly waiting to be bumped off or die.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/05/us/politics/cruise-missiles-russia-ukraine-sanctions.html

Quite. There are two ways out of this war as far as I can see:

1. Total defeat for Russia and regime change.
   
2. Negotiated settlement with Russia being given some meaningless piffle Putin can wave around like a consolation goal in a 5-a-side tournament.
   
   

Given the risks associated with Option 1, and the fact that the meaningless piffle associated with Option 2 would be just meaningless piffle, I think Option 2 is a more likely outcome. If the Russian people want to get ride of Putin, that's a matter for them. I think history suggests that regime change imposed from outside rarely ends well, much as I wish that wasn't the case.

regime change

It's not just Putin. It's a mob run country which will find a replacement for Putin if needed.

All those Russian billionaires are not interested in regime changes.

Back to the discussion of whether the Russian soldiers are suffering hypothermia or just wasted:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6J8ZDBiACrw

It's not just Putin. It's a mob run country which will find a replacement for Putin if needed.

All those Russian billionaires are not interested in regime changes.

Sure, but that is irrelevant here. The detail of Russia's withdrawal will be decided by convention, precedent and law rather than strategising over what happens next in Russia's domestic politics. As I mentioned, I'd expect assurances of Russian sovereignty and self determination will be part of the deal. Why wouldn't it be? Given that Russia hasn't been invaded, its irrelevant anyway.

Everything you wrote makes sense and in fact is a common sense - what boils my blood is western politician speaking about security assurances for an aggressor.

An aggressor who, for no reason, invaded a neighbouring country, ruined lives of hundreds of thousands people, keep terrorising the rest bombing them daily and we gotta speak about security assurances for this aggressor?

Nobody would've been attacked Russia in the first place so why talk about security assurances? It is peak Russian diplomacy to initiate pointless, nonsense, whataboutism filled discussions.

I hope they don't forget reparations if they start asking for some security assurances. But I doubt they'll pay anything themselves (sans the funds that have been frozen).

I totally understand where you are coming from.

Over the summer I fell into a rabbit hole learning about how the German surrender in WW2 came about.

At least he high level, the instrument of surrender and the Berlin Declaration that followed it was a complete capitulation and unconditional surrender.

The thing that suprised me was how much individual negotiation, by spies,POWs and defectors went into starting the cascade of events that led to the end of the war. So even in the case of the surrender of Nazi Germany, there was a huge amount of statecraft and negotiation behind the scenes. Even if the overall surrender was unconditional, quite a few people were offered an "opportunity" or some level of "out" to make it happen. It will be the same with Russia.

The thing that worries me most is sanctions. If Russia gets to withdraw in return for sanctions being relaxed, it would be a massive fuck you to Ukraine. Surely this is a line that cannot be crossed.

This is the thing. Putler is dying soon and the rest of the goons are just waiting to grab the power. If we let them it is easy to blame everything on the senile old man. The sad thing is nothing changes. There have been fascists like Vladimir Žirinovski for as long as I remember in Russia. For a long time they were on the fringes. In lot of ways it is the same mechanism that brought Trump into power. You have a crumbling empire and the people try to find ways to hold on to country's glorious past. Unfortunately this means this time Ruzzia will need to be dismantled more throroughly than what happened in 90s and the change needs to come from within.

I guess this is why the sanctions are so important long term.

I have a feeling sanctions are not working. There is just so much wealth in Ruzzia that they do not have to worry about restrictions to trade. Too many loopholes are provided. EU should void all the russian visas and really restrict movement of ruzzian money. Let Ruzzia become a pariah state like North Korea and transport those that have tasted the life in the evil West back.