That Starmer fella...

Can't be accused of not switching on GB Energy if you only promised to swich on GB Energy.

tapforeheadguy.gif

glad to see the tories will finall be evicted,

cant say im too pumped about being used as a football over the next 6 weeks by them and labour, there isn't even the comfort blanket of "will be different when labour are in power". have seen the leader, health secutary and front benchers position on trans rights actively regress over the last years, to the point where it's not just sitting on their hands, but actively destrictive and harmful. i fully exepect even the conversion therapy ban proposal to be dropped, put on ice or undermined considering their enthusiastic support for the cass report which advocated exactly that practice but in a liberal aesthetics.

feels very section 28/gay panic vibes gotta admit, the amount of violence/abuse even here in london friends and myself face has raised notably over the last few years and it has been a direct result of politicians and media of all sides actively stoking the fires. i can only see that intensifying around the election atmosphere.

I’m not great at being serious online, but that obviously fucking sucks.

Optimistically hoping the tories have realised how little that culture war matters to people.

Hearts

Given the Tories called this election, Labour seem much better prepared for it than they do.

Gives credence to the idea that Sunak called it to avoid being ousted by an influx of letters to the 1922 committee. If you're going to go down then better to do it on your own terms.

I meant asking Kier to PM him.

Hah. Thanks for picking that up.
Actually wasn’t intentional - just a typo.
Keir isn’t a common name, so I guess I read it as a Kieran that got interrupted.

Presumably that’s why he hasn’t PM’d me!

The upcoming manifesto should be interesting to dissect. Anyone have any ideas on when that’ll be?

I do find him using small football club grounds a bit of an oddity.

Wonder if he's wanting to join the 92 club?

Can't say he was particularly convincing this morning on Today - felt very poorly prepared

^ let's give Rishi & co another 5 years then.

He could've shown up to that interview naked eating a whole salami with his teeth and it wouldn't make a fucking difference in how enthusiastically I'm going to vote for him to get the Tories fucked into a concrete bin.

He doesn't have to convince anyone to vote FOR him. He's 20 points ahead. He's already done that.

He just has to not fuck it up.

his personal opinion polls are actually an all time low for a party so far ahead

https://theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/22/keir-starmer-expected-to-make-it-to-no-10-despite-his-low-personal-popularity

Ben Page, the chief executive of Ipsos, said: “Starmer’s personal ratings are the lowest Ipsos has ever seen for an opposition leader who is so far ahead in the overall voting intention. It is more disgust at the Tories than delight at what Labour offers that is driving politics.”

a real question for labour, starmer even more so, and it has been since we saw this polling trend emerged, is what happens once this election goes through, an election which is destined to give them a parliament compasition similar to north korea.

he has probably the most polarised coalition of voters under a single party for some time. they're running on a largely, pro austerity platform focused on macro economic goals, anti immigration and hard on policing as a party who's voterbase is already split on these issues. this has alienated a lot of their core base and rewarded them with a larger appeal amongst a traditionally, politically conservative base even if not conservative in name. when the threat of the tories is gone he'll be left with divisions no disimilar to the current tory party about pleasing these factions. from polling we can see where their bread is buttered electorally (an even clearer picture post election).

If starmer doesn't deliver material goals and improvements to people in real terms, a lot of what's holding the ship together will wash over people v much like sunak saying inflation is at normal levels. this reliance on spreadsheet percentage improvement means little if the impression of people is they still are as screwed as when the tories are in. even if things stop getting worse statistically. his habbit of talking to two polarised groups completely differently will quickly catch up with him and he'll be forced to pick a side.

i think there is a misconception of people who will likely vote for labour and are not looking to be convinced, but are ultimately critical of his approach. it's percieved these people would prefer the tories or are cranky trots, but more often than not they're fearful it is creating an environment to further push the party right, or revitalise reactionary right wing parties as we see in europe. born out of managerial centerism practicing progressive realism.

i think any progressive person should be looking at this swing with relief and joy at the loss of the tories, but also skepticism at what labour has put on the line to achieve this. that electoral politics ma come around every 4-5 years but what happens between those votes, the pressure we can apply on parties during those votes is equally important. something conservatives know very well and will be doing. progressives need to practice the same scepticism for their own party. it's not just queers, teens, and muslim people having doubts, it's the ever fabled late 30-40 somethings who held their nose and voted labour post iraq invasion .

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If starmer doesn't deliver material goals and improvements to people in real terms, a lot of what's holding the ship together will wash over people v much like sunak saying inflation is at normal levels. this reliance on spreadsheet percentage improvement means little if the impression of people is they still are as screwed as when the tories are in. even if things stop getting worse statistically.

Nail on head, as ever.

There was a nice line I heard recently where someone described a political announcement where the chancellor of the time gleefully declared that GDP per capita had increased in line with their target, after which an audience member shouted up with "That's not my GDP!"

There needs to be some realism about what politics can achieve.

But I have a cast iron conviction that most people will feel an improvement in public services and their overall living standards if we can elect a Labour government.

This Diane Abbott story is mental isn't it. Times breaks the story that she's being blocked from standing as an MP, she confirms it. Starmer denies it an hour later, then she rows back from it too. What a mess.

The quotes I saw this morning were really not aligned to the headlines being generated.

However the whole thing has been a mess from starmer, abbot, the party and the press.

My latest (mis)understanding is that the NEC or some such need to decide if she can stand and they don't meet till Friday or something?

Edit:
This being the apparent "statement" by ms Abbott about her ability to stand as a candidate
"But I am very dismayed that numerous reports suggest I have been barred as a candidate."

Are you guys trying to lay some blame on Abbott for this?

Me? No I'm blaming the press for making shit up.

Ah, k. Misread. Seemed like a hot take.

Don't think the press made anything up. Think (someone in) Labour got ahead of itself by talking to the press. (That's my hot take)

Turning that comment from Abbott saying "reports ive been banned are disappointing " into the headlines so far is purely down to the shitty journalists

The explanation on Newscast this evening is worth a listen.

The purge continues
https://x.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1795880635535602134?t=LtJIUc9O-vUIlEzBsIAouA&s=19

Labour are poised to suspend Faiza Shaheen, who nearly beat IDS in 2019, as candidate for Chingford and Woodford Green

According to Joe Pike she confirmed to him by text that the times headline (that she’d been barred from standing as an MP) was correct.

https://x.com/joepike/status/1795706932478742757?s=46&t=BuG_nuwCPxJDQugVx93wbw

It was only after starmer said it wasn’t true that she rowed back.

It sounds like Abbott played a large part in causing the shitstorm herself by leaking it to the press. Ironically, all the more reason not to let her run