Science, Statistics and Studies [SARS-CoV-2]

Imperial College modelling underpinning the unlocking scenario outlined by the PM today

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963440/S1129__Unlocking__Roadmap_Scenarios_for_England_.pdf

Figure 2E shows a full unlocking at the end of April (as favoured by the hard-line Covid Research Group) would potentially lead to a 4th wave as big or bigger that we've just been through which is simply unthinkable. Even with the most gradual unlocking scenario another 40,000 to 60,000 deaths are modelled to occur by the end of the year.

I can’t seem to find this in the report, so apologies if I missed it, but do these projections all presuppose that there will be no return to lockdown? So, we would get another wave, but without taking any particular measures to reduce it?

That's right - the modelling makes no assumptions about returns to lockdown. They model 5 scenarios of release from lockdown where the main difference between each scenario is the rate of relaxation of different aspects of the lockdown. Abrupt ending of all current restrictions at the end of April is predicted to produce another wave. Even the slowest easing ending in early August is modelled to lead to a small wave next autumn

So, if we’re getting vaccinated at (roughly) 90% uptake amongst the most at risk, and the rest of the adult population is going to be offered the vaccine over the next few weeks, would the majority of these future deaths be among older people who have declined to be vaccinated? Or does the vaccine provide less protection against severe illness than we have, perhaps, allowed ourselves to believe?

Nice blog here on the data behind the vaccines and lockdown: https://makingsenseofcovid19withs.com/blog/

The modelling makes assumptions about vaccine efficacy against severe disease, disease, and infection for both the AZ & PF vaccines, vaccine uptake rates, and reduction in lockdown measures. As they say "Our results are highly dependent on the assumed (optimistic) vaccine efficacy, uptake, and rollout speed".

There isn't a breakdown of where deaths will occur in terms of the split between those vaccinated and those unvaccinated, or in terms of age profiles. My guess would be that future deaths will still broadly follow the age distribution we've seen up until now, but as you say with additional deaths associated with cohorts who don't get vaccinated for whatever reason and particularly older members of those groups.

The study doesn't suggest that the vaccines are any less effective than has already been shown. It just demonstrates how even slightly imperfect vaccine efficacy has an effect on serious illness across a large population.

and the rest of the adult population is going to be offered the vaccine over the next few weeks

Five months before the vaccine is available to all adults. There’s potentially a big slowdown in new people being vaccinated at the end of this month as supply will be spoken for by the massive backlog of second doses.

(There are rumours of a large increase in supply which could balance things out. We’ll see)

Number of daily cases continuing to drop, according to the Google reporting. Now around 3000 cases per day according to the 7 day average. I think the key thing I noticed is the although the deaths are down, the death rate is far lower. Previously it was around 2%, now it appears to be around 0.6%. Without looking into it, this probably means there are fewer hospital admissions (as a percentage of the number of cases) and fewer cases with serious side effects. To me this seems like good news.

https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-virus-is-learning-new-tricks
Always good writing, even if sometimes not great [feeling] reading.

Apols if already posted elsewhere, some interesting observations in here. Miasma is real! (?)

https://youtu.be/AFA5fTeAJno?si=Sk-sMDzR28rJfUwR

Do I want to click that?

Can you click for the team and tell us?

From a Dr Johns youtube notes

COVID, the untold story. So much more makes sense after this book and my first illuminating discussion with Dr. Craig. Get your copy in the UK here:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Expired-unto...
For friends in the US get your copy here, https://www.amazon.com/Expired-untold...
Have you ever felt the covid story did not entirely add up? Expired contains multiple eye-opening revelations about covid with compelling evidence that provides a coherent, sober and clear explanation that better fits the data we have so far.
Meticulous research by pathologist Dr Clare Craig sheds light on the largely overlooked evidence of airborne virus transmission, examining twelve related beliefs on spread, lockdowns, asymptomatic infections, and masks. In addition, Expired champions the importance of Western ethical principles, damaged by pandemic actions and calls for their restoration.
The covid debate has proved incredibly polarising. One side believed every intervention was saving lives, while the other emphasised the harms caused. Biased modelling based on a worst-case scenario led to fearful assumptions presented as fact. By dint of sheer repetition these ‘facts’ became unquestionable. Those scientists who dared to question were proclaimed dangerous. Welcome to Cloud-Covid-Land.
Let’s bring back nuance. It’s time to return to reality."

After about 2 minutes
“I took advice from Carl Henehagan”

Turns off

This is next to useless.
It’s not even an opinion. It’s just words reviewing a book.
What did you think of it?

I didn't watch. I may yet

I was a fan of his vlogs during covid. Apart from his vitamin D obsession, he did base his comments on a variety of what seemed as legit research

Includes some interesting stuff on transmission which I'd never heard before. Have any papers been published on how covid spread?

Dr Craig asserts close contact isn't the primary form of transmission, that the virus is airborne and can travel great distances infecting people as it disperses in the atmosphere. The story about the Argentinian fishing boat is very strange.

And lots of stuff about closed thinking in the medical profession and an unwillingness to listen to new ideas about how the virus spread.

What's the problem with Heneghan? He and Jefferson have been chipping away at the truisms we were fed about NPIs during 2020 and 2021.

Wrong word.
He’s just
A contrarian.

So was Diogenes. Always a good thing.

Please tell me what your concerns are and help me understand why you think this way.

The book is self published and she was too lazy to register the domain name she stuck on book jacket. Definitely not a grifter.

“Nah, Covid wasn’t that bad really”

I like the video where Dr John interviews Andrew Bridgen and his most recent uploads of speeches by Esther McVey, John Redwood, Mark Francois and Christopher Fucking Chope.

The sad thing is his channel biography/introduction shows he set out just to make genuinely educational videos for nursing students which he was doing up til 4 years ago and then COVID came along and he fucked all of that right off when he blew up, and now he has to keep churning out boomer-bait content and paid-for book promos to keep the money coming in and the grift alive.

2 million subscribers.