Science, Statistics and Studies [SARS-CoV-2]

My understanding is that @dammit's discussion was about a future retrospective study.

Ah, I misunderstood then. As with all things, that will only be possible if the clinical staff document it as such😉. It's hard enough getting them to write viral pneumonia instead of chest infection with consolidation.

Modeled deaths for Mitigation strategy, similar levels to containment strategy but without the years delay.

I believe it is this strategy Boris is now trying to lead the UK into.

Containment strategies simply delay the contagion but provide no exit path back to normal living.

I'm struggling to understand why Japan are on such a trajectory. Has anyone seen any studies or data pertinent to Japan?

I suspect that the culturally ingrained self isolation when the flu season rolls around helped.
I was trying to find my cited article for this (I read it whilst in Japan way back when I was hopeful this would pass relatively quietly), but its now buried amongst c19 news.

I'm struggling to understand why Japan are on such a trajectory.

‘The nail that sticks out shall be hammered down'

I wonder why they dropped off Hong Kong and Singapore?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/topics/zm49q6f/articles/z99jpbk
Mean
Median
mode

Good spot. Te graph you posted is confirmed cases and the one I posted is deaths. There have been no deaths in Singapore and 4 in Hong Kong. Which further emphasizes the point they are light years ahead in their containment strategy. Or the data is bollocks.

I'd like to see the Y axis with deaths/ population or so.

Im assuming from that response I’m being dumb here?

But Median = middle

According to that study the median is 20 days. So why would they make self isolation less than the median?

Median is just the numbers in a line. Average (mean) is the sum divided by the total number of instances. It gives a slightly different number. The median gives you an idea of the spread of the data.
(No snide. Am in bed)

Hope that helped?
It might be why they used median and not average monthly wage.

.

Can we please limit this thread to it's purpose, expressed in the first post by @lowbrows?

https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response

Big wedge of stuff to read here

Apologies if off topic, here is a scientific source...
https://www.cdc.gov/onehealth/basics/zoonotic-diseases.html

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Lots of Models

That’s an editorial analysis* - not a scientific study.

* if feeling generous

UCL tracking of growth rates
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/?fbclid=IwAR0x7d2mNqJOQsvn8muDVCm8q1-zrWgD4k9CyyYSp0VpCW7N7-dxuQ09Owg

Cheers for this. Been wanting to see log comparisons!

Would tracking deaths give a much more accurate picture considering different levels of testing across different countries, as well as an unknown percentage of people asymptomatic?

Deaths are going to be impacted by other variables (environment, quality of health service, age of population, etc.), so it is also a problematic metric.

https://www.euromomo.eu/

All cause mortality not affected yet and as I interpret this, slightly lower than eg 2016. Even for Italy.

This is a pretty good summary of how decisions are made without proper knowledge atm.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/