Science, Statistics and Studies [SARS-CoV-2]

Please cite all inclusions.
The other thread is good for light entertainment. Please try and avoid opinion.

South Korean mortality rate is 0.9 currently
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=&bid=0030
7000 are still isolated- not necessarily in hospital.

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand Ferguson et al. Imperial College London

Opens a pdf

Very informative, from credible, knowledgeable people.

I tried to use the first post in the prior thread as a set of links to source material. That didn't work so well. Maybe you can do the same here @lowbrows ?

Sources worth adding:

https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-in­fectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-co­ronavirus/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases­/novel-coronavirus-2019

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

Currently following an exponential growth curve.

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I like this format of a succinct analysis and then a source (if needed) rather than just wall of links

Cases = uslsess data.

Deaths is what you have to track.

The crisis modeling from the UK scientific advisory group for emergencies (SAGE) hasn't been released yet however seems likely to be based on the study requested from imperial
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196234/covid19-imperial-researchers-model-likely-impact/

I'm trying to understand impact of social distancing, it seems to only delay the peak of the disease until next winter. The health services are still overwhelmed and thousands dead.

Which is why they were trying to not implement it...

They did however implement, case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing (orange)

SO we now have something not on that graph. A mix of green and orange.

Stuff about case fatality rates from CEBM
https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

@skinny: do you know if there's a colour blind friendly chart out there? i'm finding it difficult to distinguish.

does that help?

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YES!
Many thnaks.

The global picture
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

^^^ What does the blue tinted area signify?

Period of mitigation measures

What you need is the excess deaths. Already terminal patients are the “early adopters” :(

Excess deaths are those that are 100% caused by c19?

This is pretty interesting- and tallies with some back of my scrub pants data 'handling' I was doing between cases on Tuesday.
Not that I have any real idea what I was doing- I was just working on some very, very simple assumptions based on Germany/ South Korean data.

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The period of imposing Social distancing, that's why the virus comes back once it finishes.

Should also include sequelae and superimposed infections.

Thanks @Dammit and @user62119

The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

From The Lancet - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext#seccestitle10

Can someone explain to me why if the median duration of viral shedding was 20 days, 14 days is the maximum self isolation duration advised?

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It's a bit early to be identifying people dying to sequelae of Covid19. In terms of data capture, WHO are quite specific that a sequelae is a late effect. What data are you looking at?

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Justification for suppression policies of delaying peak virus transmission in the UK

Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses
on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing
peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe
disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse
epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining
that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find
that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of
suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household
as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at
most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by
2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic
would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and
health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed
many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves
suppression as the preferred policy option.