Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

If it's not real for anyone yet, it should be now. Pretty insane stuff.

Its not the most constructive turn of phrase. But your post was a bit daft.

apparently those stats are skewed by the small sample size and age/gender not being taken into account, but still serious by all accounts.

I think a few people need to wash the sand out of their noonoos.

Use of words intensive care suggest admission to dedicated beds and the creation of a CCMDS for level 2-3 care.

They could have used all sorts of euphemism but telling the truth with minimal explanation avoids accusations of obfuscation in the future.

That's grim. :-(

@villa-ru

Ha! Lockdown wears you down

Not sure if I think a 50% survival rate is to be expected in ICU. To get in there you have to be the sickest of the sick.
This is not to belittle the skills and dedication of the staff who work there. I’m not a medic and my experience of the NHS is, luckily, limited to 24 hours in A&E.

Yeah. Gonna be fewer bbqs in the park this weekend.

Your hired.

We need more experts like you in this thread. Most are holby city watchers.

If a 50% survival rate in ICU is being reported for this particular kind of condition, then that'll be what it is, assuming the reporting is correct.

Obviously, survival rates will differ for the millions of other conditions that people may be admitted to ICUs with.

ICU will mean that medics believe the need for a ventilator is imminent. Otherwise he would not be there.

Thanks. That’s clarified it nicely. I’d read it as overall 50/50 whatever you went in with.

Too soon for Ivan Drago?

Well, I don't think that it would even be possible to say that, and if it were, it would probably not be very useful information.

The guardian initially reported on the 50% thing and then added a disclaimer at the end.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/28/coronavirus-intensive-care-uk-patients-50-per-cent-survival-rate

This article was amended on 30 March 2020. The headline and first paragraph referred to a 50% mortality/survival rate for coronavirus patients admitted to ICU. Calculations of case fatality rates are complex while an outbreak is ongoing and, although one method can be to divide the number of deaths by the number of deaths plus recovered patients (ie to look only at those patients for whom an outcome is known), its reliability depends on the extent to which the outcome for patients still in treatment can be assumed to be similar. The ICNARC report on which the article’s calculations were based is early data in the Covid-19 outbreak. As such, a small sample of 165 patients, which could be biased towards the most and least severe cases, may not be indicative of the outcome for all those admitted to critical care. The headline, introduction and later reference to death rates have been amended accordingly

I should have read that first instead of posting some bad stats. Feel a bit bad about causing confusion in here.

Pretty sure Italy were reporting 50% of patients who were admitted to ICU died as well.

This

The 50% thing is used in the imperial and the sage model right?

And that model says:
Assume 50% will go to critical care and of those 50%will die.

And I'm not sure if that model has been released yet? It just references previous work the group has.done in modelling other respiratory illness at.large scale.

A couple of permutations exist here. Every bed in ICU should have a ventilator. So he could be receiving special treatment ICU which might normally happen on a ward but this ensures he has access to a ventilator (which does also make you wonder if he doesn't need to be in ICU is he taking up someone else's spot?). Or if he does need to be in ICU then yes this is serious and it might not be surprising if he is on a ventilator by morning, and so Downing Street have been under playing his condition for some time. The last one is that he is the Prime Minister and medical protocol for a PM may be totally different to what the public gets. Anyway these are my partners thoughts (she is a senior palliative care nurse)

One thought from me is just about everyone needs a good 'fuck off' from time to time, I know lockdown has been making me salty and I need of being taking down a peg or two. And being on the forum does my mental health no good that's for sure

Don't feel bad. This is a thread for discussion and debate.

Oh fuck - careful bringing in the expert opinion of your partner on to here.