Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Daily cases definitely dropping now. Take out the big dip yesterday and the curve is still definitely on the way down. Probably (hopefully) be around the 10k mark by the end of lockdown and continue going down for a while.

Deaths look like they’re still rising but the rate of increase looks like its decreasing. I’m guessing we’ll see the current peak in about 2 weeks or so. Sad that extrapolating that out suggests the death rate will still be very high over Christmas.

/CSB / expert armchair statistician etc.

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Since I can pay for a private test and feel OK (two people I know that got NHS tested and prescribed vitamin D actually felt low, no energy...clear symptoms) I wouldn't annoy the NHS with it, would be more curiosity.

Perhaps I should do it and see what comes out of it :)

But in your case, yeah that's not so good, it is better if the GP follows up.

She doesn't like vitamin drops?

She doesn't like vitamin drops?

She is old enough to swallow a tiny 5mm pill.

The mention of vitamin drops reminds me of when she was a baby and we had to give her loads (abidec, folic acid, iron, gaviscon IIRC). She wasn't keen on that lot but she was also <1 so I assume has forgotten all about it.

Local tier list is out...

https://www.gov.uk/find-coronavirus-local-restrictions

Of course it's fallen over with all the requests.

edit: London in tier 2 according to the BBC.

Not working.

List of regions at https://www.gov.uk/guidance/full-list-of-local-restriction-tiers-by-area

The Graun and the FT both do a 7 day average graph. The new case rate is dropping fast now, and the timing suggests lockdown is having an effect.

Given the general "normal" number of people out and about I wonder where the cause and effect actually lies? Pubs? Gyms? Not Schools?

Plus Work places and public transport.

The Graun and the FT both do a 7 day average graph.

Nice one - thanks.

The new tiers have just been released, bit confused, Am in the South West (Devon). The South West appears is in all three tiers, although Devon is in tier two. Can I just use the South West in tier one?

I think South West is just the heading to make it easier for people to navigate through each tier, rather than an actual group. You will be in Tier Two.

I think those are just subheadings to quickly show you where to look in each Tier, so you’ll be Tier 2.

Of course it's fallen over with all the requests

Didn't anticipate demand - is Dido in charge?

Normally the gov.uk stuff is very well designed.

Machester 3 liverpool region 2 thats is the scores on the doors for this week .

Yeah. That was very tongue in cheek. It must be seriously hard to plan the resource for a single moment when thousands of people will click at once and then there'll next to no traffic for weeks afterwards.

Not really. I couldn't do it but there are people who specialise in horizontally scaling this kind of task using AWS/Azure/etc.

You do it by not hiding a very simple list behind a needless postcode checker.

If you must have a postcode checker, put it live later when 50 million people aren’t trying to check it during the same minute.

Fair enough. That's me told.

Might just be part of the plan to confuse the f*ck out of most people, so they stay at home regardless then.

In Northern Ireland kids being at school plays a fair bit in spreading Coronavirus.

Not sure how much you can extend that to the whole of the UK.

A superspreader at a wedding also caused a fair bit of causes in one town...

Now there are keeping hospitality and shops on top shut for 2 weeks (sigh...) so that will allow more calculated guesswork for Rona spreaders.

But our T&T is also not good enough for really accurate figures of what did what.

You can get vitamin D gummy sweets that my kids love

The ones we had are awful in the opinion of me and my daughter. There didn't seem to be a lot of choice when your GP has told you to get high strength ones (25µg).

I need to make a train journey next weekend. Just a 10 minute one from London zone 2 to zone 3 and back. Do you have to book in advance and is there any requirement to make a seat booking at that point? Or can you just Oyster in and out as usual?

Oyster in and out as usual.
Wear a mask.

I think in this second wave, few countries are doing a great job for track and trace. Until the last few weeks, Luxembourg has been great but the increase in cases has caused issues. So much so that a colleague got a notification to quarantine his daughter for a period starting 8 days ago... but he only got it yesterday and it ends on Sunday.