Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Yeah, no blood test for us today so I guess it follows a similar pattern.

Swabs far less invasive than I thought they'd need to be.

I think they're working off something like this:

i.e. an ensemble of models that each produce a confidence interval.

I agree confidence intervals aren't particularly hard to understand but what do I know, I'm not any kind of outreach/communication person. I guess they could have reapplied something like the IPCC "likelihood" wording or whatever

I’m struggling to see how your statement is backed by that article.

The UK has a large percentage of deaths outside hospital. But if your objective was to keep people alive Sweden did not do well. Their economy looks just as damaged.

The Swedish and UK death rates seem similar. UK GDP dropped 20% in April. Sweden predicting a 10% GDP drop for 2020.

I'm very sceptical about the infection rate data and by extension the R rate. The efficacy of the antibody tests seems to be coming under increased scrutiny with doubts expressed on R4 about the testing of the antibody testing (based on half hearing the latest edition of More or Less).

Some sensible sage talk found on BBC live feed:

Spending six seconds at one metre carries the same risk as 60 seconds at two metres. Then there’s ventilation. A stuffy confined location will make infections more likely. A good supply of fresh air will make a big difference. Whether people are face-to-face – which carries the greatest risk – or sitting back-to-back is vital. And noise level is a factor too: if people have to force their voices – such as in choirs - that increases the chances of them releasing the virus into the air. Finally, barriers to infection such as face coverings or screens can play a part, if keeping apart isn’t possible.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/jun/14/uk-coronavirus-news-updates-covid-19-rishi-sunak-economy

Rishi Sunak: Reducing distancing from 2 to 1 meter is a decision for ministers, not scientists

🤦

I wonder whether the scientists’ reticence to reduce the distance is based on their belief that masks won’t be worn sufficiently (whether through a lack of availability or through unwillingness to comply) to mitigate the higher risks of getting closer to other people.

On that note - there are a lot more places selling masks now than a few weeks ago.

I've just returned from the supermarket. Mask wearing was well below 10%.

Also no queuing to get in (no staff on the door) and no trolleys being moved from the carpark to the front of the store. Perhaps short of staff?

If the science around the efficacy of mask wearing is still weak or inconclusive then they would discount their use anyway. I’d imagine.

Shops here don’t allow you in without a mask. Restaurants and bars the same. It’s the easiest way to make people wear them; don’t get any service without one.

Rishi Sunak: Reducing distancing from 2 to 1 meter is a decision for ministers, not scientists

Sunak is right here, all the decisions are for ministers. The scientists advise, the ministers decide.

To date, a combination of poor advice, poor preparation and a government content to take a riskier approach have caused the shitshow here in the UK.

From what I've seen the jury is out on the 2 meter rule. The issue is, it's almost certainly safer than 1 meter, but at a higher economic cost as it prevents a significant number of businesses from being viable.

It is a ministerial decision whether to reduce it based on scientific advice as to just what increased risk there is.

I think announcing the review is probably the right thing. In reality, it's always been under review, but with internal party pressure and conflicting evidence/reports being selectively published in the media, indicating you're actively reviewing it is a good idea. The eventual decision is the tricky bit.

The WHO recommended one metres didn't they?

How do you eat and drink with a mask on?

I know in one country you must wear a mask to walk to be seated and can remove it while at the table but must where it if you go to the toilet etc.

The NHS Trust I work for has been trying to figure out Matt Hancock's announcement/comment on mandatory mask wearing for a week now and at 4.45 pm Friday we got a Trustwide email that every single employee, regardless of role has to wear a mask as of tomorrow.

The rationale being that contact tracers are much more likely to eliminate mutual mask wearers from their contact lists, thereby reducing the levels of staff being asked to isolate.

Exactly how it works here. And it works well.

Yeah but they’ve demonstrated pretty clearly that their advice isn’t based purely on the science, but on what powerful players want.

Sure he's right and I agree with your post, but to me it sends a signal of politics over science.

Maybe I'm just being a big tinfoil hat after all the fuckups and gaslighting and hear non existing dog whistles :)

Walk up to door with mask on, get shown to table with mask on, sit down and take mask off, stand up to leave or use the toilet; put the mask back on. Tables are further apart than they were before and some have screens between them. In honesty, everyone is joining in the charade but I don't think people really believe it. Numbers in all these places are reduced so that's the real difference in general I think and even places that would usually be packed are relatively quiet.

I think it helps that every adult here got 50 masks from the government so it's just a case of having a handful in the car or bag for when you need them.

From what I've seen the jury is out on the 2 meter rule. The issue is, it's almost certainly safer than 1 meter, but at a higher economic cost as it prevents a significant number of businesses from being viable.

Anecdotally I've heard it's cultural.

If you ask the average French person to keep 1m from everyone they'll keep roughly 1m from everyone.

If you ask the average Brit to keep 1m from everyone they'll keep 0.6m from someone so, for Brits, it's safer to ask them to keep 2m from everyone so they keep at least 1m from everyone (most of the time, etc).

Relaxing it to 1m in the UK is pretty much inviting it to go back to normal in queues, although restaurants/etc will be forced to make sure that tables/etc are all 1m apart. You just can't rely on the average Brit to keep their side of the bargain.

(If you ask the average Finn to keep 2m from everyone they'll continue to stay 3m from everyone. Hence that bus stop photo from 2016 that's been going round.)

Yeah, totally agree with this. A huge part of rules in the UK seem to be made a little harsher with the idea of hoping people only break them a bit, and therefore do what you actually wanted them to do in the first place. 20mph zones are another example.

@edscoble the 1 meter WHO advice is the one I'm talking about when saying the jury is still out. It's currently being slated by UK experts.

Have we had the Rory Stewart video from March on here yet? He's still the best Tory I've encountered through the the recent litterny of shit storms. He's still a Tory though (regardless of what he wants you to think).

5 min highlights:
https://mobile.twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1238085538957139968

15 minutes if you're bored.

https://youtu.be/pdeHUGalpaE

The scary part is the twat ministers we've got making the decisions. Unfortunately, too many other twats voted them in.

Lines at Primarks.

Top snarky comment from the Guardian:

Long queues have been seen outside - of course - Primark stores across England, as people queued for essential items such as £1.50 hoop earrings and Friends-branded PJs which they have been desperate for during lockdown.

Simon what's his face travelbloke on the morning news, on a packed easyJet saying "it's your choice!" Clever bit of nudge-theory?