Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

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Fatality rate now considered to be 3.4%
Tomorrow I might have a look at some data.
Curious as to population age spread in different countries and how that might effect mortality rates.

I know, my parents live on the same road and I went to school there.

I'd be curious to understand why the death rate appears to be so high in Italy

Mmm dead flesh

High life expectancy, large elderly population

Looking through the internets I found the argument that we might start seeing a strong correlation between heavy smoking and deaths from Covid. The article I found wasn't exactly great science so I can't be bothered to link to it, but the higher proportion of male deaths seemed to correlate well with the higher ratio of male smokers in China.

(Speculation) Deaths are easy to count, cases of the disease where there are mild symptoms much less so.

my (near) virgin lungs sighing in relief in that case... The pollution in China would potentially also be a huge factor in that case too.

I guess their immune systems were pasta their best

I heard in Italy it's mutated into the Corleonevirus, hence why it's more deadly.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article

Only known cure for the CV is a CB hug

I'll make sure to put that on mine the next time I update it.

I read something the other day (of course I can now no longer find it) suggesting that the hit in Italy could be linked to the slave trade in the fashion/garment industry, with a recent increase in people being smuggled in from China to work in relation to a big fashion week. Likely total bollocks, but doing my bit here to spread potential misinformation.

Guess the obvious question is why not also for London fashion week...?

Dunno. Is the "made in London" marque as big as the "made in Italy" one when it comes to these things? Again, likely total bollocks.

My grandad was at Ypres (Passchendaele) in a pioneer battalion and survived but was gassed...told me he saw a mule drown in the mud...He didn't get Spanish Flu either.

The boring Hanlon's razor explanation is probably just that lazy journalists typed "person with facemask" into free-stock-images.net and 99% of the results were (pre-coronavirus) East Asian people

The mid paragraph is pure Jonny cash

That and even now, certainly where I work in Bloomsbury, there’s a visible cultural difference.

I wonder why the rate of recovered people in Korea doesn't rise.
Some of the exchange students have already been sent back to their home country due to the current situation there. My flight is on March 9 so I still can cancel it but I don't really want to. Not sure what to do

6 foot 6 he stood on the ground
He weighed 245lb
But I saw that giant of man brought down
By a thing called ...
Covid 19
Doesn't quite scan.

Source on this?

It is just the total deaths over reported cases worldwide per the John Hopkins data (link in the first post in the thread). 3159 deaths over 92,818 cases.

Leading epdimeioligists (Neil Ferguson, Mark Lipsitch) estimate the number of cases to be under reported by something in the range of 4x to 10x. Obviously the higher denominator implies a lower case fatality rate.

On the flip side, deaths lag new cases, so during a period of rapid growth in new cases the case fatality rate is likely to be understated. You can't really calculate the CFR until there are no new cases and all cases have been resolved.

On balance, there seems to be some consensus that a CFR around 1% is a good estimate at the moment.

Probably better if you said something like 3.4% of reported cases have died per John Hopkins site.

Fatality rate now considered to be 3.4%.

This is makes it sounds like the general consensus is that it's 3.4%. which is wrong.