Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Here in China we've now all got QR codes that show whether we're safe or not, they're colour coded and the rationale behind which colour you are is secret, LOL. I am green despite being banned from my office building. If you're yellow or red then you're not allowed in public buildings, public transport, taxis, etc. To be honest if you're red I think you're fucked and a few steps away from being picked up by some guys in hazmat suits (this happened to a friend of a friend the other day, she's now in an isolation hospital somewhere, grim).

^^ (@t-v) I'd argue that's exactly what he's been doing.

I am only repeating what has been said, as I'm not an expert in virology.

I'm not an epidemiologist, but I do work with public health data. I do have a very basic understanding of numbers.
I have pointed out the comparison of rates. It doesn't help when people just pipe up with "yes but what about?"

The rolling news isn't going to help here, I'd probably keep an eye on the statty websites for a global overview. And try to keep up with PHE where possible.
There may be considerable impact, like a school closing. But to talk about mass graves and hospitals seems to be going down the rabbit hole of panic.

I'm not being blase and I'm not advocating everyone runs out and tries to get this. I am suggesting that maybe dial down the speculation, comparison to previous infections (which happened over 100 years ago in very different circumstances), increase the hand washing, catch it kill it bin it, and unless you can wear a mask properly don't wear one.
Also.
Shout about the risk of employees not paying for self isolating staff. And those legal teams who take the position of trying to protect businesses from false absences or the potential risk of someone deliberately ignoring advice and then wanting time off.

Ta

Questions about government contingency plans appear to be in scope to me.

Yeah, but what about that time I played Plague Inc. and only Greenland survived?

Old (2018) BBC program about a simulated Flu pandemic:-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p059y0p1/contagion-the-bbc-four-pandemic

How?
Why?
What will you do with this information?
Will you rest easily?
Will you want more?
What will you do next when you have that?
How is this protective to you?
How is this protective to others reading this?
How does this not cross from information to generating concern/panic?

If you accept that the government is only just having its first COBRA meeting, I think you might realise that we're fucked with this mob in charge.

edit: that last sentence is not helpful. The people in charge of EPRR, the organisations around this are very good.
The cabinet are the people I've called "that mob". As in Johnson et al. They're not helping here.

Divergence of opinion on what is and isn't acceptable to discuss is interesting. I definitely take the point that digital media and forums can feed panic and maybe that is what is happening here.
Another perspective is that peer-to-peer information sharing, particularly on a forum like this where people know and respect one another, is useful. I could close the thread, and maybe that is the right thing to do, but far less informed debate is a click away (facebook, twitter etc).

I suspect that some of it has to do with the psychology of how people respond to this type of stress. Some get relief from discussing it. Others find it creates further distress. I don't know the answer. Maybe shutting the thread is the right thing?

The 11,000 or so test that have been done in the UK, does anyone have any idea if they are just on random patients or on ones with symptoms or possible exposure?
From a data perspective seems like a key piece of information needs filling, that is how many asymptomatic cases there are in relation to cases with symptoms.

I think closing the thread is not the right answer.

I think bringing things to discuss, and trying to stay on topic is always helpful.

If you accept that the government is only just having its first COBRA meeting, I think you might realise that we're fucked with this mob in charge.

edit: that last sentence is not helpful. The people in charge of EPRR, the organisations around this are very good.
The cabinet are the people I've called "that mob". As in Johnson et al. They're not helping here.

https://twitter.com/thomaschattwill/status/1234252762055090176

Meanwhile in the US, Pence and co are praying it away.

From PHE
When a clinician suspects novel coronavirus (COVID-19), they take samples from the nose, throat and deeper respiratory samples, package and send them safely to PHE Colindale. PHE can provide a laboratory result from this specific virus on the same working day.

As of 01 March at 9am, a total of 11,750 people have been tested in the UK, of which 11,715 were confirmed negative and 35 positive.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#diagnosis-and-analysis

These are the regulations in place right now
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/129/contents/made

I suspect that some of it has to do with the psychology of how people respond to this type of stress. Some get relief from discussing it. Others find it creates further distress. I don't know the answer. Maybe shutting the thread is the right thing?

Yeah but enough about the Tubeless thread

Interesting piece from Zeynep Tufekci on the reasons to prepare for a coronavirus pandemic; not out of fear, but because the disruption that will come from a pandemic will be lessened if we are thoughtful. There hasn't been a widespread disruption to the day to day operation of the West since the oil crisis of the 1970s, so people are just not prepared, mentally, to have things Not Work.

Some folks are. People who lived through the fall of the soviet block, Syrian refugees, etc. But Boris Johnson and his cabinet are almost incapable of thinking of Western capitalism not providing, having always had it work for them extremely well, so they're absolutely rubbish at preparing for things outside of their world-view. And the people whose job it is to tell them about External Events are the experts and mandarins of the home service they've been telling to fuck off since they got in power...

But Boris Johnson and his cabinet are almost incapable of thinking of Western capitalism not providing, having always had it work for them extremely well, so they're absolutely rubbish at preparing for things outside of their world-view

Really? You seem awfully sure about this. You must know them intimately?

Thanks, I'd read that but it's not explicit. As presumably some of these people being held in isolation have been tested regardless...?
To my mind it would be helpful if they broke down the positive tests in to subgroups and were recording deaths.

The 11,000 or so test that have been done in the UK, does anyone have any idea if they are just on random patients or on ones with symptoms or possible exposure?

They are testing patients with breathing diffculties but no reason to suspect Covid-19 in 100 GP practices: http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/clinical/clinical-specialties/infectious-diseases/100-gp-practices-to-take-part-in-opportunistic-testing-for-coronavirus/20040205.article

There are suggestions a GP in Haslemere was identified this way but I haven't seen that confirmed. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/29/officials-try-to-trace-contacts-of-first-patient-to-catch-coronavirus-in-uk

LOLZ

You can't do that. You'd be able to work out who exactly a person was then.
Disclosure and all that.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/methodologytopicsandstatisticalconcepts/disclosurecontrol/policyonprotectingconfidentialityintablesofbirthanddeathstatistics

#rep

What is the purpose of this thread now?

So someone who's knows stuff about public health can help put some of this stuff into perspective.

Once we're done with that then we can just turn this into a general prepper thread.

When you find someone who knows about public health can you direct them here?