General Election 2019

I know this thread and the political whirlwind is fast-moving, but I think @villa-ru has called it perfectly.

Whilst I agree with Labour’s balanced approach to Brexit, and think his principled position is admirable, I think both are not the way politics are being played out and voters are being won in today’s climate. Labour are being visibly ripped apart, and the question is whether Boris will have a minority or majority government after the 12th (I fear the second).

Agreed. The wider discussion would seem to include the context of the use of the term 'longstanding friendship' in another post (reported here.

It's not conclusive IMO.

Whatever you think of that article, and the comments about Johnson are mostly positive, or whatever your political stance, this is easily the best of the comments:

Not all British Jews were thrilled, however. Actor and writer David Schneider said: “I for one welcome our new lying racist dog-whistling, incompetent, principle-free, bull********, back-stabbing, British-citizen-in-Iran-incarcerating, white-supremacist-befriending, business-f******, reality-f******, countrycidal maniac overlord”.

Cider factory.

If Johnson swerves Andrew Neil, they should empty chair him and do an hour of fact-checking against his campaign speeches.

Issue could be more complicated than just Johnson swerving...

"Labour source tells me BBC informed them Boris Johnson would do an Andrew Neil interview next week.

Turns out no such agreement had been reached.

If Tory leader isn't subjected to same scrutiny as Mr Corbyn, but his team was told he would be, that's a problem for the BBC."

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1199722617156100097

Corbyn’s “there are good people on both sides” approach to Brexit means that if you’re not a fan of him personally it means he’s secretly in favour of the side opposed to you. If you’re a fan then you may think he’s aligned to the side you support, but from the position of someone who was very much a Corbyn fan he just looks like he doesn’t have the courage to take a position and lead the debate on it.

His refusal to answer questions directly doesn’t help- from man of integrity to man of Teflon. And he’s not good at the Teflon approach, which in some ways is to his credit but it’s not going to win an election.

I think the question now is at what number of seats does Corbyn resign- 220?

It will be Lab minority with SNP informal support.

Tories have spent their gains from BXP and other leavers, Antisemitism smearing is at fever pitch (and looking to be unsustainable), Labour policies are incredibly popular across the board, new clarity on Corbyns position, Corbyn is performing well (when not on Andrew Neil's show), Johnson looking to avoid an Andrew Neil interview, Labour doing a good job at exposing Tory's troubled relationship with the truth or common moral decency ... etc.

Interesting, when you compare this against the tweet linked above.

Also interesting. Tory held marginals tend to be slightly more precarious than Labour held ones.

Banter heuristic prediction:

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Corbyn’s “there are good people on both sides” approach to Brexit means that if you’re not a fan of him personally it means he’s secretly in favour of the side opposed to you. If you’re a fan then you may think he’s aligned to the side you support, but from the position of someone who was very much a Corbyn fan he just looks like he doesn’t have the courage to take a position and lead the debate on it.

Why does it matter to anyone which "side" Corbyn would be on? The point (if it's what you want) is to get a second referendum in which his is only one vote, as is everyone else's.

Because he’s the leader. Corbyn’s own position may be that he generates a consensus and then administers the process to deliver on it, but I suspect few believe that to be true. I don’t, for example- but maybe I’m the only one in the UK with this view.

What do you think he would do?

I think he’s not going to get to deliver said referendum because he’s about to lose to a man who had been sacked twice for lying, because people don’t believe him.

How can Labour take a position on Brexit? I'd imagine their base is much more divided than the conservatives- young remainers and stereotype klaxon working class northern leave voters. If he takes a position he'd lose the support of one camp, hence credible deal vs remain ref2.o.

Running a hard remain line doesn't seem to have worked very well for the Liberal Democrats.

He’s already lost the leavers- they will vote Tory or BXP.

You avoided my question.

^^ It's the only mature/sane policy for a party attempting to overcome the shower of shit that Cameron et al has left the country with without fanning further division. I struggle to comprehend how people - who have spent the time to think about it - continue to argue that it's the wrong approach.

Tory, most likely. It's amazing to see how completely BXP support has crashed. It's at 5% now, according to the BBC poll tracker. I suppose Boris' strategy of making everything about brexit and 'delivering brexit' has paid off well in that sense.

Actually, 4% according to the Guardian tracker - just 1% above the Greens. And that collapse in BXP support is mirrored exceedingly well by the sustained increase in Tory support over the last 3 to 4 weeks. (Not that that is a proof of people specifically switching allegiance from BXP to the Tories, but it is pretty noticeable)

Its a stupid policy that totally ignores reality.

Leavers don’t want a second ref, so by stating that you are going to have one you convince them that you are a remainer and you lose their vote.

Meanwhile you state that you might campaign to leave in the second ref and convince remainers that it may well be a stitch up- lose/lose.

So Corbyn, as a democratic socialist, prepares to lose to a party that has inflicted 9 years of austerity and whose manifesto makes the future one of permanent austerity whilst selling the NHS to the American health businesses because he won’t lead.

Whats not viable about Corbyn holding a neutral stance?

Fucken funny, and tragic to see many intelligent people project their own assumption that a politician should always act dictatorially and find a corner to fight, etc. but then in the same breath decry the shitty, divisive game of politics that's being played out around Brexit currently and the media that enable it.

Seems the pragmatic, and responsible thing for a PM to do on what many should be a non-partisan issue.

Bearing in mind that Corbyn is a politician who has forged a career on the politics of democratic expression, arbitration and equality.

because he won’t lead.

Ok, but realistically, how would you want him to lead? Go full remain, or... ?

Because honestly I don't see a 'way out' for him that leaves him with a net plus of voters. It might make him more trustworthy for the ones who are left, but does that help when you end up even further behind the Tories?

^^^

Leavers don't want a 2nd ref. True. They also don't want to be told "fuck off, we're revoking."

Remainers may not want a government that could possibly support a renegotiated Brexit deal. I agree. But I think you will find that they would, on the whole, prefer that AND a second referendum to the Tory deal.

I'm not sure what the intelligent policy which it totally in touch with reality is that you're insinuating exists.

And I'm also still waiting to find out what you think Corbyn would do were he to win the next election re: campaigning.

Well ... The Grown Up In The Room position that Labour are spinning relies on their attacks on Tory brexit and "No Deal" landing well with Leavers.

We'll probably find out this week once the Trump NHS papers go through the media cycle.

But leavers take the second referendum to be that “fuck off”, so no matter what the intent behind it the impact is to commit to remain, whilst at the same time he has interviews with Andrew Neil where he couldn’t have been shiftier.

My view- I’m fairly sure, but not totally sure, that he’d have the referendum.

But he won’t win this election so it’s moot.

They won’t.

2019 is not 2017.
Johnson > May
Corbyn 2017 > Corbyn 2019

Got our Labour board up outside the house now, the tide could well be turning.

Although to be fair we've had one for 10 years plus and while successful at a constituency level it hasnt swung the nation yet.