General Election June 2017

well that's 2 in the bag.

I present my brother:

We need ukip in charge couldn't vote for them though. Don't particularly like any of them

Well, since you lot haven't got me my MBE yet, perhaps working on tactical2017 will do it :)

Labour down on exit polls in both Sunderland and Newcastle.

ha! the barometer of political change indeed

Technically... SF is NOT a catholic party, but marxist in origin. They do not resist the catholic church too much as it can cost them votes. But they aren't religious.

The DUP are total bible bashers though. And in a dodgy thing about a Brexit ad:https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/adam-ramsay-peter-geoghegan/democratic-unionist-party-brexit-campaign-manager-admits-he-didn-t-kn

Because the laws on declaring donations in NI are super lax...

Argh.

Don't like the sound of that.

Houghton has been taken over by Daleks?

Thanks for the corrections. I was being hand-wavey for the sake of quick communication of core concepts, but yup, hence tactical2017 kept just saying "it's complicated".

too UKIP for UKIP

Some light relief in all the hubbub

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/06/greg-knight-tory-campaign-video-tory-alan-partridge-election

Conservatives up 11% in Sunderland, so that excitement was a bit premature.

Fuck.

gonna be a long night.

i'm on the sauce.

I can't stay awake for this... need to get a train in the morning over to a city a little colder than this one. Presently in a city where it was 39'c today, getting over to one where it's only 36'c tomorrow :)

Nothing I can do can change anything now, I'll go to sleep feeling good and hopeful :)

YouGov poll proving pretty accurate so far... with an n of 2 obviously

well done, good effort with your work

good luck sleeping

I suspect the Tories will win more seats than the exit poll predicts. How many is anyone's guess.

I read something about 'shy Tories' who wouldn't talk openly about which party they voted for. With their election campaign having been so lacklustre, it's quite possible that this may have become even more of a trend. Standard disclaimer: I have no idea what I'm talking about when it comes to party politics or elections.

There is a ThNRC election results scrutineering committee in the potters bar 'spoons

Some chatter about the exit poll perhaps being out by 15 seats (i.e. with the Tories possibly getting up to 15 more...)

I doubt the Tories will do as badly as the poll predicts but equally won't do well.

Well, since you lot haven't got me my MBE yet, perhaps working on tactical2017 will do it :)

So you can turn it down?

Night night boss

If I have a wank, will it make a difference?

Just a note on exit polls: I haven't been able to work out the method that they've used here, but all things being equal, in safe seats, you'd have less people on the ground doing exit polling than in close seats. (So exit polls in close seats should be more accurate?)

No idea if that's the case here though.

Also, some, there has (according to the FT I think) never been an exit poll wrong by more than 20 seats apparently.

No worries, it gets a lot of people. The SDLP is party lefty and part hardcore catholic for example... Alliance has some bible bashers too but not many, Greens are all unbelievers but don't want to say it, the UUP is a little religious too.

I may have gotten a colleague too vote and in his area tactical2017 showed "it's complicated" :)

But it's a total DUP VS SF area, and he can't stand the Shinners or the Duppers... so he may have voted for Alliance. Which has no chance at all. Upper Bann is grim, grim grim...