US Politics

Article in The Times saying how many on the far-right are now abandoning Trump as he's moved more to the centre and how his campaign has been taken over by Washington types from the swamp.

‘But if he thinks he's definitely going to lose he is absolutely the sort of person who'd bail before defeat.’ This is I think what i had imagined.

Haley is a stronger / more dangerous proposition than Vance. I don’t doubt they can pull any and all the strings to make it happen if they want, process schmocess

He can’t afford to lose. Despite a clearly sympathetic/corrupt judge currently delaying cases being brought against him, he knows that he’s royally screwed if he loses. He’d have to run to Russia to have a chance at avoiding prison time, and lawyers will be coming after his and his kids’ ill gotten gains for years.

yes, but why not? would get a warm reception there and nearly dead anyway

As Andy said, there is not a chance he'll step down. a) He thinks he's going to win and won't listen to anyone saying he won't and b) if he doesn't win, the support that has been put in place to foul up/delay the results will cast enough doubt (in some people's minds) that he will claim he has won and it's been stolen (again).
There won't be a landslide against him - it will be close. And close gives him room to play out the stolen election routine again, but with potentially more impact as they will have learnt from last time. And he'll be able to grift up on that for ever.

Lol

Top Trump advisers in turmoil after campaign’s worst month of 2024

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/15/trump-campaign-leadership

He’d have to run to Russia to have a chance at avoiding prison time

If he knows he'll lose then the shrewd move is to cut a deal and pull out, rather than lose the election and try and do a deal with less juice.

This is America.

Look at Epstein's deal first time around. Do you genuinely think that Trump couldn't workout a no prison, ring fenced assets deal?

Hopefully he cuts a deal and the Democrats just lie to him.

Off to jail he will go whilst bleating about unfairness and conspiracies... but, 'the boy who cried wolf' and all that

I should say for the record that on balance I don't think he'll bail out.

But I think it's well within the realms(sp?) of possibility.

Do you genuinely think that Trump couldn't workout a no prison, ring fenced assets deal?

I think it could go either way. Biden’s out of the picture, which I think lessens the possibility of Trump having the whole library thrown at him (given their history and trump’s open threats against him), but there’s still the chance that he’s made an example of in the return to rule of law.

In practice, given his slimy “businessman” nature, if polls keep trending towards Kamala, I think he’ll try to cut a deal before the election, just as you said.

He could claim dementia. They wouldn't jail him. He'd get a generous deal.

I think a universal deal, pre-election is extremely unlikely on practical grounds alone. He'd have to cut separate deals with prosecutors in NY, GA and the Fed special counsel (as there is no superceding authority that can quash the state prosecutions / convictions.) Also, the federal documents case in FL, is temporarily mooted, after the judge threw it out. It would be tough to deal on that prior to the Fed's appeal, which I think is already filed. All the while negotiating some sort of handover to a new candidate on the republican side.

What the Dems achieved with the Biden transition is already a minor miracle and that was without the baggage of a psychologically impaired candidate, one state criminal conviction pending sentencing and another state trial and two more federal trials in progress.

His best bet to stay out of jail, is to win the election. His second best bet, is to promise not to contest the result and back the winner, in return for clemency after the election. Zero chance he opts for the latter though....

From Reddit:

Harris now favourite with the bookies

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Not terribly generous odds for a third party to win the popular vote @ 50/1 considering it hasn't happened for 200 odd years and pretty much can't with the current processes.
Not that the odds for alternative choices for president are much better.

I'm shocked Michelle Obama only gets 66/1. How could that even happen? Kamala dies out of the blue, Michelle Obama somehow wins the Democrat nomination, then on top of that she manages to beat Trump?

I was convinced that said 'Gretchen Weiners' for a second.

Healthcare for all

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C-vH-ZZN_Rw/?igsh=cjc4NGMyYXFkamg4

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I have never made, and do not intend to make, an Instagram account. Or revive an ancient FB account to use it.

Is it possible to watch clips like that one, without an account or the app?

I have never made, and do not intend to make, an Instagram account.

OK, Boom-

Or revive an ancient FB account to use it.

Oh.

Mate who lives in the states sent me this. The linked website is every bit as insane as you’d imagine:

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https://thekidsguide.com/fighting-indoctrination/?promotioncode=T18WD24A

Most parents don’t realize all the ways their kids are being taught what to believe. From messages on TV and online, and even the teachers at school who parents should be able to trust, kids are being told to believe in someone else’s biased, dangerous opinions on race, gender, politics, religion, and so much more!

Fuck a duck