US Politics

If not Biden then who? Harris presumably but I've no idea what her polling is like.

Harris looks an even bigger liability than Biden!

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I agree it's a bad decision, but who else is there for the dems who might have a chance of winning? It's pretty thin - Gavin Newsom maybe. It's quite depressing.

Wasn’t John Fetterman an outside bet before he took some medical leave?

Kamala Harris has been largely invisible other than that Taiwan visit.

Clinton H cast a shadow over potential Democratic nominees that discouraged all but Bernie Sanders.
No other Democrat has flourished during the Trump (mal) administration.
Which Democrat has increased their national visibility under Biden?
Apart from Gavin Newsom I'm hard pressed to name a Democratic Governor.

Booker or Buttigieg?

Mayor Pete, fuck me, what a joke.

The Dems have no one else lined up, may as well stick with Joe. At least he has name recognition. Everyone else (apart from Bernie, obvs) is a damp squib.

That said, it would be fucking hilarious for Hillary to run against Trump and lose for a second time.

Is there precedent in a sitting President not running though? Perhaps there's a thought that not doing it casts a lack of confidence in the current administration, putting the next candidate on the back foot from the outset

edit: I don't think there is - all the single term presidents recently tried for re-election

This was my feeling. A party not putting their existing candidate forward seems ripe for the other side to rip into and knock any confidence the public may have had in them.

Maybe 6 haven't run for a second term. None since Johnson I don't think.

His launch tweet is such odd language given the situation.

Every generation has a moment where they have had to stand up for democracy.

Surely that's just helping highlight how fucking old he is. His generations moment to 'stand up for democracy' was last 30 years and look where that's got us.

It's disingenuous bullshit, as ever.

Elisabeth Warren as president and Buttigieg as VP?

The voters the dems need to attract are young ones, 30 or younger. They don’t give a shit about other generations and are sick of hearing about “in my day” and “when I was your age”.
They are overwhelmed with their own problems.
Dragging up this other generation shit alienates them.

Bernie + Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to attract younger voters?

Tbh I'm surprised at most political parties uselessness at having people lined up to lead. It's the same thing here in Sweden. Some parties have to sack their leader and then they nominate someone that literally no one knows about. They might be known among politicians, but had more or less zero visibility for common folk

Is AOC old enough to run for VP?

She's 33 so maybe we should give 40 if not 50 years...

Bernie + Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to attract younger voters?

And (rightly or wrongly) turn off the swing voters / purple states presumably?

Is that what will happen?

So the dems needs someone young and forward-thinking enough to attract people under 30 whilst also attracting the middle aged / older / more conservative swing voters?

Is that what will happen?

No idea to be honest. It's somewhat akin to what happened here in the UK wasn't it with Corbyn, but I don't know if it would be as extreme a loss at that in swing states as it was here. It's got to be a fear though.

So the dems needs someone young and forward-thinking enough to attract people under 30 whilst also attracting the middle aged / older / more conservative swing voters?

That sounds about right - some unicorn appealing to as much of their consituency as possible..

Biden is not going to do any debates. He would obviously get roasted by Kennedy.

Kennedy will get zero publicity, any that he does get will focus on his anti-vax stance, not on any other issues! If he does start to get some traction, it could get interesting, but I think it's unlikely. The Dems have these things locked down harder than the Republicans.

They might be known among politicians, but had more or less zero visibility for common folk

Tony Blair had very little recognition value when he became Labour leader. You didn't have to like him (I didn't) to recognise his effectiveness in office.

I think the rise in populism has hurt all parties in this respect, even the ones who don't have populists in their own front rank.

Also, is VP the most powerful AOC could be? Wouldn't she be able to accomplish more as a senator? I don't know American politics to that level of detail, but a couldn't a senator with a sometimes adversary position towards a president from her own party in some instances be more effective than a VP just coyly following her boss?

Swing voters don't exist. Or, at least, they don't exist in numbers that are significant enough to influence elections above other factors. Swing voters win elections which is why being a big centrist who appeals to nobody is super important is nothing but received wisdom, and is pretty much the principle reason why Hillary Clinton got beaten by a man with holes in his brain.

What matters is who can motivate their voters and get them to the polls. Red meat for the base. I.e. #berniewouldvewon

I note this producer who worked for Tucker Carlsen for years is complaining that she 'felt terrible' every time she heard him using words like 'bitch' and 'cunt' behind the scenes:

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/apr/26/tucker-carlson-fired-text-message-fox-executive

I further note that she has stated no such discomfort with facilitating his daily racist rants about the Great Replacement and the Big Lie. My enemy's enemy etc...