US Politics

Ah 2020, woke up to election chaos (predicted chaos), went for a run in the sunshine to feel better, turned my computer back on and got the email that half my team of 10 have just been furloughed.

Not convinced America will be fucked under another 4 years of Trump rather the rest of the world will have to suffer as a result of them taking any means to improve their situation.

It's the middle of the night. I don't expect they'll come out till the result has been 'stolen' - if they do at all.
So, say tomorrow afternoon (UK), the final counts come through from Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan giving Biden 270 - Trump meltdown and then things could get worse.

Biggest story seems to be robocalls telling people to protect themselves from COVID by waiting until tomorrow to vote.

some early reports of Robocalls going out in some states telling voters that lines were v. long and to come and vote tomorrow for their own safety. FBI investigating.

strong use of modernist poetry.

I lived in Italy under Berlusconi. (Part of it). And there were Berlusconi supporters who fully acknowledged his ties with the mafia. But their logic was that "Look, there will always be mafia, always has been. At least our guy knows how to deal with them. He knows them inside out, he's got their number. If we put some terrified little socialist in charge, or a Christian Democrat geek, the mafia will practically take over. Our guy Silvio, they don't fuck with him. How do you think a guy from the south could get so rich and powerful in the first place?".

Same could become "true" for Trump and the far right - and the NY mob for that matter.

There's plenty of South Africans I don't see eye to eye with. My late grandfather's sister for one.
It was so bad that neither her or my great grandparents attend my their wedding. Fuck em I say.

Millions of votes to still count in Philly and Pittsburgh and even Atlanta’s suburbs. I am hopeful.

Millions of votes to still count in Philly and Pittsburgh and even Georgia’s suburbs. I am hopeful.

Fingers crossed! I'd also think that the expected vote count % are off with higher participation than expected. Not getting my hopes up yet though.

Yeah, I read that too come to think of it. In terms of manipulativeness it's not up there with what Cambridge Analytica and the Russians were up to in 2016. More trashy than nefarious.

Michigan outstanding votes just dropped massively. I've been watching the numbers on the Guardian page, last few updates:-

MI, Trump maj: 205843 with 970,000 remaining (Biden would need 60.61% of remaining ballots)
MI, Trump maj: 197925 with 923,000 remaining (Biden would need 60.72% of remaining ballots)
MI, Trump maj: 198646 with 860,000 remaining (Biden would need 61.55% of remaining ballots)
MI, Trump maj: 66094 with 700,000 remaining (Biden would need 54.72% of remaining ballots)

This is why it's too early to panic.

It's also exactly why Trump is claiming victory and a halt to proceedings already.

Still nervous though. America seems incapable of doing the right thing. Ironic coming from us though...

some cool news

What moral or legal basis does he have for stopping the count? Obviously it's none, but amazing that he got the neck to try his luck

He has zero basis to stop the count.

But he has legal recourse to contest swathes of ballots for lots of different and spurious reasons:

1. Faint postmark
   
2. Arrived after polls closed (even if posted before)
   
3. Signatures on slips being too faint
   
   

blah blah blah

All of them should be thrown out by a solid system but this is America so ... shrug

Me, earlier:

This is Trump's isn't it?

Having heard a bit more about these outstanding votes it's feeling like it might be a better result since then, though I don't think much has actually changed count wise.

From 5.38.. The US system is a nerds dream.

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I'm watching the CNN coverage. Looks quite convincing that Biden can take Michigan and Wisconsin.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/upshot/biden-pennsylvania-election-ballots.html

Wasn't the whole point of the electoral college to disenfranchise freed slaves from voting en masse in the south?
I don't understand why they don't just do the popular vote now.

As I understand it, essentially the rights of each individual state to make their own decisions re polling. The US is truly federal in this respect due to the origins of the United States of America.

Last time I had a conversation with a USA-ian about the electoral college system they mumbled something about it being in the constitution and therefore it couldn't be amended (yes, they even used the word "amended"). I didn't bother continuing the argument at this point.

(Not having a pot shot at USA-ians in particular, this country has its fair share of idiots.)

OK, numbers update.

Michigan outstanding votes just dropped massively. I've been watching the numbers on the Guardian page, last few updates:-

MI, Trump maj: 205843 with 970,000 remaining (Biden would need 60.61% of remaining ballots)
MI, Trump maj: 197925 with 923,000 remaining (Biden would need 60.72% of remaining ballots)
MI, Trump maj: 198646 with 860,000 remaining (Biden would need 61.55% of remaining ballots)
MI, Trump maj: 66094 with 700,000 remaining (Biden would need 54.72% of remaining ballots)

latest:-

MI, Trump maj: 55813 with 645,000 remaining (Biden would need 54.33% of remaining ballots)
MI, Trump maj: 44471 with 592,000 remaining (Biden would need 53.76% of remaining ballots)
MI, Trump maj: 12526 with 539,000 remaining (Biden would need 51.16% of remaining ballots)

NV + WI + MI is enough to win it for Biden.

If the NYtimes link up there is credible, and Pennsylvania is in play, then I feel very optimistic right now.

re congressional district vs electoral college