Labour Leadership 2016

I don't understand.

If I produce research which supports my initial contention it means I've proven my hypothesis.

Or are you claiming he's producing research which supports a contention, but that research has been manipulated to support a pre-existing contention?

We already know the media is biased, you have stated that you believe so too. The study provides evidence around this issue and tackles a specific area.

I don't know, I was asking a question really. To me if an organisation has an interest in reaching a particular outcome, it isn't suitably qualified to do the research, but I don't know how academia works, and as someone who works in the media I would never feel qualified to comment on it ;)

Seriously though if an academic type cared enough to have a look at the website and research I would be interested to know what they think.

I feel I'm derailing the thread so we should probably get back to this:

Back to the leadership - who believes Corbyn can defeat May in the next election? And if so, how?

If you've been following the EU referendum thread then you may have seen the conclusion that they're all racist idiots.

Labour still has a chance in these areas, there are a lot of people with long memories of Thatcher which rules out the tories. People want to know what politicians are going to do to help them out of poverty now.

Parties like UKIP have played up to this, they've focused on immediate concerns. Labour, and Corbyn in particular, are viewed as more concerned about their position on Cuba rather than the bloke in Blackpool.

Whether they've not got that message across because that isn't their message or because the media hasn't carried it is another issue.

Wants solutions, votes UKIP.

I agree with the issues but I honestly have no idea why people think Farage has solutions. So people rebel against "career politicians" (fair enough), don't want Labour as they feel forgotten (also correct in some areas) and forget about the Green party cos that's too progressive/educated/liberal/whatever.

There's a strong correlation between traditional/regressive/whatever you call them values and Brexit, and those groups won't vote for the Greens. Same in Norn Ire. So you need somebody who is seen as "one of us" without the whole regressiveness of no women's rights, no international cooperation, no multiculturalism and so on. Not an easy feat...

Farage has quit, I was listening to one of the UKIP leadership contenders on radio 4 and I reckon they may hover up some of the traditional Labour support. All about social mobility and grammer schools and we're for the left behind. A clear and simple message that I think will play well. Not Farage like at all.

What is needed is a coherent counter argument that is just as clear and exposes them for the thatcherites that they are.

The argument noone is making while the left eats itself.

I agree with the issues but I honestly have no idea why people think Farage has solutions

Because he told them he did. Then he ran away and quit before he had to deliver them, just like the other Brexiteers. It's easy to tell people what they want to hear if you don't have moral qualms about then not delivering.

What is needed is a coherent counter argument that is just as clear and exposes them for the thatcherites that they are.

But it also needs to address the racisty bits. That's the hard part.

Just a bit of wordy reflection:

What people seem to be pushing for is engaging with their concerns as legitimate and trying to assuage fears - perhaps even make promises that accept them as legitimate fears. This has been what Labour and the Tories have been doing ("British jobs for British workers"; referendum on Brexit). It has resulted in a shift to the right, and the normalization of people saying shit things and being horrible.

Maybe the left needs to cut its losses and accept that ignorant racists aren't welcome, instead of constantly agonizing over how to win them over/back.

Of course, as has been discussed in the Brexit thread a number of times, not all ignorant racists are really ignorant racists. But the ones that aren't really ignorant racists are surely more likely to see the error of their ways when their perspectives are dismissed for being the trash they are, rather than legitimizing their concerns and trying to bribe them back in.

Essentially, ignore those who've fled to the right (it's unlikely Labour will be able to out-Right Ukip anyway). Work to help everyone (even the racists) by fighting inequality.

(Which, ironically, may be what your point was to begin with, before I forced in the racist-clause).

I am more than willing to give a new party a chance, but reading up on UKIP conflicted with that they said. Getting rid of FPTP would have exposed them for the scam they are.

Farage's track record in the EU where they did get voted in shows unwillingess to try to exert at least something. Doesn't bother showing up, doesn't bother going for a small win...doesn't scream "hardworking for the people".

Doesn't bother his hole but that's OK cos "EU" ;)

UKIP person I was listening to had this whole 'we're not racist' script based around how many councillors etc were from ethnic minorities. It worked as a messaged if you're not inclined to dig into it more. It's there to be grabbed if you want to vote UKIP but you don't want to feel racist/be racist.

It made me think that UKIP have a real chance to be the party of the working class or the party of the disadvantaged or something like that if they pitch it well enough. Of course the SE based loonies could always undermine it.

I think it was this guy I was listening to. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Woolfe

Woolfe, the eldest of a family of four, was born in Moss Side, in Manchester, and grew up in Burnage.[3] His younger half-brother footballer Nathan Woolfe, who represented Bolton Wanderers and Stockport County as a striker.[4] Both his parents were born in Manchester, his mother to an Irish mother and English father and his father to a British Jewish mother and a Black American father.[5]

has the potential to really undermine the Labour vote.

UKIP benefited from there being no chance of being elected. They didn't really have to bother about coherent strategies, costings, etc, they just had to say the right thing.

The BNP being elected in Burnley council elections was the beginning of the end for them as a credible option because they were shit at doing anything. The Greens are finding it much more difficult in Brighton after being elected.

Maybe http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36937476

"I'm not racist but immigrants these days aren't like my parents and lazy/don't speak English?"...? ;)

But perhaps that is true integration...you are now so native you "other" immigrants.

http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/watch-thousands-turn-out-support-11692191

10,000 communist brick throwers turn out in Liverpool for Corbyn rally.

Economist on Corbyn's economics advisory panel says Corbyn doesn't have an economic policy
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/02/i-advised-jeremy-corbyn-economics-team-learn-fast--no-credible-plan-labour-leadership

Re: Jones' questions yesterday. This is pretty good for not being shouty and having some thoughtful interactions in the comments.

http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.co.uk/2016/08/some-answers-to-owen-jones-questions.html?m=1

I've read this story in different pieces at least twice now and I would be lying of I didn't say it's probably the most disappointing thing about the entire Corbyn experiment (IMO). Excellent plan that didn't play it.

But the ones that aren't really ignorant racists are surely more likely to see the error of their ways when their perspectives are dismissed for being the trash they are

Disagree quite strongly here. Abusing them drives them further into the arms of the racists and leads to a bunker mentality - I think that's what we saw with the referendum and what we're seeing with Trumpism in the US.

rather than legitimizing their concerns and trying to bribe them back in.

But on this I agree. I think the left needs to come up with an economic plan that reconciles those who have benefited from globalisation with those who haven't, and that plan needs to rise above this petty obsession with migrant numbers and move the debate away from dogwhistle racism. Properly funding our public services to deal with an aging population is probably an important part of that.

A big part of my problem with the Labour Party right now is that they're doing pitifully little to shift the debate (and, frankly, I don't have much faith in Owen Smith either, but at least he might break the current logjam)

Say JC does win again.

How does he stop lots of MPs splintering off? Could he enforce reselection or by-elections? Or can only the MP themselves decide to stand down?

Obvs he could try to unite them, but I somehow doubt that would work.

Say JC does win again.

He will win.

How does he stop lots of MPs splintering off? Could he enforce reselection or by-elections? Or can only the MP themselves decide to stand down?

I think the local party can deselect an mp. Not sure of the process but it feels like local parties currently have the will. If this happens then the incumbent MP's should be free to run as independents or for another party (?). Split vote etc.

Obvs he could try to unite them, but I somehow doubt that would work.

That ship has sailed.

He will win.

I don't want either of them.

I'm putting my vote up for sale

Part of me thinks/hopes a split will, ironically, allow the left to come together and campaign for electoral reform.