EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

see: #9116

how was cuntapalooza at your gaf? sorry i missed it.

it was good, 'cept I didn't go to bed the night before. t-mex went into stevie wonder mode, mrak was sensible. much japes.

two all nighters sat me on my pipe.

Richard the I was french tho. Wasnt he?
Didn't he have long ginger hair.

Is brm akshially related?

and he's been in french speaking arthouse movies...

Just leaving this here... another Brexiteer who thinks the govt has lost the plot:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/vote-leave-campaign-chief-dominic-cummings-says-theresa-mays-brexit-plan-is-unacceptable-b_uk_5963597ae4b0d5b458eb9f16

Table Tennis does a Brexit

https://tabletennisengland.co.uk/news/featured-news/table-tennis-england-statement/

They'll declare themselves bankrupt, then mysteriously rise from the ashes as GB Wiff Waff.

https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/884474494512975872

oh dear oh dear oh dear. A whole lot of UK supported EU policies that the UK gov / leavers departments now complains about... gems such as Turkey and common fishing included.

Ah well.

Yes, I saw that yesterday. A good thread. And, of course, sad.

I've read a lot of people say (of Financial Services, where I work) that companies will set up satellite HQs in European companies but mostly stay in London. A few hundred people will move give or take.

Here's an alternative to that, where the JP Morgan boss suggests that the majority of jobs will be at risk:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-latest-jobs-jp-morgan-us-bank-moving-staff-eu-a7836366.html

I cant fathom how this is surprising, also fuck Jamie Dimon

I can't go into specifics for confidentiality reasons but in my dealings with various Whitehall departments, I'm starting to hear "we can't do that any more, we're all having to focus on Brexit now".

Unfortunately, some of the things that can't be done are the very jobs that those civil servants are supposed to do. It feels, from my limited exposure, that we're already running out of civil servants and I suspect that it is going to turn into a bit of a shit show. A lot of important things are being shelved.

Quite. What are the barriers really?

Inertia? Office Space? Schools for your workers? They don't really sound much like the sort of thing that a multinational bank would consider a serious reason to stay located somewhere for any more than a few years.

(Not a fatcat btw, just don't want to have to emigrate)

"If the EU determines over time that they want to start to move a lot more jobs out of London and into the EU, they can simply dictate that,"

? Euroclearings may be lost but the rest of the risks can be mitigated if the UK negotiating team pulls it's arse out of its behind?

They are exactly some of the things that big multinational banks need to think about. They need to consider staff retention, especially when their most experienced and highest revenue generating employees have enough wealth to just walk away from it all. At the bottom end, we've all seen outsourcing, off shoring, near shoring etc with sometimes a take it or leave it attitude but this time, it's not these jobs that are moving.

Minus inertia all of these things are available in Europe. I worked operations side for Chase in financial services for a few years in the states. I can say from experience I will be shocked if they stay. No way financial services isn't getting gutted by brexit. It isn't even punitive, just logical to draw the jobs and tax revenue back to member states.

In the short term, sure. But over the five ish years I guess it would take to effect a move? Once they pull the trigger on moving and start going, stuff like 'office space' and 'staff retention' will appear as milestones on a massive plan and I'd have thought they could be hit relatively easily, and a lot of them with help from the govts of the areas they move to.

It seems pretty imminent according to articles like this: http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN19W1VS?utm_source=34553&utm_medium=partner

Edit: Also, would they opt for or a number of smaller centres around the place? Would they make the same decisions in concentrating such a lot of the industry in one country again given it's vulnerability to something like this?

It isn't even punitive, just logical to draw the jobs and tax revenue back to member states.

Quite. I mean, why wouldn't you?

after boris the clown says the eu can go and whistle if they think are getting any of our hard earned cash

eu negotiator barnier says " i'm not hearing whistling, just the clock ticking "

who put boris in charge, he was fine as the jovial toff on have i got news for you, but foreign secretary we are going to get mullered

It's a good line. Johnson's didn't even have that going for it.

Seriously I can not understand how at least privately the leadership isn't treating all of this more seriously.

They probably are but have no answer to it.

or none of this really affects them or anyone they give a shit about so why not treat it like top-japes?

Or that they don't win in London anyway, so it doesn't matter about shedding support there? Are they that partisan?