EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

So you're saying... all of the above and then some?

You mean a magic state of affairs under which everyone is happy?

Sign me up. I offer the customary fiddy dorrah

I think that the point that he is making is that leavers may be willing to pay an economic cost for sovereignty so the skyrocketing cost of petrol, Marmite and ice creams on the Costa del Sol will not deter their resolve.

I think that their will be a cataclysmic amount of anger if petrol prices go up, it's an infringement of our basic human rights - petrol should get cheaper with Brexit as those forrins aren't pushing the prices up by reasons.

Well, Left Exit hinged a lot of the things I mentioned.
We are getting a demented right wing exit.

So out of curiosity (and no I would not have voted out anyway as left has no plan B...) is there something we would be willing to pay for?

Reform of the voting system is something more concrete, being able to offer companies state help... some people are basically saying this is THE opportunity to reform the UK.

Again I am playing devil's advocate, the issue and blessing of the EU is that everything is a compromise, which means it's all sorta boring and works. You won't get fascism or communism.

Well this person lost it in any case ;)

This. SO MUCH THIS.

Silver linings.

Are oil futures paid for on delivery or purchase?

A margin is paid on purchase and the balance settled at expiry. Very few futures contracts are ever delivered - they're a hedging instrument.

you could do either, if your trading OTC futures, but more likely you are trading exchange traded futures

OTC forwards =\= exchange-traded futures.

Oil exposure is generally hedged forward in the futures market (the exchange-traded stuff) but the physical supply is bought more promptly in the OTC market.

Retail prices can sometimes react very quickly to prices in the physical wholesale market, but because most exposure is hedged way in advance, retailers can and often do choose to delay the price hikes until their hedges run out, which may take a few months.

e.g. about right now.
Let's call it a 20% currency drop and a 10% increase in oil price since the referendum. I'd say that a hike is imminent.

I'd agree that it's likely to happen soon.

As well as OPEC agreeing on a strategy and maybe pulling the Russians in, we're coming out of refinery turnaround season which usually results in an uptick in crude demand and hence prices (mixed for products prices though as petrol/diesel etc production picks up when the refineries are back online).

Add the devaluation into that and you have refiners coming back into the market with much higher costs in GBP terms, so yes, autumn hikes seem quite likely to me.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-37634338

"the Tories do not have a mandate to take us out of the single market"

Shots fired.
Meanwhile those useless fuckwits of the DUP over here are sitting on their hands...

I keep reading (most recently that fucking hypocritical arse Dacre's front page in the Mail) that the 52% result is an undeniable, irreproachable, huge mandate from the people.

Never mind that it represents only about a third of the populace, but I seem to remember that during the Scottish IndyRef when Yes looked like it might win by a couple of percentage points Cameron came out and said that any result less than 60% would not be legitimate and that anyway, the referendum was not legally binding.

Why the fuck are we now in a situation where not just matters pertaining to the EU, but UK's entire foreign policy, trade and economy has been delegated to a collection of talentless has-beens that May's scraped off the toilet floor of political ignominy, reanimated and let loose on Westminster far beyond any kind of mandate, in spite of the huge lies told in the referendum by Leave, and against her own party's fucking election promise to remain in the single market?

Anyone would think that what's good for the goose isn't necessarily good for the gander and there's a massive constitutional heist in progress?

"Anyone would think that what's good for the goose isn't necessarily good for the gander and there's a massive constitutional heist in progress?"

Yes. This whole "we will revoke all EU related laws (oh, priorities does that include labour protection for us commons?)" and Davis Davis saying there will be no parliamentary involvement on trade deals is not exactly confidence inspiring.

https://www.change.org/p/stop-article-50-from-being-invoked-last-and-only-option-to-stop-brexit

Hooray, a change.org petition rides to the rescue!

There's also a court case going on, about whether there should be a Parliamentary vote:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/13/government-cannot-trigger-brexit-without-mps-backing-court-told-article-50

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-london-businesswoman-leading-legal-challenge-against-theresa-may-sent-death-threats-and-a3368756.html

The Government's case seems hopelessly weak:

But Government lawyers are arguing that if Ms Miller and her supporters' legal challenge succeeds, the Government "could not give effect to the will and decision of the people, as clearly expressed in the referendum, to withdraw from the EU without further primary legislation".

Clearly scared MPs will get uppity.

Bloody EU, forcing us to clean up our beaches:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/13/the-eus-effect-on-blackpools-beaches-before-and-after-pictures

http://news.sky.com/story/fuel-prices-to-soar-by-5p-a-litre-within-weeks-after-pound-slump-10612999

Sounds about right. And that may just be the start of it.

The sooner the better, people never liked it when they realised their vote increase their petrol price.

Luckily I've just bought a car with a large petrol engine. Oh, wait.

We are getting a demented right wing exit.

Are we?

10% flat rate IT, close to 0% CT, market deregulation, and positioning ourselves as the Singapore of Europe, etc. is what one of the few leave voters I knew was after.

I'd say we're getting an authoritarian exit.

Lol.

This petition will be delivered to:

Former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party
David Cameron MP

WTF will he do with it?

I daresay he will file it in that special round filing cabinet on the floor by his desk.

How different do you think ASEAN is from the EU? Without ASEAN membership Singapore wouldn't have the clout it has in SEA that it has today.