EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Anyone still confident Article 50 won't be triggered? The loons have got hold of the Tory party and the country.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/02/brexit-theresa-may-prioritises-immigration-curbs-over-free-movement

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37532364

Brexit in march 2017.
Christ on a push-bike. Well...she can say what she wants, but the court cases who triggers article 50 must have concluded then I guess?

It's all talk at the moment. Getting any of the legislation required through parliament is not a given at this stage, as their is a significant majority of MPs who are opposed to Brexit and the Tory majority is small.

The Lords, especially, could put up significant opposition as the Conservatives committed to remaining in the single market in their 2015 manifesto, so that raises interesting questions under the Salisbury convention. @Bad_Science probably knows much more about this though.

Making 'hard' the initial direction so that Nissan and so on leave, the outlook turns bleak and appetite drops? That's what the optimist inside me says, but fuck knows.

I can't remember reading what happens if, at the end of the two years, we change our mind.

I can't remember reading what happens if, at the end of the two years, we change our mind.

No-one has a clue. On either side.

This. They're all blundering around in the dark. The stupid ones are blindly optimistic, the brighter ones are worried. But none of them really knows what they're doing. How could they?

My understanding is that we're into uncharted waters there.

Article 50 says nothing on it, nor does anything else. The default position at the end of 24 months is that you're out. Even an extension on the 24 months requires all 27(?) other nations in the EU to agree to it.

I can't see a way back once its started, but this is the EU, who are famous for political comebacks, so...

http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128
Welcome back to world of Certifcates of Conformity,
(often 'administered' by a swanky office in Bayswater,
with no apparent testing equipment,
allegedly).

This is worth 5 minutes of your time if you're interested in how our Government approach EU negotiations.

http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/why-27-are-taking-hard-line-brexit

^ good analysis.

The point at the end about politeness fills me with fear. Johnson, Fox and Davis will put EU diplomats teeth on edge. Frankly Osborne should have got the job of foreign secretary, and have been charged with the negotiations.

A slightly longer read that I need to get round to:

http://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/UserStorage/pdf/Pdf%20reports/160930-CSJJ4877_Brexit_essay_collection_0916_WEB.pdf

This pamphlet provides the underpinnings for a hard Brexit.

Don't see any value in Osborne,
who will be more than busy looking for a safe seat when Tatton disappears in the boundary changes, and has a track record of lobbying for UK-based banksters against EU limits on their bonusses, and gifting Google their sweetheart UK tax deal.
Or, are you suggesting his sniffy habit gives him an unforeseen advantage?

Perhaps wrong place to ask, but if I were to register as living at a friend's place in France/open dormant bank account etc now, would this act as some kind of insurance policy against Brexit happening in 2 years through being able to claim citizenship or does the proof/requirements go much further than being able to show you've lived at an address?

Really not looking forward to finishing this Masters and finding that my employment prospects have been irreversibly tied to a gratuitously self sabotaged economy in a country run by over privileged cunts.

Based upon anecdata of mate who has been resident in south west France just over 10 years,
even in his bit of French Basque country, post referendumb vote, French bureaucracy for Citizenship is in full I-dotting/T-crossing overdrive. Wasted a day driving to Pau, nearest, large-enough administrative centre to administer required 'So you want to be a Citizen' interview and comprehension exam.
(French-born & educated wife of his retired UK diplomat neighbour attempted online revision version and scored only 60%).
Could ask him some questions for you, if beneficial, of other requirements.

Would be interested to hear from someone who's done it for sure-thank you. If it's enough to say 'I've been living here for 2 years pre-Brexit so don't chuck me out' then maybe I don't even need full citizenship, I just want to cover my bases so I won't be prevented from looking for jobs there without having a fucking visa.

Up till now I never believed the Tories/May would be stupid enough to do it-like she was just playing along to gain time-but it actually appears like they've drunk the Special Brexit Edition jingoistic Robinsons squash and are plunging ahead for fear of losing control of the party.

I'm not one for hyperbole, but this has to be the biggest political error of judgement since Chamberlain, no? If you told me a year ago that the Tory party would be causing untold damage to the interests of the business community for the sake of appeasing a few populists I'd have said you were mad.

But here we are, watching them commit economic self harm because too many of the population believed the right wing media's constant blaming of migrants for the nations ills.

we're fucked lol.

You are spot on.

The ideologically pure Brexiteers have got control of the steering wheel though, and they actually believe the hype that we have a glorious economic future when we can deregulate, do direct FTA, and hand pick our immigrants from around the world.

Whereas this is the moment when we chose irreversibly to consign ourselves to being a backwater in terminal decline.

Any Irish grandparents? That seems to be the easiest route if so.

Irish great-great grandparents, think that one might be a bit far-removed though : /

It's almost like they've engineered some kind of coup... A PM who's never won an election simply stating that she alone has the power to pick up the phone to Mr Juncker say 'we're out' and apparently that's enough. No one wants to argue with it. And this on the back of a 52% 'majority' in an advisory vote.

I'm just hoping that at some point the Tories actually stop and listen to their owners (you, know, the City etc), but I'm no longer holding my breath.

My lot are Scottish - early on I thought that might be a good route out, but looks like that's going to be blocked too!

Soon: Fake marriages to EU nationals for UK citizens :P

I can't believe May's going for it, this is gonna end so badly... Deluded Rule Britannia idiots, shooting themselves in the foot... Why?!?

for all that sweet, sweet sovereignty, obvs.

and all those ukip / racist cunt votes they've hemorrhaged of late.

lets be honest - stay / leave / whatever, none of it is going to bite tory MP's or their immediate circle of friends on the arse.