EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

I don't accept this is the economic position of most people who voted Brexit. I haven't seen any exhaustive research or breakdown of the Brexit cohort, so can admittedly only fall back on anecdata. I watched Adrian Chiles' documentary on Brexit voters in Birmingham. One couple owned a house and had just bought a narrow boat. Another was a pub landlord with a thriving business.

You can't cite an extreme group of dickheads

What evidence do we have that they are atypical rather than typical?

There weren't 17m of them

He wasn't describing most people who voted Brexit. He was describing the circumstances of the English thugs you posted about upthread. Don't reparse the question after it's been answered.

And it isn't an either or situation. Some people will be culturally nationalistic, some will be economically suffering and dislocated, some will be a bit of both. However it isn't even that simple. "Culturally nationalistic" and "economically suffering and dislocated" aren't absolute. They're scales and people can appear at any point on both at the same time.

Nice

Fair point - though I doubt that was the economic position of most of the football hooligans either.

Never project presumed stereotypes on other people. Ever. Just don't do it. It's an all round bad idea. Really, never ever. Just NO.

What stereotype am I projecting? All my argument extends to is that some people who demonstrably voted Brexit (hooligans chanting; people on Adrian Chiles' documentary) aren't under the extreme economic duress that is supposed to have governed their decision to vote leave.

I wonder how many of the "hooligans chanting" actually voted. And of those, what the leave /remain spilt was.

The Lord Ashcroft Exit poll offers some stats on Remain/exit. It's only one sample, obv, but there are differences in how both groups see for example feminism/multiculturalism. But also income.

There is analysis that in some parts people see the EU as too capitalistic
Some others see it as voting against the establishment
Lefties on my FB page see it as a protest vote/or a vote to take back control from EU austerity
Some don't like the EU structure, while acknowledging the UK has similar issues.

Now if all the football hooligans vote UKIP then they are 95% exit ;)

I don't accept this is the economic position of most people who voted Brexit.

That's cool, it's not a contradiction of your argument or mine.

But... you did specifically cite an example of the yobs in Marseilles and that is what I was responding to. I also do not think for a moment that that group of people reflect those who voted leave.

(tech jobs in Spain are currently offering more than tech jobs in the City of London)

That article was panned over on HN with no evidence of those high salaries being offered at all.

2:45...

https://youtu.be/_H8T8XSk78M

I realise that some aspects of the article were panned, other aspects backed up, a general "we're staying in SV|Berlin|London" vibe. But that's the modern press for you and modern forums too... who knows what is real or not, but it's all little grains of anecdote and data that shapes pictures, and no-one is actually disagreeing with the fundamental premise of the article that the majority of those unemployed do not have the skills the workplace offer (even though most disagree with the anecdotal evidence of salaries on offer).

Managed 25 seconds.

It's a collection of Daily Mail and Sun headlines spliced into a political philosophy. It's amazing in a way.

it goes some way evidencing what an utterly awful fucking idea referendumbs are (dyswidt)

also: dem fingernails

But also how awful limited sample sizes with no comparison on the make-up of the whole of the UK are ;)

The main issue with this referendum was that leave bar lying promised several things. So some people voted because of 1 (sovereignity, cough), some 2 (immigration!), some wanted to keep more cash in UK 3 (EEC fees), some 4 people who voted NO in 1975 and think the world is still the same.

So you get 1-4 in one handy bundle with a few people truly voting for fundamental issues with the EU.

And of 1-4 SOME will get something. Maybe...and then can point to politics as usual/blame the EU negotiations and the EU rather than a pisspoor plan. [must not godwin again]

Where do you draw the line? Your neighbours in your street or town,
your cousins, your siblings, your children, your wife? Who should you
care for over and above you?

This whole 'we'll keep the foreigners out' thinking is totally flawed. If you ever want to actually stop the free movement of people into the UK you'd need to deal with Ireland.

We have a longstanding agreement with Ireland (not the EU, direct with themm the Isle of Man etc.) called the Common Travel Area (CTA). The UK Border Force doesn't carry out routine immigration checks on travellers arriving into the UK from the CTA - you can literally walk from Ireland into Northern Ireland.

Ireland isn't going to stop EU citizens entering Ireland and, therefore, the CTA.

There is only one way to stop EU citizens entering the UK via the CTA from Ireland and that is to end the CTA, which would mean bringing back the border controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland. I.e. remilitarise the border, like in the days of the troubles.

Do you really think that's ever going to happen?

It's more likely that will be solved by the reunification of Ireland as a consequence of Brexit.

It may solve itself in a way. Though it will require tearing up and renegotiating things with Ireland.

Where have I said keep the foreigners out?

keep the foreigners out

Busted.

Despite the downturn in UK finances, reunification looks like an economic shitshow for both parts of Ireland. More likely we'll hang out NI to dry if we decide to restrict immigration and exit the CTA.

You're arguing against the free movement of people from Europe into the UK.

Those people are not British so are foreign. I can't see how my paraphrasing is in any way unfair.

I'm waiting for your solution to the CTA problem.

Also incredibly unlikely. Do you really think the UK government is going to hand Northern Ireland back now? After everything?

This is the problem with the Leave campaign. It's all totally unworkable, there is no plan, none of them have thought it through at all.